* 2012 Draft Wide Receivers *

[Snake Eyes]

I still feel we could use someone over the top guy with some blazing speed. Speed is quite important since it gets you alot for free. There are certainly other things important but speed is always nice. We can of course bring in 3-4 4.5 guys and put em with Branch et al.

I think 40 times are VASTLY over-rated and initial burst, or "Launch" in Gridian terms, is very under-rated. If they have a superior launch they'll be able to get open and move the chains.

Regarding deep speed, it's certainly nice but it's icing on the cake rather than cake itself. Also, few people consider the importance of burst within speed, I've never seen anyone exemplify this better than Moss in his prime, he could run at a very good clip but he wouldnt be going at full speed, when a DB thought he had him you'd suddenly see a burst from Moss even beyond that very high speed he was running at. There was just no answer for this.

At the combine there were several experts talking about "controlling one's speed", this is what they meant, how 'a WR could run a 4.35 40 but he didnt play at his 40 and how some guys played beyond their 40'. The ability to quickly accelerate and decelerate is of paramount importance, even though Jerry Rice had a pretty bad 40 time (4.7-4.8) there was no receiver who was quicker in and out of his breaks than him.

So, if a receiver has that incredible burst with fantastic speed you have the raw material for an incredible player.

 

[Daigle]

I think 40 times are VASTLY over-rated and initial burst, or "Launch" in Gridian terms, is very under-rated. If they have a superior launch they'll be able to get open and move the chains.

Regarding deep speed, it's certainly nice but it's icing on the cake rather than cake itself. Also, few people consider the importance of burst within speed, I've never seen anyone exemplify this better than Moss in his prime, he could run at a very good clip but he wouldnt be going at full speed, when a DB thought he had him you'd suddenly see a burst from Moss even beyond that very high speed he was running at. There was just no answer for this.

At the combine there were several experts talking about "controlling one's speed", this is what they meant, how 'a WR could run a 4.35 40 but he didnt play at his 40 and how some guys played beyond their 40'. The ability to quickly accelerate and decelerate is of paramount importance, even though Jerry Rice had a pretty bad 40 time (4.7-4.8) there was no receiver who was quicker in and out of his breaks than him.

So, if a receiver has that incredible burst with fantastic speed you have the raw material for an incredible player.

I agree, there are of course different kinds of speeds. Top speed, acceleration and launch.

I get the feeling sometimes that Branch isnt really getting open this season. Also we cant stretch the field to open up for gronk or henny. Usually teams clog the short to medium routes and things get messy.

 

[Off The Grid]

Great work as always OTG. But, i have to respectfully disagree with you on Alshon Jeffery. I think the guy is a beast and has really been hurt by the South Carolina offense this year. I will admit he hasn't lived up to the expectations of last years monster numbers but I don't think it is all his fault. The passing game at South Carolina this year has been extremely inconsistent and they simply haven't targeted him enough. While he may not have elite explosion or athletecism, he doesn't need it. With his size and body control he has a natural ability to gain seperation and he has some of, if not the best hands in college football. You put it near him and he will find a way to catch it. I think he would be an amazing weapon for Brady, where he doesn't need to throw a perfect pass because Jeffery's catch radius is so big.

I think he is going to slide leading up to the draft because of the disapointing production this year and I expect him to run slow, but if he is available at any of the Pats picks I wouldn't hesitate to take him. I think he is only scratching the surface of his potential, and while the Calvin Johnson comparisons are rediculous, I think he will be a legit #1 WR in the NFL. I think NEPatriotsDraft said it best in one of their write ups about Jeffery, saying "Jeffrey is an NFL receiver on a college offense."

On the other WR's, I love Criner and have had him in my last few mocks. I started with him in the 4th round but quickly had to move him into the 3rd with his strong performances this year and rising stock. I think on draft day he could move himself all the way into the mid 2nd round. What I like about him is he is a possession reciever that has big play ability. Sure everyone want's that deep threat and big play guy, but I also want that guy to be able to contribute regularly, and I think that guy could be Criner.

The other "Stud Horse Sleeper" I'm really intruiged by is Greg Childs. I loved his tape last year and he really showed a natural ability to gain seperation. This year I think its been obvious that he has been affected by last years injury and I haven't been able to see much of his play, simply because he hasn't produced very much this year. I think the talent is still there though and he has the size you look for in a WR. With his lack of production and injury history I agree he is likely a late round, possible UDFA, but definitly worth the risk.

The other guy I was really interested in coming into the season was Jeff Fuller, who has been a complete disapointment. Like I said in another thread, I would still take a chance on him, but not before the 4th round. He's got great size and athletecism, but the big red flag for me this year has been effort. The games I've watched this year I was really disapointed with his effort, whether its giving up after running his initial route or giving up if the ball isn't thrown to him well. There were a few times this year where he has the chance to break up an interception on an underthrown pass to him but he made no attempt. He didn't adjust, didn't attack the ball and just watched the DB catch it and take it the other way. That along with his dispointing production really have me concerned. But based on last years tape I would consider him in the later rounds.

Once again great work OTG and I can't wait for the next installment.

Ahhh...

Yet another rich, deep, textured contribution from Brother Wilfork.

***

1 ~ You've given me much to think about, regarding Alshon Jeffery, my friend!! Wide Receiver is the position about which I am least confident about my analytical aptitude, so believe me when I say I take your rebuttal very seriously.

2 ~ I like your description of Criner as a Chain Mover, first, and a Big Play guy, second. That is a very good description of what I, too, am looking for in a Wide Out.

3 ~ Heh!! It's pretty cool that the 3 guys you commented on ~ after Jeffrey ~ were Criner, Childs, and Fuller, who are my greatest interests at this early ~ 5 months to go!! ~ juncture.

Thanks for your kinds words, Brother Wilfork. Terrific post!! :rocker:

 

[Off The Grid]

Alabama completely shut down Randle. He also had poor games against Oreon and Ole Miss (single reception or under 20 yards). While he has some talent, I don't really like him for our offense.

I haven't yet found a WR I really like (at least in terms of value). If draft position were no concern, then I'd go with Floyd (given that his attitude/work ethic improves). Love his skillset. Hilton I do like a lot, and Jarius Wright as well. Patrick Edwards reminds me a bit of Branch.

Dwight Jones reportedly has some attitude issues, or else I'd be more interested in him as a larger receiver who still has some good quickness.

I do think we need to add outside receiver talent. I just haven't figured out who is the best candidate for that role.

Good stuff, Brother Reamer.

I have had a very similar perspective on this year's crop of Wide Outs ~ VERY difficult to find a player I like at the Market Value I like ~ and only Criner and Childs, at this point, meet that Confluence...and then, only the 6th or 7th Round, with the question marks you'd expect, there...

I do like Hilton a great deal, but am not currently inclined to pull the trigger, for the obvious reasons, they being Welker and Edelman.

Which one of these will/have good 40s time ?

Whoops!!

Sorry to disappoint you, my esteemed Brother Daigle, but you could NOT find a soul who knows LESS nor CARES less about "40" times than I!!

...Or, to put it another way: NEITHER!! :rocker:

Now, if you want to talk about Ten Yard Splits...

I still feel we could use someone over the top guy with some blazing speed. Speed is quite important since it gets you alot for free. There are certainly other things important but speed is always nice. We can of course bring in 3-4 4.5 guys and put em with Branch et al.

I think 40 times are VASTLY over-rated and initial burst, or "Launch" in Gridian terms, is very under-rated. If they have a superior launch they'll be able to get open and move the chains.

Regarding deep speed, it's certainly nice but it's icing on the cake rather than cake itself. Also, few people consider the importance of burst within speed, I've never seen anyone exemplify this better than Moss in his prime, he could run at a very good clip but he wouldnt be going at full speed, when a DB thought he had him you'd suddenly see a burst from Moss even beyond that very high speed he was running at. There was just no answer for this.

At the combine there were several experts talking about "controlling one's speed", this is what they meant, how 'a WR could run a 4.35 40 but he didnt play at his 40 and how some guys played beyond their 40'. The ability to quickly accelerate and decelerate is of paramount importance, even though Jerry Rice had a pretty bad 40 time (4.7-4.8) there was no receiver who was quicker in and out of his breaks than him.

So, if a receiver has that incredible burst with fantastic speed you have the raw material for an incredible player.

Great stuff, man.

While measuring that stuff is daunting, to say the least ~ as are most of the important Attributes, in my opinion, and they can all be gauged, at least, albeit with difficulty ~ the ability to change speeds quickly can be deadly, indeed, and it's a very refreshing point to bring up.

I agree, there are of course different kinds of speeds. Top speed, acceleration and launch.

I get the feeling sometimes that Branch isnt really getting open this season. Also we cant stretch the field to open up for gronk or henny. Usually teams clog the short to medium routes and things get messy.

Excellent points, all, Brother Daigle.

Many ~ indeed: the vast majority ~ would agree with you on Long Speed.

MIND you: I'm not ALLERGIC to a 4.3 "40"!! :rocker:

I just have a different philosophical way of looking at the Wide Receiver position.

My Strategic Vision

And I think your concerns about the middle of the field getting clogged are 100% valid. The approach I would wish to take ~ a very radical one ~ is to bring in yet MORE Wing Backs who bring dual threats to the field, and to pursue bigger beasts like Criner and Childs at Split End.

The Objective would be, first, to be able to field Sets that bring so many dual threats to the table ~ 3 + 4 Tight Ends Sets!! ~ that the Defense is living a nightmare every single snap...And to complement these with Split Ends who can knock away the Corners opposite them and get free immediately. My thinking is: It doesn't matter if they clog the middle of the field if they can neither contain our guys nor predict with any clue where the ball's going, OR even if it's a Pass or Run, because EVERYBODY ~ including the big, beefy Possession Receiver Split Ends ~ is equal deadly in the Run OR the Pass Game.

 

[ay-yo]

Going into the 2012 offseason Welker and Branch are FA's. Edelman has proven worthy of a roster spot but hasn't produced much at WR. Price has barely gotten onto the field in almost 2 years. Even if we resign Branch and Welker (I sure hope we resign both considering our luck finding WR's through any method) a 1st round pick could be justified at this position assuming the WR is BPA.

If a WR or defensive player have the same grade I'd hope we go with the defensive player however.

 

[Frick]

We stay away from Offense, until the Defense is sic
Then we use a 3rd rounder to get Brian Quick (6'4"-220 WR Apalacian St.)

 

[manxman2601]

We stay away from Offense, until the Defense is sic
Then we use a 3rd rounder to get Brian Quick (6'4"-220 WR Apalacian St.)

That assumes there's the defensive prospects there to make our defense "sic". i'm not sure that they're there. The two that look to be the best match in the first are Upshaw and Still but both might be gone by the time we pick, the other defensive standouts in the first round are ILB's and CB's. Then in the second there's another bunch of ok CB's, DE to OLB conversion projects and imperfect DT to DE conversion projects and marginal FS's.

I'm not seeing a "sic" defense in this draft I'm afraid. Would love for someone to convince me otherwise.

As for WR's, my current potential wishlist is (any of):

Mohamed Sanu
Kendall Wright (my top choice for a first round option)
Marvin McNutt
Greg Childs (if he's there in the fourth or later)
Jarius Wright

Still to be convinced on other options.

 

[Snake Eyes]

That assumes there's the defensive prospects there to make our defense "sic". i'm not sure that they're there. The two that look to be the best match in the first are Upshaw and Still but both might be gone by the time we pick, the other defensive standouts in the first round are ILB's and CB's. Then in the second there's another bunch of ok CB's, DE to OLB conversion projects and imperfect DT to DE conversion projects and marginal FS's.

I'm not seeing a "sic" defense in this draft I'm afraid. Would love for someone to convince me otherwise.

As for WR's, my current potential wishlist is (any of):

Mohamed Sanu
Kendall Wright (my top choice for a first round option)
Marvin McNutt
Greg Childs (if he's there in the fourth or later)
Jarius Wright

Still to be convinced on other options.

Agreed, regarding the draft. A smart GM takes what the market gives him, if the defensive talent simply isn’t there to give us enough of an impact to justify the opportunity cost then we should pursue other options, one of them being an upgrade to the offense. Currently my ideal situation is McNutt/Broyles in the 2-4th rounds with perhaps DeCastro early on. If Couples fell I think my arm could be twisted to draft him, but God, I hate his arms.

 

[manxman2601]

The other "Stud Horse Sleeper" I'm really intruiged by is Greg Childs. I loved his tape last year and he really showed a natural ability to gain seperation. This year I think its been obvious that he has been affected by last years injury and I haven't been able to see much of his play, simply because he hasn't produced very much this year. I think the talent is still there though and he has the size you look for in a WR. With his lack of production and injury history I agree he is likely a late round, possible UDFA, but definitly worth the risk.

Childs seems to be the best option to pick up a potential no1 receiver for us. I love his Rob Rang write up:

Release: Too big and strong for most defenders at this level to test him in press coverage. Good lateral agility to avoid press and make them pay due to good acceleration and better straight-line speed than he's often credited with possessing. Eats up the cushion, showing better agility and precision as a route-runner than most receivers of his size.

Hands: Soft, reliable hands. Shows the ability to extend and pluck outside of his frame. Can track the ball over his shoulder, though he likes to turn back to the ball when he can. Excellent concentration and good body control. Good arm length and hand strength to snatch passes high and wide, as well as slightly behind him. Capable of making tough grabs with defenders clinging to him. Good toughness to take a hit and hang on. Appears to possess a strong vertical to go along with his excellent size, though he doesn't often enough use each to his advantage. Has to do a better job of timing his leap and snatching the ball at its highest point against NFL-caliber cornerbacks.

Route running: While Childs lacks elite straight-line speed, he keeps defenders off-balance with savvy route-running. Changes gears and uses head/shoulder fakes to draw defenders. Has a quick burst to sneak downfield, especially if he feels them attempting to jump a short route. Can plant his foot in the ground and show some explosiveness out of his break to create separation. Uses his size and burst to easily gain freedom on slants, crossers and the variety of quick screens in this offense. Not often asked to run deep outs in this offense, but appears to have the balance and quick feet to successfully do so.

After the catch: Attacks the football. Doesn't wait for it to come to him, but rather goes to it, helping him build momentum to generate yardage after the catch. Is a load to bring down. Possesses good size and strength to run through arm tackles. Physical receiver who challenges defensive backs by lowering his shoulder and churning his feet. Some lateral agility to elude, though he's most effective due to his strength and surprising (for his size) acceleration. Long-strider with deceptive speed to sneak downfield for the deep ball. Good vision. Looks for teammates to help him and allows his blocks to set up rather than running past them prematurely. Good body control to tap his feet before going out of bounds.

Blocking: Takes his role as a blocker seriously. Shows good strength and effort blocking downfield, locking up the corner and working to seal his opponent from the action. Often sent in motion so he can provide a crack back block on an unsuspecting defensive end.

Intangibles: Good competitive fire for the position. Understands his role as a blocker in this offense and looks to help his teammates. Has impressed his coaching staff and teammates with his dedication in his rehabilitation from the torn patellar tendon. Refused to wear a knee brace during spring football and caught 13 passes for 210 yards and a 21-yard touchdown during three spring scrimmages.

My emphasis

Sound like the type of guy who can learn quickly (a problem for the Pats with their recent picks), can get open deep and has a Patriot type ethic.

With him taking a no1 role and Kendall Wright a Deoin Branch role (I've seen him mentioned as a Branch/Steve Smith type player) and Jarius Wright as a return specialist who could blossom into a Branch type role then we'd be set. I'm not suggesting we triple dip but these are the three I most see benefiting the Patriots.

 

[ay-yo]

Agreed, regarding the draft. A smart GM takes what the market gives him, if the defensive talent simply isn’t there to give us enough of an impact to justify the opportunity cost then we should pursue other options, one of them being an upgrade to the offense. Currently my ideal situation is McNutt/Broyles in the 2-4th rounds with perhaps DeCastro early on. If Couples fell I think my arm could be twisted to draft him, but God, I hate his arms.

Whats your thoughts on Jeffery in the first?

I wouldnt hesitate to pull the trigger if I had him rated significantly higher than all other prospects left.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Whats your thoughts on Jeffery in the first?

I wouldnt hesitate to pull the trigger if I had him rated significantly higher than all other prospects left.

I’d certainly be tempted if he fell, though I am a little concerned that he’s porked up over time. I’d probably opt to go defense earlier on, especially if a blue chip prospect was available for the D-line, and go for a receiver or two later on, like Broyles and McNutt. I’ve looked at some footage of Childs and like what I see, gotta love a receiver that blocks! Kendall Wright is most filthy but I think he goes early 2nd at this point, maybe even late 1st, a bit too gourmet for my tastes, I’d much prefer to resign Welker and groom Broyles to potentially take over the Welker role down the road, while adding a taller outside/deep guy to spice things up.

I also want to beef up/deepen the O-line, this season has been a testament to hot critical depth is to a football team, and my current binkie is Senio Kelemete at Guard/Center, and I also want another TE, Michael Williams out of Alabama gets the nod right now, so if it’s a choice between Jeffery in the 1st and trading that pick back a ways to be able to grab Broyles, McNutt, Kelemete, Williams, and maybe Childs too, then that’s an easy choice for me.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Jeffries is an interesting case. Again another WR with talent who is stuck with no college QB to throw to him. He has the size and speed to be a great WR, but the lack of a decent QB to get him the ball, and the emergence (until his knee blew up) of Lattimore, as really hidden him.

I tried to watch him the other day, and he did make a few plays, but sometimes he seems disinterested. IF, he is motivated, he could be an absolute beast, OR on the other hand, he could eat his way out of the league.

Of course, maybe he looked disinterested last week, because I just found out he broke his hand....
http://www.wtvy.com/sports/headline...on_Jeffrey_Suffers_Broken_Hand_134634668.html

 

[DaBruinz]

Two guys from lesser D1 schools who seem interesting are Kendall Wright and Patrick Edwards.

Edwards has taken the Wes Welker route to become Houston's top receiver (he was a walk-on at Houston the way Welker was for Texas Tech). And all he's done is put up 1000+ yard seasons 3 years straight. The difference is that Edwards has a lot of game speed in comparison to Welker. Edwards has done kick returns and Punt returns for Houston.

Kendall Wright plays for Baylor and is another small receiver with speed. As well as being a WR, Wright has been used as a RB and a WildCat QB. Wright has been Baylor's leading receiver over the last 4 years and has set records for Baylor. Wright has not really been used for kick returns (1) or punt returns (6).

Wright is currently listed as the 4th best receiver by NFLDraft Scout (excluding Juniors). Edwards is listed as the 33rd best receiver by NFLDraftScout. Edwards is definitely a sleeper pick and I think might have a lower risk and higher reward potential. Especially since he has both kick return and punt return ability.

 

[D-Money]

I like Kendall Wright but i dont think he will be there when the pats pick in the second round.In his pro day junior he was measured at 5'10 and some quarters.So he isnt 5'9.I would like to get him.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I like Kendall Wright but i dont think he will be there when the pats pick in the second round.In his pro day junior he was measured at 5'10 and some quarters.So he isnt 5'9.I would like to get him.

He reminds me of Terry Glenn. Without the attitude. More than likely we'll trade down from 1b. If we don't move down too far into the 2nd he might be available with the first of our what would then be three 2nd rounders.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Jeffries is an interesting case. Again another WR with talent who is stuck with no college QB to throw to him. He has the size and speed to be a great WR, but the lack of a decent QB to get him the ball, and the emergence (until his knee blew up) of Lattimore, as really hidden him.

I tried to watch him the other day, and he did make a few plays, but sometimes he seems disinterested. IF, he is motivated, he could be an absolute beast, OR on the other hand, he could eat his way out of the league.

Of course, maybe he looked disinterested last week, because I just found out he broke his hand....
South Carolina's Alshon Jeffrey Suffers Broken Hand

Him, the kid from UNC who's name is escaping me, Floyd, and Greg Childs (who if he returns healthy could be the steal of the draft) are all guys I have an eye on because of their size. Childs when healthy is probably the fastest of them all followed by Jeffrey. Sanu has everything you want in a possession receiver and he flashes big play ability every now and again. He looks like a fringe 1st round pick at this point. Hoping for a big target with big play potential. Brady has nobody outside of maybe Gronk that he can throw it up to and let the receiver make a play. The back shoulder fade route is virtually non existant in this offense and when used properly is throw to stop in football especially against press.

 

[Sciz]

In 12 drafts with the Patriots, Belichick has drafted a WR over 6'1" once, and that was PK Sam in the 5th round. Don't get your hopes up for a tall WR.

I just realized today how much turnover we might see at WR this offseason. Welker is a free agent. Branch is a free agent. Ochocinco and Price are candidate to be cut. Edelman might be moved to defense full time. Slater is also a free agent, but that's really a ST spot, not a WR spot. So assuming Welker is back either by franchise tag or new contract, we could see anywhere from 0% turnover to 80% turnover at those 5 WR roster spots

 

[TriplecHamp]

In 12 drafts with the Patriots, Belichick has drafted a WR over 6'1" once, and that was PK Sam in the 5th round. Don't get your hopes up for a tall WR.

I just realized today how much turnover we might see at WR this offseason. Welker is a free agent. Branch is a free agent. Ochocinco and Price are candidate to be cut. Edelman might be moved to defense full time. Slater is also a free agent, but that's really a ST spot, not a WR spot. So assuming Welker is back either by franchise tag or new contract, we could see anywhere from 0% turnover to 80% turnover at those 5 WR roster spots

well he's only drafted 4-5 WR in the first 3 rounds in those 12 years and at this point with the NFL moving more towards bigger wideouts (hence the drafting/signing of larger corners recently) I hope if we go wr in the first 2 rounds it will be one of those bigger targets who's slipped. Some of these QB's just throw it up there and get away with it consistently, Id like to see what Brady would do with a luxury like that.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In 12 drafts with the Patriots, Belichick has drafted a WR over 6'1" once, and that was PK Sam in the 5th round. Don't get your hopes up for a tall WR.

I just realized today how much turnover we might see at WR this offseason. Welker is a free agent. Branch is a free agent. Ochocinco and Price are candidate to be cut. Edelman might be moved to defense full time. Slater is also a free agent, but that's really a ST spot, not a WR spot. So assuming Welker is back either by franchise tag or new contract, we could see anywhere from 0% turnover to 80% turnover at those 5 WR roster spots

Welker will not reach FA. Either he'll be tagged or they'll reach a deal. And even if Edelceiver becomes Edelback, I still see him getting snaps at receiver.

 

[strat54]

Jeffries is an interesting case. Again another WR with talent who is stuck with no college QB to throw to him. He has the size and speed to be a great WR, but the lack of a decent QB to get him the ball, and the emergence (until his knee blew up) of Lattimore, as really hidden him.

I tried to watch him the other day, and he did make a few plays, but sometimes he seems disinterested. IF, he is motivated, he could be an absolute beast, OR on the other hand, he could eat his way out of the league.

Of course, maybe he looked disinterested last week, because I just found out he broke his hand....

no offense but its hard to take you seriously when you call him "jeffries." its jeffery.

anyway he's gained a little weight. alshon = mike williams



also i have seen Sanu play in person 2 times and he is a beast fwiw. I doubt he will fall very far though.

i like aj jenkins (ill), marvin jones (cal), dj woods (uc), criner (az), and derek moye (psu) from a value standpoint