A Little Lipstick for that Pig

[Oswlek]

Before I begin please allow me to offer a humble apology for the grief I’ve given a few posters who were particularly down on the receivers. That was the worst single game performance I’ve seen out of a Patriot WR corps in my lifetime. Simply dreadful. Maybe the 2006 crew would have looked as terrible the first few weeks had Brown, Faulk and the TEs not been around, but when the debate has gotten that far, it wasn’t a good night.

That said, as the title suggests, I’m about to embark on a quest to demonstrate that this might not be representative of how the 2013 season will play out.

Already down their top 5 receiving targets from last year, NE lost their two best receiving weapons from the Bills game and their only currently viable TE receiving threat. Tack on the fact that NY’s front seven is legit – the main reason why I predicted they would surprise people with an 8 win season – and you have the perfect storm for this offense. No run game, no TEs, limited RB receiving options… the only thing left were the wide receivers. Not only were we talking about green WRs, but green WRs who hardly even practiced for the game! NE’s total preparation for Jets amounted to two walk-throughs. In retrospect, is it really a surprise that NE looked good for a drive and then went down the tubes? Those were probably the only plays they were able to get down. Bill went into a gun fight with a sling-shot, knowing that there was a good chance his opponent's pistol would misfire. Thankfully, it worked.

None of this excuses the drops, of course. And maybe it would be harder to find a positive slant had the Jets drove for a game-winning TD at the end, but I did find it encouraging that Dobson was getting open regularly. For a guy who was last seen struggling to find headroom in a secondary of insurance salesmen and UPS drivers, he handled the jam cleanly and was able to get behind his defender often.

The misfire on 3rd and 14 particularly stood out for me. Aaron got past his CB easily enough (not the impressive part) forcing the safety came over. At that point, Dobson put a subtle move on that had the safety biting up, only to see Aaron blow right past him. It was the first time I’ve seen him make that kind of quick-twitch move instead of the lazy doubles that weren’t fooling anyone in the preseason.

Now, it is possible that making that stutter was what led him to be ever-so-slightly behind the pass instead of running right underneath it. But just knowing he has that in his bag of tricks makes me feel more confident than I was a week ago.

Of course, it wasn’t just Dobson that was struggling. Thompkins had an ugly drop (though it wouldn’t have converted the 3rd even if he got it) and failed to come up with several others as well. The overturned TD is probably the most memorable, and one can hardly fault Kenbrell for his effort there, but it is worth pointing out because it demonstrates another piece that was lacking last night, the timing between Brady and the receivers. Just like the rookies need time to acclimate to genuine NFL speed, it is going to take time for Brady to get used to his new toys in real games as well. Maybe once they are another 30 targets in, Tom takes a little off that throw and Thompkins doesn’t need to make an impossible catch.

I also think it is worth pointing out that Kenbrell looked more comfortable this week than he did in Buffalo. Maybe it was just a case of being at home, but if it was more a matter of adjusting to real bullets, that’s a positive sign, particularly when you consider that the team probably got limited film review of that game in, something that this long weekend affords them plenty of time for. Dobson had a similar first go of it as Thompkins did, so hopefully we’ll see an immediate uptick from him as well.

Some of this will settle once a few bodies return. Edelman isn’t a #1 target, but as a #3-#4 afterthought with Gronk, Amendola and Vereen on the field? He can do some damage. That would also allow the youngsters to slide into complimentary roles that suit their strengths. For now, though, we need to grasp as positives, hoping that they are good omens and accelerating lessons for the rookies.
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A note on the defense: I know there are reasons to discredit what they’ve done so far. Neither the Bills nor the Jets look to be offensive juggernauts, rookie QBs, etc. That said, despite however many brash callers on WEEI exclaim how Bill will have [young QB X]’s head spinning, history suggests the exact opposite. As a game plan team, the Patriots tend to play those unknowns as straight up as possible, particularly when you are talking about a mobile unknown. At that point it is a vanilla city. Few blitzes, minimal stunting, basic coverages, stay in your rush lane to avoid giving up a big scramble. Unknown QBs have been Bill’s non-Shannahan Kryptonite. Yes, they win most of them (same as they do against any QB) but we can all recall plenty of “how’d the hell they allow 250 yards to that guy?!” games. And when those games happen early in the season, one with a rookie head coach? Yowza. The 2011 defense would have left two ROTY campaigns trailing in its wake.

You also can’t overlook the fact that the Jets had sixteen – sixteen! – possessions Thursday night. And that they were often back on the field before moseying over for a Gatorade break. NE’s offense only had one drive the entire game last longer than three minutes; the 6 play, 14 yard conquest that rolled 3:15 off the clock before NY’s final drive. Seriously, read that again. Does anyone think that the Patriots win that game the past three years even against Geno Smith? I don’t.

I know we won’t know what they really have until going through the NFCS gauntlet that awaits in a few weeks. But I feel confident in already saying that this is the best unit NE has had for a while now. :rocker:

 

[jmt57]

Thanks much for the well thought out analysis.

An oasis in a desert of falling skies.

:eat3:

 

[supafly]

There are certainly positives, and I enjoyed reading your thoughts.

Only time will tell how it plays out, but I am a bit more down than I was coming off of week #1. That said, I guess I can't expect too much seeing as how they didn't practice, but boy it's hard to feel too positively after such a pathetic WR performance on Thursday night.

Hopefully other areas of the team step up including the running game, b/c we will need some time for the receivers to get acclimated.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I think what is hurting the establishment (Kraft era and probably just BB era fans...not remember the seasons before) is the expectation of what we once had and the general certainty of the outcome (and the falling sky syndrome when we lose a game).

This is what 20-25 of the other 31 teams feel on every week. The advantages we have are BB, TB, a defense that has indications of being better and offensive weapons that will join us as the season progresses.

It will be a painful start, but hoping ti starts to come together mid season and be atleast 5-3 in that time.

 

[Deus Irae]

There are certainly positives, and I enjoyed reading your thoughts.

Only time will tell how it plays out, but I am a bit more down than I was coming off of week #1. That said, I guess I can't expect too much seeing as how they didn't practice, but boy it's hard to feel too positively after such a pathetic WR performance on Thursday night.

Hopefully other areas of the team step up including the running game, b/c we will need some time for the receivers to get acclimated.

Look on the bright side. Even if the Patriots drop, say, 3 of the next 4, the Dolphins still have to play

Colts
Falcons
Saints
Ravens

and then use up their bye in a week before facing the lowly Bills in that time. As bad as the division is, and with the schedule the AFCE teams face in the next few weeks, the Patriots could very well have the division lead, even at 3-3.

 

[Gumby]

.......
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A note on the defense: I know there are reasons to discredit what they’ve done so far. Neither the Bills nor the Jets look to be offensive juggernauts, rookie QBs, etc. That said, despite however many brash callers on WEEI exclaim how Bill will have [young QB X]’s head spinning, history suggests the exact opposite. As a game plan team, the Patriots tend to play those unknowns as straight up as possible, particularly when you are talking about a mobile unknown. At that point it is a vanilla city. Few blitzes, minimal stunting, basic coverages, stay in your rush lane to avoid giving up a big scramble. Unknown QBs have been Bill’s non-Shannahan Kryptonite. Yes, they win most of them (same as they do against any QB) but we can all recall plenty of “how’d the hell they allow 250 yards to that guy?!” games. And when those games happen early in the season, one with a rookie head coach? Yowza. The 2011 defense would have left two ROTY campaigns trailing in its wake.
....

I know we won’t know what they really have until going through the NFCS gauntlet that awaits in a few weeks. But I feel confident in already saying that this is the best unit NE has had for a while now. :rocker:

agree 100% with the bold part, said as much to someone at work (who was saying they would/should blitz geno a lot) before the game; but your explanation fleshes out good reason WHY that is. thx.

agree they have the makings of a better D unit then we have seen in a while;

1 area of concern though - VW performance in last game (hopefully flu and not old-age / overwork in previous years)

but also another area for optimism: D is looking good and 2 guys not in mix yet. Collins had limited (almost 0 plays) on D, just ST play. Armstead is out there on reserve list. I think these 2 guys are a lot of 'physical talent' that could potentially give a boost later in season when other injuries /wear-tear on guys occur (if they perform to their talent level)

 

[Oinko]

Amendola and Gronk will make ALL the difference.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Before I begin please allow me to offer a humble apology for the grief I’ve given a few posters who were particularly down on the receivers. That was the worst single game performance I’ve seen out of a Patriot WR corps in my lifetime. Simply dreadful. Maybe the 2006 crew would have looked as terrible the first few weeks had Brown, Faulk and the TEs not been around, but when the debate has gotten that far, it wasn’t a good night.

That said, as the title suggests, I’m about to embark on a quest to demonstrate that this might not be representative of how the 2013 season will play out.

Already down their top 5 receiving targets from last year, NE lost their two best receiving weapons from the Bills game and their only currently viable TE receiving threat. Tack on the fact that NY’s front seven is legit – the main reason why I predicted they would surprise people with an 8 win season – and you have the perfect storm for this offense. No run game, no TEs, limited RB receiving options… the only thing left were the wide receivers. Not only were we talking about green WRs, but green WRs who hardly even practiced for the game! NE’s total preparation for Jets amounted to two walk-throughs. In retrospect, is it really a surprise that NE looked good for a drive and then went down the tubes? Those were probably the only plays they were able to get down. Bill went into a gun fight with a sling-shot, knowing that there was a good chance his opponent's pistol would misfire. Thankfully, it worked.

None of this excuses the drops, of course. And maybe it would be harder to find a positive slant had the Jets drove for a game-winning TD at the end, but I did find it encouraging that Dobson was getting open regularly. For a guy who was last seen struggling to find headroom in a secondary of insurance salesmen and UPS drivers, he handled the jam cleanly and was able to get behind his defender often.

The misfire on 3rd and 14 particularly stood out for me. Aaron got past his CB easily enough (not the impressive part) forcing the safety came over. At that point, Dobson put a subtle move on that had the safety biting up, only to see Aaron blow right past him. It was the first time I’ve seen him make that kind of quick-twitch move instead of the lazy doubles that weren’t fooling anyone in the preseason.

Now, it is possible that making that stutter was what led him to be ever-so-slightly behind the pass instead of running right underneath it. But just knowing he has that in his bag of tricks makes me feel more confident than I was a week ago.

Of course, it wasn’t just Dobson that was struggling. Thompkins had an ugly drop (though it wouldn’t have converted the 3rd even if he got it) and failed to come up with several others as well. The overturned TD is probably the most memorable, and one can hardly fault Kenbrell for his effort there, but it is worth pointing out because it demonstrates another piece that was lacking last night, the timing between Brady and the receivers. Just like the rookies need time to acclimate to genuine NFL speed, it is going to take time for Brady to get used to his new toys in real games as well. Maybe once they are another 30 targets in, Tom takes a little off that throw and Thompkins doesn’t need to make an impossible catch.

I also think it is worth pointing out that Kenbrell looked more comfortable this week than he did in Buffalo. Maybe it was just a case of being at home, but if it was more a matter of adjusting to real bullets, that’s a positive sign, particularly when you consider that the team probably got limited film review of that game in, something that this long weekend affords them plenty of time for. Dobson had a similar first go of it as Thompkins did, so hopefully we’ll see an immediate uptick from him as well.

Some of this will settle once a few bodies return. Edelman isn’t a #1 target, but as a #3-#4 afterthought with Gronk, Amendola and Vereen on the field? He can do some damage. That would also allow the youngsters to slide into complimentary roles that suit their strengths. For now, though, we need to grasp as positives, hoping that they are good omens and accelerating lessons for the rookies.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


A note on the defense: I know there are reasons to discredit what they’ve done so far. Neither the Bills nor the Jets look to be offensive juggernauts, rookie QBs, etc. That said, despite however many brash callers on WEEI exclaim how Bill will have [young QB X]’s head spinning, history suggests the exact opposite. As a game plan team, the Patriots tend to play those unknowns as straight up as possible, particularly when you are talking about a mobile unknown. At that point it is a vanilla city. Few blitzes, minimal stunting, basic coverages, stay in your rush lane to avoid giving up a big scramble. Unknown QBs have been Bill’s non-Shannahan Kryptonite. Yes, they win most of them (same as they do against any QB) but we can all recall plenty of “how’d the hell they allow 250 yards to that guy?!” games. And when those games happen early in the season, one with a rookie head coach? Yowza. The 2011 defense would have left two ROTY campaigns trailing in its wake.

You also can’t overlook the fact that the Jets had sixteen – sixteen! – possessions Thursday night. And that they were often back on the field before moseying over for a Gatorade break. NE’s offense only had one drive the entire game last longer than three minutes; the 6 play, 14 yard conquest that rolled 3:15 off the clock before NY’s final drive. Seriously, read that again. Does anyone think that the Patriots win that game the past three years even against Geno Smith? I don’t.

I know we won’t know what they really have until going through the NFCS gauntlet that awaits in a few weeks. But I feel confident in already saying that this is the best unit NE has had for a while now. :rocker:

Too bad you didn't make yourself think it out and then listen to yourself BEFORE the game.

BTW...........separation is the one thing that can't be corrected.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thanks for the post -- very well thought out.

And to add to it:

Mayock (who seems to me to have a good game eye) was emphasizing how many of the drops were a matter of lack of timing/bad anticipation by the receivers and that looked right.

Belichick really was pleased with the performance, not just because it was the Jets or because he never takes a win for granted. He commented explicitly on how well and hard the team had worked leading up to the game.

 

[supafly]

Look on the bright side. Even if the Patriots drop, say, 3 of the next 4, the Dolphins still have to play

Colts
Falcons
Saints
Ravens

and then use up their bye in a week before facing the lowly Bills in that time. As bad as the division is, and with the schedule the AFCE teams face in the next few weeks, the Patriots could very well have the division lead, even at 3-3.

Sure, I agree with your point 100%. I see no scenario where we don't make the playoffs outside of serious injury to key players, and even then they'd likely still be very competitive.

By the time the stretch run occurs post-Thanksgiving, things may be in a much better situation, but in the meantime we're probably going to have to temper our expectations for the year in terms of byes and the like.

All of those who expected the "usual" 13-3 or 12-4 season may have to rethink those projections a bit, although as we've seen first round byes and regular season domination aren't always what they're cracked up to be. At the same time I can't help but feeling that the team has taken a step or two backwards, at least based off of these first two games.

Most felt that a downgrade of 5-6-7 points on offense was to be expected, but we're currently a long way off from even that. Hopefully they're able to get some chemistry together going, along with Gronk and Amendola returning.

 

[supafly]

Belichick really was pleased with the performance, not just because it was the Jets or because he never takes a win for granted. He commented explicitly on how well and hard the team had worked leading up to the game.

Yeah Bill seemed to be fairly animated compared to his usual self. Maybe it's the fact that it was the Jets, or that they're 2-0 with both wins in the division already, but either way I was kind of surprised to see that.

My guess is that they used the time from the preseason game 4 up to Thursday night to prepare a little for both the Bills and Jets, and that he's just happy to be done with those and move ahead. With 10 days to prepare for the Bucs, things may end up looking much better next Sunday afternoon.

I still think we'll run into a hornet's nest with ATL and NO. Hopefully we'll be in a good enough position to beat CIN, but that won't be easy either, especially since it's away.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Yeah Bill seemed to be fairly animated compared to his usual self. Maybe it's the fact that it was the Jets, or that they're 2-0 with both wins in the division already, but either way I was kind of surprised to see that.

Well, that's part of it, I'm sure. BB NEVER takes any win for granted. But sometimes the downside kicks in pretty quickly ("Well, we made some plays, they made some plays and fortunately we made enough to win..." and then he's off talking about the need to focus on preparing for the next game.)

My reading is this.

Ask anyone who's coached (or taught) and it's much more satisfying to have a less talented player/student who is working hard and making improvements than a talented one who won't make the effort or do what they're told. We know enough about BB to know the premium he places on "coachability". I think he's telling us that he thinks these players are coachable and he's praising them in public for it.

 

[Joker]

I don't give a shyt who we "run into" or how many beatings this team takes early on.

Here's the thing, every season the media beats the airwaves with their "It's BAD!!!!!!" takes, the chicken littles get their pea sized ticksticles in a twist and the avalanche of doom and gloom pours forth like a fecal flood of moronic mewling.

Show me the "BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" season since 2001.

The one where Brady went down in the FIRST GAME of the season and a 7th round NOBODY NEVER WAS managed an 11-5 record?

I just wish you constant whiners and complainers would find another venue to pour your misery down on. If/when the Pats actually DO have a down season, I sincerely hope it devastates your lives so much you WALK AWAY and take your pathetic rain clouds with you for good.

Patriot Fan-In For A Penny...In For A Pound...UP OR DOWN!

 

[Tunescribe]

... the chicken littles get their pea sized ticksticles in a twist and the avalanche of doom and gloom pours forth like a fecal flood of moronic mewling.

:youtheman:

 

[JMarr]

Hopefully other areas of the team step up including the running game, b/c we will need some time for the receivers to get acclimated.

I hope Ridley bounces back from a terrible game but honestly I don't see the running getting much better until 1) Ridley figures out how to run effectively without having to clutch the ball for dear life on every play, 2) teams don't get to stack the box and can't single cover all our receivers except Jules, and 3) Gronk then Vareen return.

Hindsight 20/20 but losing Woodhead obviously hurts a lot right now. The guy's so versatile, he could have played the slot in a pinch. Now we just have a bunch of lumbering backup RBs who aren't much use in our offense.

 

[supafly]

I hope Ridley bounces back from a terrible game but honestly I don't see the running getting much better until 1) Ridley figures out how to run effectively without having to clutch the ball for dear life on every play, 2) teams don't get to stack the box and can't single cover all our receivers except Jules, and 3) Gronk then Vareen return.

Hindsight 20/20 but losing Woodhead obviously hurts a lot right now. The guy's so versatile, he could have played the slot in a pinch. Now we just have a bunch of lumbering backup RBs who aren't much use in our offense.

I wasn't as concerned about losing Woodhead as maybe you were, seeing as how Vereen seemed to be more than capable of taking over that role. Actually we saw that in the first game vs BUF when he was the one and only NFL running back who had over 100 yds rushing, and added other important yds via catching passes and lining up as a pure wide receiver.

Unfortunately he became injured, and that just cannot be predicted. If Woodhead had been playing that role, it could've happened to him just the same.

One thing to remember is that every year we will have an important group of core players who we'd want to keep as free agents, but it's just impossible to do so with all of them. We were able to keep Talib, Vollmer, Arrington, Edelman, and add Amendola, Kelly, A.Wilson, and Washington. Of course there were other smaller players like Cole, etc retained too. That's quite a haul for keeping both our own + adding some key players.

 

[JMarr]

I don't give a shyt who we "run into" or how many beatings this team takes early on.

Here's the thing, every season the media beats the airwaves with their "It's BAD!!!!!!" takes, the chicken littles get their pea sized ticksticles in a twist and the avalanche of doom and gloom pours forth like a fecal flood of moronic mewling.

Show me the "BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" season since 2001.

The one where Brady went down in the FIRST GAME of the season and a 7th round NOBODY NEVER WAS managed an 11-5 record?

I just wish you constant whiners and complainers would find another venue to pour your misery down on. If/when the Pats actually DO have a down season, I sincerely hope it devastates your lives so much you WALK AWAY and take your pathetic rain clouds with you for good.

Patriot Fan-In For A Penny...In For A Pound...UP OR DOWN!

C'mon Joker, you're going to give yourself a heart attack. Most of the fans whom you call "whiners and complainers" are discussing the state of the team and are concerned right now, nothing more. (And you woudn't have much to post about if we weren't around).

True, it happens every season, but I don't take for granted that the Pats will make the playoffs every year due to some sort of divine birthright, or to BB/TB being here. Every year's different, and the way this team is still constructed around our QB, the lack of reliable WR TE and RB options presents a bigger challenge than in the past.

 

[JMarr]

I wasn't as concerned about losing Woodhead as maybe you were, seeing as how Vereen seemed to be more than capable of taking over that role. Actually we saw that in the first game vs BUF when he was the one and only NFL running back who had over 100 yds rushing, and added other important yds via catching passes and lining up as a pure wide receiver.

Unfortunately he became injured, and that just cannot be predicted. If Woodhead had been playing that role, it could've happened to him just the same.

One thing to remember is that every year we will have an important group of core players who we'd want to keep as free agents, but it's just impossible to do so with all of them. We were able to keep Talib, Vollmer, Arrington, Edelman, and add Amendola, Kelly, A.Wilson, and Washington. Of course there were other smaller players like Cole, etc retained too. That's quite a haul for keeping both our own + adding some key players.

You're right and wrong about Vareen. Why would you pay1.5 million to a guy that Vareen is going to replace? Then again, Woodhead was a such a clutch guy for us and a durable know quantity--getting rid of both Welker AND Woodhead was risky. 10 million under the cap, cough cough. And injuries happen, always. Vareen was nicked up his first year wasn't he?

 

[supafly]

You're right and wrong about Vareen. Why would you pay1.5 million to a guy that Vareen is going to replace? Then again, Woodhead was a such a clutch guy for us and a durable know quantity--getting rid of both Welker AND Woodhead was risky. 10 million under the cap, cough cough. And injuries happen, always. Vareen was nicked up his first year wasn't he?

I hear your concerns with not spending enough money, but you also have to take into account the fact that the cap isn't moving up too much, and that we have many important core players coming up in the next 18 months.

The object is going to be trying to carry cap money over into the next year while continuing to retain as many of our core players as much as possible.

It's funny that in one thread I run into a poster like yourself who isn't happy with the amount of money that they spent this year, and in the other thread I am hearing from ATippett56 about the horrible state of affairs as it pertains to our salary cap situation. The truth likely lies in the middle in terms of Belichick always being as frugal as possible while attempting to build a team that is competitive both currently--while also in the future. It isn't easy trying to pull that off, and amazingly his success rate is brilliant as a whole.

If anything, I think that being able to try and deal with all of Talib, Welker, Vollmer, Arrington, Woodhead, D.Thomas, Branch, Cole, etc...in the same year while bringing in Amendola, L.Washington, Kelly, A.Wilson, Svitek, etc was probably pretty challenging. On top of that they had the Hernandez and Fanane situations that are currently costing them money.

I agree with that it may have been risky letting go of both Welker and Woodhead, but trying to juggle all of these decisions and players is rough. It's probably a case of replacing a player where you potentially can, and they must've felt that Vereen had enough potential to replace Woodhead. That's obviously not the case with every free agent as some of these players simply aren't in position to replace their predecessors. The salary cap is a sticky situation for sure. Sometimes the decisions work out, sometimes they don't. As a whole though, we seem to do pretty well, so that is likely where my optimism is stemming from

 

[Mike the Brit]

C'mon Joker, you're going to give yourself a heart attack. Most of the fans whom you call "whiners and complainers" are discussing the state of the team and are concerned right now, nothing more. (And you woudn't have much to post about if we weren't around).

Forget it ... he's rolling.

Joker's right -- psychotic, but he's right ...