A quick look ahead at the coming 2021 Capocalypse

[ctpatsfan77]

This is admittedly a crude calculation, with stats from Overthecap.com.

	2020 cap, as of 12/10/19​	2021 cap, as of 12/5/20​
Total players under contract	1,320​	1,272​
Teams under salary cap	30​	22​
Combined salary cap for teams under cap	$1.6 billion​	$728 million​
Teams over salary cap	2​	10​
Combined amount needed to get under salary cap	$2.5 million​	$279 million​
Average salary cap available per team	$50 million​	$14 million (all 32) $33 million (22 under cap)​

 

[DarrylS]

Fortunately the New England Patriots are not one of the teams over the cap..

According to Over the Cap they are 68 million under the cap. the 10 teams over are Minn., Las Vegas, Houston, KC, LA Rams, Packers, Steelers, Falcons, Eagles and the Saints..

Of course my understanding about all of this pales in comparison to the wisdom of our resident Capologist, Miguel.

 

[Triumph]

The Saints are heading to cap hell again after getting out just several years ago.

2020 is truly Super Bowl or bust for New Orleans.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Saints are heading to cap hell again after getting out just several years ago.

2020 is truly Super Bowl or bust for New Orleans.

and strangely enough the Iggles are also in cap hell $65 million over), at least the Saints can cut there way our of it, I tried the calculator at OVC and I couldn't cut enough Iggles to get them under the salary cap! they are going to have to restructure a bunch of contracts.

They have some uncutable contracts for Wentz, old pal Lane Johnson, Hargrave and Brooks, all have very high cap numbers but even higher numbers if they are cut!

Ertz and Barnett are both going to have to be cut!

 

[Pape]

from a player perspective, if there are going to be multiple hard hit teams look for the league to "borrow" from future years... so if its a 20=2 million dollar difference (basically thats what otc is showing - 198 to 176) figure that 5+/- million from the next 5 years will be deducted from the cap, so the projected 227m in 2022 will be 222m instead... they could even spread it out over the next 9 years, the remaining duration of the cba i guess... but i think the players would have to bend a bit to get that kind of concession from the owners

from an owner perspective its a good way to shed bad contracts ... players with big guarantees could be cut under the guise of the cap reduction ... not a great way to maintain a good working relationship with the players, but some of the owners do have some big debt service, especially those paying off their new stadiums...

 

[Nikolai]

I first read this as "CATpocalypse" and thought @SammyBlueCat started this thread for some reason.

All the doom and gloomers around here haven't been paying attention to this fact. The Pats are not in a terrible position this offseason, while several contenders are. As was mentioned above, I expect the league to bail them out somehow.

 

[TomPatriot]

Steelers and KC are over? That’s a shame. I feel bad.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

and strangely enough the Iggles are also in cap hell $65 million over), at least the Saints can cut there way our of it, I tried the calculator at OVC and I couldn't cut enough Iggles to get them under the salary cap! they are going to have to restructure a bunch of contracts.

They have some uncutable contracts for Wentz, old pal Lane Johnson, Hargrave and Brooks, all have very high cap numbers but even higher numbers if they are cut!

Ertz and Barnett are both going to have to be cut!

$213 million for top 13 players....Cap hell an no way out. cpuldn't happen to a nicer bunch...
having fun yet, Lane???

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Steelers and KC are over? That’s a shame. I feel bad.

I think Pat Mahomes deal escalates like $10M in both 2021 and 2022, and KC is not in a "win now" position like the Saints with Brees. It always happens, when the rookie QB deal is over the cuts happen and the team is still good, but not great. Look at Seattle after 2 straight Super Bowl appearances.

Ideally a team would find a QB in the first round every 4 years, extend the experienced QB for his 5th year, and after the 5th year, fall back to the new QB in his 2nd year. Of course finding a 1st round QB every year is not likely but this illustration shows how crippling the $40M+ veteran QB salary can be. Everyone always says it is a "no brainer", but that $40M+ salary is a dead weight on the salary cap.

 

[Ross12]

The Eagles situation is very strange. What happens if they can't get under the cap with cuts, and none of the players will agree to a restructure? The team has no way to actually become compliant... what happens then? I'll have to do some googling...

If teams in general are not bailed out, NE is in an extremely advantageous position to scoop up scheduled FAs on the market and also veteran players who are dumped as cap casualties by other teams (there will be many). If teams are bailed out, NE has a smaller advantage but will still have one - they'll have a huge amount of money available while many other teams may only be able to swing a couple moves.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

from a player perspective, if there are going to be multiple hard hit teams look for the league to "borrow" from future years... so if its a 20=2 million dollar difference (basically thats what otc is showing - 198 to 176) figure that 5+/- million from the next 5 years will be deducted from the cap, so the projected 227m in 2022 will be 222m instead... they could even spread it out over the next 9 years, the remaining duration of the cba i guess... but i think the players would have to bend a bit to get that kind of concession from the owners

The $175M number is after the league did this. . . .

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Cannon + LaCosse + Bolden = $10M more in Cap savings if cut, but you have to pay someone to fill those positions. Hightower is an additional $10M all by himself if cut. So the Pats are presently $60.5M under the Cap, and if all four players are cut, the Pats will be $81M under the cap. Of course they have to pay a QB, or two, still . Overall in great shape to make a bunch of FA signings which BB is quite good at identifying.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The Eagles situation is very strange. What happens if they can't get under the cap with cuts, and none of the players will agree to a restructure? The team has no way to actually become compliant... what happens then? I'll have to do some googling...

If teams in general are not bailed out, NE is in an extremely advantageous position to scoop up scheduled FAs on the market and also veteran players who are dumped as cap casualties by other teams (there will be many). If teams are bailed out, NE has a smaller advantage but will still have one - they'll have a huge amount of money available while many other teams may only be able to swing a couple moves.

I think teams can "incentivize" a restructuring by adding more guaranteed money and/or add more overall money. I think players will sign a restructure in exchange for more guaranteed money, but I take your point which would be curious if it happened.

 

[Pape]

The $175M number is after the league did this. . . .

whoa

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I think teams can "incentivize" a restructuring by adding more guaranteed money and/or add more overall money. I think players will sign a restructure in exchange for more guaranteed money, but I take your point which would be curious if it happened.

That is kicking the can down the road.....Howie Roseman gave lots of generous contracts post SB win and now it is coming back to bite them.....for years if they restructure.... That is only part of the problem. Front office drafted Hurts and Pederson played him sparingly ( 2 snaps last week) as a F U to the front office....... Fun to watch as a Pats fan.......

 

[DaBruinz]

Cannon + LaCosse + Bolden = $10M more in Cap savings if cut, but you have to pay someone to fill those positions. Hightower is an additional $10M all by himself if cut. So the Pats are presently $60.5M under the Cap, and if all four players are cut, the Pats will be $81M under the cap. Of course they have to pay a QB, or two, still . Overall in great shape to make a bunch of FA signings which BB is quite good at identifying.

This isn't correct. You are forgetting about the fact that when you remove a player, you have to bring one up that isn't being counted. And that number stands at $780K currently.

It's very unlikely that all 4 players you mentioned will be cut.
Cannon - 6.2M savings
LaCosse - $720K savings
Bolden - $760K savings
Hightower - 9.1M Savings.

With their salaries as low as they are, it's unlikely that Bolden and LaCosse will be cut prior to camp unless they fail their physicals.
People have mentioned DMac retiring. However, because of the structure of his contract, that only saves them 1.75M AND still have 8.5M in dead cap.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

This isn't correct. You are forgetting about the fact that when you remove a player, you have to bring one up that isn't being counted. And that number stands at $780K currently.

It's very unlikely that all 4 players you mentioned will be cut.
Cannon - 6.2M savings
LaCosse - $720K savings
Bolden - $760K savings
Hightower - 9.1M Savings.

With their salaries as low as they are, it's unlikely that Bolden and LaCosse will be cut prior to camp unless they fail their physicals.
People have mentioned DMac retiring. However, because of the structure of his contract, that only saves them 1.75M AND still have 8.5M in dead cap.

Do you even read the posts you comment on? My post says, "You have to pay someone to fill those positions".

Again this post is illustrative, figurative or exemplary, whichever phrase you prefer. My post says "if cut" twice to indicate that. Let's stop pretending like every post is literal.

 

[Ring 6]

This is admittedly a crude calculation, with stats from Overthecap.com.

	2020 cap, as of 12/10/19​	2021 cap, as of 12/5/20​
Total players under contract	1,320​	1,272​
Teams under salary cap	30​	22​
Combined salary cap for teams under cap	$1.6 billion​	$728 million​
Teams over salary cap	2​	10​
Combined amount needed to get under salary cap	$2.5 million​	$279 million​
Average salary cap available per team	$50 million​	$14 million (all 32) $33 million (22 under cap)​

What are you using for the 2021 cap number?

 

[lurker1965]

Now will FA's and their agents recognize the new reality. Coming up next on NFL offseason.

 

[Ring 6]

from a player perspective, if there are going to be multiple hard hit teams look for the league to "borrow" from future years... so if its a 20=2 million dollar difference (basically thats what otc is showing - 198 to 176) figure that 5+/- million from the next 5 years will be deducted from the cap, so the projected 227m in 2022 will be 222m instead... they could even spread it out over the next 9 years, the remaining duration of the cba i guess... but i think the players would have to bend a bit to get that kind of concession from the owners

from an owner perspective its a good way to shed bad contracts ... players with big guarantees could be cut under the guise of the cap reduction ... not a great way to maintain a good working relationship with the players, but some of the owners do have some big debt service, especially those paying off their new stadiums...

The owners won’t raise the cap over what the cba calls for without substantial concessions from the players.