OT: Analyzing the Jets

So they have "revamped" to some degree the O-line, assuming Woody can handle RTackle for more than 5 games. My sense is he'll keep his weight down with a familiar face around like Mangini, but get injured by about week 7. DBrick should be a bit better. Faneca was not as bad last season as Steeler fans made it seem.

IMO the year TJones was supposed to impersonate C. Dillon and carry the Jets into the playoffs was 2007. He is already 30, and although he didn't carry the ball much early in his career, he has shouldered a heavy burden for about 5 seasons. He is not a dynamic player, more a grind it out in the box rb. L. Washignton is actually their best rb option, and if given more carries could develop into Warrick Dunn type lead back. But that won't happen in 2008. So the ground game should be decent, but not dominant, especially because no Qb on the Jet roster can stretch the field.

IMO they will go with Pennington for as long as he can stay upright. They got full of themselves and thought they could find the next Brady in Clemens, but eventually realized Clemens can't even carry Pennington's jock. They were looking for more than Pennington, and discovered there's alot worse. I actually think the best Qb on their roster is E. Ainge, though I'm sure I'm in a tiny monority.

The best comparison to Coles and Cotchery is Branch/Givens. They are solid, dependable winning players in the right situation. Baker is an underrated and underused TE in their scheme, and it looks like they have burned their bridges with the Keller pick. That is good news for Pat fans, because while Keller is a dynamic athlete, the QBs on the Jets don't have the height to deliver the ball adequately to a 6'2'' TE up the seam. What they needed was a player like Carlson, 6'5'', who although slow, provides their popgun, short Qbs with a big target.

Jenkins is probably good for one decent year, a la Ted Washington. K. Coleman and the other DEs are nothing special, but could impersonate Bobby Hamilton, which is what Mangini is looking for. The LBing corps is strong, with Harris, Pace and Gholston. Apparently they will play Pace over the TE, and Gholston on the blind side.

I was high on Gholston before the draft. I believe he will be at minimum a quality starting OLB. I see no reason to downgrade that assessment just because he's playing for the Jets. But he may not become that quality player until year 2. I don't think Pace or Gholston will be effective in coverage, because that will require a complete understanding of the scheme. if AD struggled a bit digesting it all in his 1st season with the Pats, I expect Pace and especially Gholston to have twice the growing pains. They will simplify things for Gholston and let him rush the passer, which he will do well in spurts. I can see him ending up with 9 or so sacks, while getting screened to death. Pace will get bored if he has to play the Vrabel role and shadow the TE, after making his bones as a PRusher last season.

The secondary has some above average players in Revis, an emerging star, and Rhodes, who is good but does not seem to be the dynamic blitzer he was in 2006.

Overall I would say the 2008 Jets will resemble the 2006 version more than the 2007 version. But now people know what to expect from Schottenheimer's multiple offensive sets, and are prepared to counteract them. The schedule is not brutal, and 9-7 seems like a strong possibility provided Pennignton stays healthy. If Pennignton goes down early, and Clemens has to emerge, 8-8 seems like the ceiling, with a 5-11 disaster very possible. If things start to go bad, Mangini and Sutton are not charismatic enough to keep players who have already gotten paid engaged. It could get ugly, so a fast start is crucial to stave off fat cat fatigue.

Unfortunately, 8-8 is still not bad enough to get Mangini canned. But going into 2009, no matter what happens, the Jets will have to break in a 3rd Qb, find another rb, and L. Coles will be on his last legs. Meanwhile, I see the Pats just as strong and Buffalo improving by leaps and bounds, and Parcells in his second season of rebuilding. Long term I see the Jets treading water and foundering in mediocrity. Barring some green miracle Jet fans will finish Mangini off in 2009.

7-9 Book It!

I agree with most of what you said, except I think they are going with Clemens rather than Pennington. They're just keeping Chad as a backup, IMO. Otherwise, they would have gotten somebody else in the draft or free agency.

other than the damein woody signing, the jets have improved a lot on all positions except QB with their free agency and draft. i expect them to be a lot tougher this yr. even in the 2nd game agaist us last yr their defense gave the pats a lot of different looks.

Great Assessment ... Bill Callahan will be running the offense I think this year coming up ..

I agree with basically all of the original post.

Callahan is coaching the OL by the way.

I would be money they go with Pennington. Mangini does need to win now and Pennington is probably more reliable than Clemens is.

The Jets draft strategy has been interesting. Last year, in a weak draft, they traded up to get two guys who are cornerstones of their defense, in Revis and Harris, along with Kerry Rhodes. This year though, they traded away a 4 to get Keller, and of course took Gholston at 6. They also traded away a #3 for Kris Jenkins (which they needed to do, but who knows how long he will be good or in shape).

So the Jets basically have brought in 4 rookies in the last 2 years, not counting 5-6-7 round picks who are rarely impact players on O or D. I'm not knocking the strategy, and they did a great job last year. But the Jets do not have a lot of depth on their roster, so they better hit with both of their first-rounders this year.

Clearly though, they've upgraded the talent level. Their schedule is good out of the league too, playing 3rd place teams Tennessee and Cincinnati along with the weak NFC West and not good save one team AFC West. I'd be surprised if they won less than 7 games. I don't know if they'll make the playoffs (NE, Indy, Pitt, SD, Jax, Tennessee, Cleveland, Denver?, Buffalo) should all be good, but the Jets will be a competitive team and that will be enough to keep Mangini.

the jets suck and will be lucky as hell to make it into the playoffs as a wildcard team cause we all know there not winning the division anytime soon..

PatsDeb said:

I agree with most of what you said, except I think they are going with Clemens rather than Pennington. They're just keeping Chad as a backup, IMO. Otherwise, they would have gotten somebody else in the draft or free agency.

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Give Pennington ample time and protection behind the line and he can at least be effective. His drawback is that he doesn't have a lot of range so I think he's a lot easier for D's to cover.

It's tough for me to say much about Clemens. Clearly both will have a chance to earn the starting spot, and it will be interesting to see what Clemens will do with some added protection.

Overall the Jets need to overpay players (Woody) and the fact that other players on the team seem to be routinely blackmailing the front office into trading them or extending them will catch up with them quickly if they don't have a winning season.

That reality can only be countered by winning - and if they don't make the playoffs I'd expect Woody Johnson (*giggle*) to cut bait with MagnIdiot.

Eh, the Jets will be a little better. I see 6-10 at best. Let's not forget that it's the Jets we're talking about here. When was the last time they made a move that DIDN'T backfire?

Rhodes is better than "good".. His stats suffered due to the lack of talent on that defense.. He is one of the top safties in the AFC

pretty fair assessment. i think the jets have done a nice job at patchworking their team. they have filled their pot holes for the next 2-3 years. however, after that, their team is in rough shape. they have destroyed any salary cap flexibility in the future(assuming there is a salary cap in the future). i have no idea why they are in "win-now" mode. i simply dont. you have the bills and the dolphins, who both realize the AFC EAST is the patriots division for the next 3-4 years at least, and who are focused on rebuilding the team through the draft. while the jets have added some nice pieces in the draft, they have focused on quality, rather than quantity and therefore have virtually no long term depth. so, congrats jets fans, you have 2-3 years of mediocrity. unless of couse ainge or clemens exceed expectations, which is unlikely. so, enjoy 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 the next 3 years jets fans, because after that, your in for another overhaul.

NE_PATS_FAN_54 said:

pretty fair assessment. i think the jets have done a nice job at patchworking their team. they have filled their pot holes for the next 2-3 years. however, after that, their team is in rough shape. they have destroyed any salary cap flexibility in the future(assuming there is a salary cap in the future). i have no idea why they are in "win-now" mode. i simply dont. you have the bills and the dolphins, who both realize the AFC EAST is the patriots division for the next 3-4 years at least, and who are focused on rebuilding the team through the draft. while the jets have added some nice pieces in the draft, they have focused on quality, rather than quantity and therefore have virtually no long term depth. so, congrats jets fans, you have 2-3 years of mediocrity. unless of couse ainge or clemens exceed expectations, which is unlikely. so, enjoy 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 the next 3 years jets fans, because after that, your in for another overhaul.

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This was why Bill tried to tell Eric not to do it. The JETS are in win now mode because they are a NY team competing for the back page of the Post with another NY football team and two baseball teams, not to mention a bb franchise and a hockey team. It was tough enough when Woody was obcessed with us, now he has the reigning world champs to share a venue with... When you combine an owners ego with those of a young supposed genius HC and a GM driven enough to pull a coup - both of whom are driven to keep their jobs - you get irrational decisionmaking. I think Eric and Tannenbaum are also exacerbating their own situation inside the locker room. It's tough to make wholesale changes to a veteran culture absent the committment to longterm rebuilding. Likewise it's tough to crack the whip on a loosing team. Players will endure that if they are winning. If the JETS get off to a rough start this season, all hell could break loose. The finger will either point at Mangini or some high priced aging FA's or once again at the guys who are caught in between them (including Pennington and Clemens) and already feeling a little screwed.

Mike Lombardi and some of the other commentators who felt the JETS perhaps should have made a play for Ryan (when it looked like ATL was going to take Dorsey) are convinced that Clemens will hold up no better than Noodle because he's undersized to take a beating and he lacks the arm strength to stretch the field as well. And if the projected QB crop is even worse next season they are really in a pickle. You just can't win in this league without at least a functional QB. And you can't win consistently enough to matter without a franchise QB.

I hope Manbeeotch has his team self-implode on him, while he develops the worst case of jungle crotch rot in recorded history.

RPMCanes said:

I hope Manbeeotch has his team self-implode on him, while he develops the worst case of jungle crotch rot in recorded history.

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As do I, my friend, as do I. I can never give the Jets credit for anything. Not because I'm a homer, but because I have a strong, intense hatred for that ball club.

I hate JETS, their fans and NY media as much as anyone on this board if not more. The JETS fans, NY media and their obsession and lies, propaganda about BB and video incident makes my skin crawl whenever I see a JETS jersey.

Keeping my hatred for them aside, I think JETS improved their team especially on the defensive side a lot in the draft and FA. I hope all the money they spent on Pace, Woody, Jenkins goes down the drain and they suck pretty bad. But if their moves work along with draft, they will have a very good defense. I hope ManGINA fails miserably in motivating Jenkins and Ghoulston. I hope Woody sucks and I hope they go 7-9 and suck forever. But let us not underestimate them.

I don't seem them getting much better. Too many new players in the starting lineup with no chemistry. Pace and Gholston are both pass rushing DEs. Who is going to cover the TE? I say we play 2 TE set all game, and make the LBs play catch up.

Pennington will be starting day1. He is making something like 8 million this year. You don't keep an 8 million dollar player on the bench. Tho it's the same old story, Pennington will get hurt or make a bunch of mistakes and Clemens will be asked to take the reigns again.

The key to their team is will Faneca get the running game going. Jones was a non factor last year, and the Jets O suffered. If they can establish a running attack it will take a lot of pressure off of the QBs and give Pennington some time to setup his dinks and dunks he's best at. Fancea got his contract so now time will tell if he still has the motivation he did when he was making less money.

oh no. They're on to us

http://www.jetsinsider.com/forums/showthread.php?t=169521

Watching film of Gholston and correct me if I'm wrong but all I see is him bull rushing the QB with power and some balance ... that will not work in the NFL 99% of the time. He usually does it running very low to the ground ... he's going to be pancaked until he drops.

Sivy said:

oh no. They're on to us

http://www.jetsinsider.com/forums/showthread.php?t=169521

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I love how Pats fans can provide them with a better analysis of their god awful team than Jets fans can.

According to a site which I assume is Jets friendly, next season's financial situation could be interesting:

http://nyjetscap.com/salary09.html

The Jets are already over $121 million on the cap for 2009, while Miguel has New England's 2009 cap spending listed at under $95 million right now. Both teams reach those numbers with just about 40 players on the roster. If both numbers are correct, New England will be able to re-sign key players and/or bring in some free agents, while New York could be in a position of needing to cut players to stay under the cap.

The Jets start the season with Miami, New England, San Diego and Arizona before getting a bye week. A 1-3 start is not out of the question by any means, and that could make for a very long bye week as the coaching staff and front office ponder a long 2008 season and a 2009 season with little cap maneuverability.