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Following DaBruinz' lead, I've attempted to tackle the question of "what holes do the Patriots most need to fill?" What's the state of the roster?
To clarify: this is NOT the same as assessing draft and FA "priorities", which are shaped strongly by market forces. (E.g. the Pats have a gaping hole at fullback, but fullback won't be a high "priority" because the position is severely devalued in the marketplace.)
My goal was to come up with a transparent way of weighting position importance, current need and projected need. I whipped up a 20-point scale, comprised of 3 scores. It may look arcane but it's actually pretty simple and quick to tally:
2009GapPoints (0-9)
How far is the current Patriots roster from filling this position at a high level? E.g. Kicker scores a 0 because a Pro-Bowler is under contract; FB scores a 9 because the position is empty.
2010GapPoints (0-4)
Same as above but looking ahead to 2010.
PositionQualityValuePoints (0-7)
How much does the quality of the player at this position affect the team's chances of winning? (Note that you must assign the full 0-7 range; a 0 doesn't mean the position is worthless, just that it doesn't earn any position value points.)
I took a stab at scoring 38 individual positions, including starters, specialists, and primary subs. Here's the needs ranking I ended up with:
1. Strong Safety
2. Backup Nose Tackle
3. Punter
4. Fullback
5. Tight End A
6. Long Snapper
7. Swing Tackle
8. Rush OLB
9. 3rd ILB
Notes:
* Some of those positions had a second similar position that also scored in double digits: OT, TE, NT, and S. So those four position areas look to me like the primary, concentrated need areas.
* OG and DE are notable for having multiple gaps to plan for in 2010.
* CB & RB are notable for having multiple filled but "upgradable" slots for 2009.
Or not.
To clarify: this is NOT the same as assessing draft and FA "priorities", which are shaped strongly by market forces. (E.g. the Pats have a gaping hole at fullback, but fullback won't be a high "priority" because the position is severely devalued in the marketplace.)
My goal was to come up with a transparent way of weighting position importance, current need and projected need. I whipped up a 20-point scale, comprised of 3 scores. It may look arcane but it's actually pretty simple and quick to tally:
2009GapPoints (0-9)
How far is the current Patriots roster from filling this position at a high level? E.g. Kicker scores a 0 because a Pro-Bowler is under contract; FB scores a 9 because the position is empty.
2010GapPoints (0-4)
Same as above but looking ahead to 2010.
PositionQualityValuePoints (0-7)
How much does the quality of the player at this position affect the team's chances of winning? (Note that you must assign the full 0-7 range; a 0 doesn't mean the position is worthless, just that it doesn't earn any position value points.)
I took a stab at scoring 38 individual positions, including starters, specialists, and primary subs. Here's the needs ranking I ended up with:
1. Strong Safety
2. Backup Nose Tackle
3. Punter
4. Fullback
5. Tight End A
6. Long Snapper
7. Swing Tackle
8. Rush OLB
9. 3rd ILB
Notes:
* Some of those positions had a second similar position that also scored in double digits: OT, TE, NT, and S. So those four position areas look to me like the primary, concentrated need areas.
* OG and DE are notable for having multiple gaps to plan for in 2010.
* CB & RB are notable for having multiple filled but "upgradable" slots for 2009.
Or not.
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