5 quarterbacks...last year, one was dramatically more successful...

[Box_O_Rocks]

Scout.com: 7 Points: Big Decision

Point No. 3: Although five quarterbacks attempted at least 550 passes to their wide receivers last year, one was dramatically more successful in completing his throws.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Damn, that is a hell of a statistic.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Scout.com: 7 Points: Big Decision

that was a great football read ... no fluff and full of substance.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

One obvious question is why didn't the Pats throw more to their TEs and RBs? Faulk is a good receiver. For some reason, Maroney wasn't used much in that regard. That's the puzzle. I can see not throwing a lot to the other RBs.

As to TEs other than opening eve vs Buffalo where Watson won the game with two big, deep catches, the TEs went MIA for the rest of the season. We've all read how Baker 'retired' after training camp but was Watson that inconsistent or was it an OC decision? Dunno.

 

[ALP]

owww, did not know that...

and i wonder how much of that 71% he threw at his wide outs was only to welker and moss


brady is still the best there is, hopefully hell have a couple of more wr targets this upcoming year to increase that number even more

and obviously not throwing to your runningbacks and TE's isnt that BAD of an idea, although i think if we could have implemented them into the offense last year, we would be much closer to 07 form than what we saw

 

[Fencer]

One obvious question is why didn't the Pats throw more to their TEs and RBs? Faulk is a good receiver. For some reason, Maroney wasn't used much in that regard. That's the puzzle. I can see not throwing a lot to the other RBs.

Were they kept in to block more than on other teams?

Or maybe there were also fewer of them?

E.g., if you have 3 WRs, 1 other skill position player blocking, and 1 other going out for a pass, then 75% would be at least what the WRs should expect.

 

[alamo]

owww, did not know that...

and i wonder how much of that 71% he threw at his wide outs was only to welker and moss

Should be easy to figure out... I looked it up. 83 completions to Moss, 123 to Welker for 203.

Only 50% WR completions to Moss+Welker?!?

Which made me look closer... the story says

Out of his 565 attempts, he connected with his receivers 403 times for a league-high 70.1 percent completion rate to his wide receivers.

But NFL.com says Brady on the season was 371 of 565 overall!

So obviously the stats in the scout.com article are WRONG. They use Brady's total attempts instead of the correct WR-only number which is obviously lower. Their original point may or may not be valid but they screwed up the numbers so much it's impossible to tell.

 

[ALP]

Should be easy to figure out... I looked it up. 83 completions to Moss, 123 to Welker for 203.

Only 50% WR completions to Moss+Welker?!?

Which made me look closer... the story says


But NFL.com says Brady on the season was 371 of 565 overall!

So obviously the stats in the scout.com article are WRONG. They use Brady's total attempts instead of the correct WR-only number which is obviously lower. Their original point may or may not be valid but they screwed up the numbers so much it's impossible to tell.

hahaha

great, they write this story, make brady look so good, and now their numbers are wrong....just great

now when u compare brady to the other elite QB's, its not a favorable comparison to him, LOL

this all is assuming NFL. com has the correct metrics of course

 

[Gwedd]

Should be easy to figure out... I looked it up. 83 completions to Moss, 123 to Welker for 203.

Only 50% WR completions to Moss+Welker?!?

Which made me look closer... the story says


But NFL.com says Brady on the season was 371 of 565 overall!

So obviously the stats in the scout.com article are WRONG. They use Brady's total attempts instead of the correct WR-only number which is obviously lower. Their original point may or may not be valid but they screwed up the numbers so much it's impossible to tell.

FWIW: Your total is also wrong. 83+123 is 206, not 203.

Just sayin'

 

[Sicilian]

It seemed pretty suspect overall anyway. I mean, he completed over 70% of his passes to WR's, but only completed in the mid 60's overall? That means his passes to RB's and TE's (which should be short, high percentage routes) were probably under 60%? Didn't really add up.

 

[TheComeback]

Great example of how one can skew statistics to make a false claim. Of course Brady has completes 70% of his passes "to wide receivers" and Peyton has 54%... Peyton has a guy named Dallas Clark who isn't a "wide receiver," and the Pats never throw to anyone but wideouts. Doesn't prove anything except that other teams use backs and tight ends in the passing game more often than the Patriots do.

 

[BritPat]

We do have more receivers other than Moss and Welker.....

 

[alamo]

FWIW: Your total is also wrong. 83+123 is 206, not 203.

Just sayin'

Yep. I had the story in front of me which said "he connected with his receivers 403 times" and I miswrote 06 as 03 when I typed it.

Great example of how one can skew statistics to make a false claim. Of course Brady has completes 70% of his passes "to wide receivers" and Peyton has 54%... Peyton has a guy named Dallas Clark who isn't a "wide receiver," and the Pats never throw to anyone but wideouts. Doesn't prove anything except that other teams use backs and tight ends in the passing game more often than the Patriots do.

"Doesn't prove anything"? That was exactly the author's point. It's an unimportant point, more trivia than anything, but the author explictly said "The other four quarterbacks spread their passes around to their tight ends and running backs more frequently, throwing only 54 to 58 percent of their tosses to their wide receivers. "

We do have more receivers other than Moss and Welker.....

Yes, but the idea that Moss+Welker accounted for only 51% of Brady's WR completions is clearly way off.

 

[bucky]

Should be easy to figure out... I looked it up. 83 completions to Moss, 123 to Welker for 203.

Only 50% WR completions to Moss+Welker?!?

Which made me look closer... the story says


But NFL.com says Brady on the season was 371 of 565 overall!

So obviously the stats in the scout.com article are WRONG. They use Brady's total attempts instead of the correct WR-only number which is obviously lower. Their original point may or may not be valid but they screwed up the numbers so much it's impossible to tell.

Indeed, it's curious where these stats are coming from. Based on some of the stats I pulled from ESPN, Brady + Hoyer combined were 272-423 to the WRs - which is 64.5%.

If you consider that Welker was 123-162 for 75.9%, everything starts to make sense.

Everything except where this guy gets his stats from, that is!

 

[bucky]

"Doesn't prove anything"? That was exactly the author's point. It's an unimportant point, more trivia than anything, but the author explictly said "The other four quarterbacks spread their passes around to their tight ends and running backs more frequently, throwing only 54 to 58 percent of their tosses to their wide receivers. "

Actually, I have some stats on that as well:

COMPLETION%, TARGET %:
2009:
WR: 70%, 72%
TE: 11%, 10%
RB: 19%, 18%

2008 (obviously, this is not Brady):
WR: 67%, 67%
TE: 9%, 12%
RB: 24%, 21%

2007:
WR: 73%, 74%
TE: 12%, 12%
RB: 15%, 14%

 

[bucky]

Yes, but the idea that Moss+Welker accounted for only 51% of Brady's WR completions is clearly way off.

One more stat for you. In this case, you're not quite right:

Moss+Welker = 206 receptions, 300 attempts = 68.67 completion %.

Moss+Welker = 51% of all targets and 52.8% of all completions.

Of course this doesn't account for the fact that Welker missed essentially 3 games, which would scew those numbers.

If you were to do it on a per-game basis (13 games for Welker and 16 for Moss), the numbers would be 57.37% of targets and 60.1% of completions.

 

[alamo]

Yes, but the idea that Moss+Welker accounted for only 51% of Brady's WR completions is clearly way off.

One more stat for you. In this case, you're not quite right:

I did say "WR completions", from your own numbers Moss+Welker were 206/272 for 76%.

Thanks for the completion breakdown by WR/TE/RB. Where is it available? I remember seeing it but not where.

 

[bucky]

I did say "WR completions", from your own numbers Moss+Welker were 206/272 for 76%.

Thanks for the completion breakdown by WR/TE/RB. Where is it available? I remember seeing it but not where.

In that case you are absolutely right. Again, the numbers in that article seem way off, but the % targets to WRs seems to be correct.

All my numbers are pulled from ESPN. If you go to receiving stats there, they have target stats going back to 2006. It's a bit of a project to compile them though. I did not break it out by QB though, but considering Hoyer was 19-27 last year, it's not worth it.

By the way, in 2006 - the year before Moss and Welker got here, the numbers were VERY different:

WR: 48% comp, 51% targets
TE: 25% comp, 27% targets
RB: 27% comp, 22% targets

 

[lamafist]

Great example of how one can skew statistics to make a false claim. Of course Brady has completes 70% of his passes "to wide receivers" and Peyton has 54%... Peyton has a guy named Dallas Clark who isn't a "wide receiver," and the Pats never throw to anyone but wideouts. Doesn't prove anything except that other teams use backs and tight ends in the passing game more often than the Patriots do.

There's a good point to be made here by bringing up Dallas Clark, though in my opinion, it's not the interpretation you chose to go with.

The stats being used are based on the player's jersey numbers, not where they lined up and how they were used. To them, both Edelman and Welker are "wide receivers," while Clark is a Tight End -- even though the type of routes they run and the role they play in the offense are more similar to each other than Welker's role compared to Pierre Garcon or Watson's to Clark.

So really, the only thing you can take from these numbers is that position classifcations and the way we measure their stats hasn't caught up to the reality of the way the game is played today.

A more useful data set wouldn't be determined by the players' official positions, but by where they were lined up at the snap and where they were when they were thrown the ball.

 

[ALP]

In that case you are absolutely right. Again, the numbers in that article seem way off, but the % targets to WRs seems to be correct.

All my numbers are pulled from ESPN. If you go to receiving stats there, they have target stats going back to 2006. It's a bit of a project to compile them though. I did not break it out by QB though, but considering Hoyer was 19-27 last year, it's not worth it.

By the way, in 2006 - the year before Moss and Welker got here, the numbers were VERY different:

WR: 48% comp, 51% targets
TE: 25% comp, 27% targets
RB: 27% comp, 22% targets

lol, looking at the 07-09 stats, i can see why we dont trhow to rb's and TE's...the comp % is beyond horrible, whereares for the wr's its in the low 70's