Polian is spot on. Expect some major curveballs

Ross12 said:

Polian is a sack of ****, but he's 100% correct here and I have to credit him for saying it. To build on the quote @mike_usagisan posted above - Mac Jones was great at A) recognizing a defense, B) processing, C) knowing where to go with the ball, but failed spectacularly at D) doing it accurately under pressure. Unfortunately he was not pressured very much behind that Alabama line, so it was probably hard to determine how he'd do, but it was worth a try. If they had given him a grade A+ offensive line, would he have panned out better? Coaching woes aside, yeah probably. But that's not realistic either - OL injuries are frequent so you need to be able to operate with pressure.

Minding the above points, Drake Maye is probably your best pick. But they all have their warts to some extent. Maye just best checks the most important core boxes and his issues are things you can fix with time, if he puts the effort in. At the same time, maybe someone like McCarthy or Bo Nix are better at some of these things than we realize, because to Polian's point, we don't have all the info. Were they limited by the scheme they were in, or by what the coaches demanded they do?

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I think a point that people forget is there are a limited number of QBs who are even able to do most of those 4 things well in any draft. That's how Mac got taken in the first round.

Is Maye capable of all 4? Or McCarthy? Who knows? But if you have no QB, as we currently do not, you have to take a chance on one of them and hope that any areas where they're not good enough at can be taught out of them.

The draft is a crapshoot. If we're lucky, we're not talking about looking for a QB in the first round again in three years.

Rob0729 said:

Everyone have become in love with these QBs who can make circus throws, run for 50 yards, extending plays by running around in the backfield for ten seconds, etc. that they totally ignore the fundamentals of the position.

If Mahomes couldn't do all the things Polian said was important like read defense, process information fast, know where to get the ball, etc., he would be Trey Lance or Justin Fields.

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i don't watch college football so my first exposure to mahomes was when he was on the gruden quarterback camp. I remember thinking "man this kid is smart as a whip and I love his attitude and energy." and then I kind of went from there with him on the field.in fact I thought before the draft that Sean Payton would really want him,that he was his kind of quarterback that sort of firecracker, fearless, competitive guy. I will go to my grave thinking that Sean Payton was pretty pissed off when the chiefs traded up to get mahomes.

mike_usagisan said:

I think this part is right:

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It's spot on.

The Gr8est said:

So then…..

It should be McCarthy.

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Agree he seems like at worst his foor is Alex Smith we can compete with that.

He makes a great point, only the teams that interviewed them have a lot more info than us and all the draft gurus. Let's hope they pick the right one.

lancerman said:

They didn't, but to Polian's point, he's right. Mahomes ended up working his ass off and became a smart QB who makes the right reads. That probably manifested most in year 3 of his career where you saw him take the mental jump in his game. Prior to that he kinda benefited from people not gameplanning properly for his physical intangibles.

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I casually mentioned this in the 2024 QB Draft thread, but in looking back at Mahomes' predraft interviews, I was impressed by his answer to DPatrick's question of where he wants to go. He seemed very genuine about it, too. I enjoyed the rest of the interview as well.

"For me, it's not necessarily the team I'm getting picked by, or where I'm at by the draft. I just wanna get coached well."

Brotherblues said:

I'll expand on something I've said before:

If you don't crack top 10 or 12 in the league, you're considered a bust at QB. A top 25 WR or CB or IOL is a very good player. The 25th QB is trash.

In other positions, guys are cycled out of the top of the hierarchy by age 30. The better QBs are now expected to play at a high level at age 37 and beyond. This makes many of the spots in the top 10-12 very much set in stone for a LONG time, adding an extra barrier of entry into the elite sphere.

I'm not a scout or a former GM, but this is common sense math as to why drafting a QB is so much harder than other positions.

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just funny math

A team plays ONE quarterback and three WR's. Others are backups.

The top 25 WR's are top WR's.
The top 10-12 QB's are top QB's.

so?
On average, every team has 25/32 top WR's
and 11/32 top QB's

So, on average, 25 teams have a top WR, but only 1/3 have a top QB.
=========================
CONCLUSION
Yup, it is harder to draft a TOP quarterback than a TOP WR.

mike_usagisan said:

I think a point that people forget is there are a limited number of QBs who are even able to do most of those 4 things well in any draft. That's how Mac got taken in the first round.

Is Maye capable of all 4? Or McCarthy? Who knows? But if you have no QB, as we currently do not, you have to take a chance on one of them and hope that any areas where they're not good enough at can be ta

Click to expand...

Is Maye really the best choice? To, being able to process quickly and recognizing defenses are NOT Maye's strong suit.

“The most difficult thing you have to judge with a quarterback is a) his ability to recognize defenses, b) his ability to process it quickly, c) his ability to know where to go with the football and d) the ability to do it accurately under pressure.

At this point it wouldn't be hard to create a VR experience where these guys are tested on their ability to learn and adapt in game situations. That would be a lot more useful at the combine than the physical drills.

mgteich said:

Is Maye really the best choice? To, being able to process quickly and recognizing defenses are NOT Maye's strong suit.

“The most difficult thing you have to judge with a quarterback is a) his ability to recognize defenses, b) his ability to process it quickly, c) his ability to know where to go with the football and d) the ability to do it accurately under pressure.

Click to expand...

No idea. But I think that might be why Wolf is hedging on who they're still considering for QBs. Maybe they don't like Maye as much as everyone thinks they do?

The Gr8est said:

So then…..

It should be McCarthy.

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Cousins,
This will be quick to get to my point. Started the morning with a veggie omelet and American cheese, a brioche English muffin with wild blueberry jam, tea and cranberry juice.

Actually the only QB that played in a Pro system was NOT one of the Holy Three plus one and the two leftovers. Spencer Rattler played for SEC South Carolina for Shane Beamer and OC Dowell Loggains. Loggains installed a Pro system and Rattler played under center. Loggains worked for Parcells and Sean Payton. He was OC for several Pro Teams.

• RATTLER:
• "Legit arm talent — put on the 2023 Florida game if you have doubts. Also reference the first-quarter boundary throw to Xavier Legette against North Carolina last year and/or their TD connection vs. Notre Dame in 2022, or the rollout pass vs. Furman in the late second quarter last year
• Nimble and fluid movement skills both in the pocket and open field. Functional escapability with his legs — not going to blow anyone away with Michael Vick-like run but is plenty capable of creating yardage, rolling out, and buying time
• Pretty good touch and ball placement on the ball at all levels — this is occasionally evident when he’s under pressure (see the touch pass to Trey Knox vs. Texas A&M in the third quarter)
• Experience in multiple offensive schemes — has taken snaps from shotgun, under center, and in pistol for RPO plays
• Displayed on-field mechanical improvement throughout his collegiate career, despite his passing stats falling off after 2020
• Took a lot of snaps (1,313) and played in 48 games
• Unafraid to take a bit hit if hanging in there means he can deliver a pass to an uncovering target
• Went from being one of the top prospects to losing his job and transferred, handling the adversity well enough"

He's small? He is the same size as Caleb at 6'1" 212lbs

Rattler was trained by an actual NFL coordinator.

His stats were mediocre because of a crippled OL for 2023. Kind of like Mahommes who's record was 13-19 at Texas Tech....huhh

This article put a QB like Rattler into a better light of how much more advanced he is to a pro system.

His big negative was he needed to mature and be humble. He learned quickly . He might have the second best arm in the Draft.

How about Dropping down to #11 and #23 and a 2025 first. Taking a blue chipper WR or LT and Drafting Rattler , whom I feel will not get out of Round two, perhaps at #34?




Boo me if you like .
DW Toys

​

mike_usagisan said:

I think this part is right:

Click to expand...

Yep true, and mainly because the off script, running around stuff is not sustainable the other stuff is.

Sam Bam Cunningham said:

Hall of Famer Bill Polian rants about the NFL’s problem with evaluating quarterbacks

Polian explains the disconnect between media analysts and draft choices. He explains the reason why QBs get pushed up the draft.

sports.yahoo.com

All these mock drafts are probably a waste of time

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The only thing as worthless as a mock draft are those people who assign a W or and L to every single game before the season starts.

Sam Bam Cunningham said:

Hall of Famer Bill Polian rants about the NFL’s problem with evaluating quarterbacks

Polian explains the disconnect between media analysts and draft choices. He explains the reason why QBs get pushed up the draft.

sports.yahoo.com

All these mock drafts are probably a waste of time

Click to expand...

**** Bill naPolian.

DW Toys said:

How about Dropping down to #11 and #23 and a 2025 first. Taking a blue chipper WR or LT and Drafting Rattler , whom I feel will not get out of Round two, perhaps at #34?

Click to expand...

That looks far fetched but very wise.

Drake Maye’s OL and scheme last season at UNC was head and shoulders better than Rattler’s at South Carolina.

Rattler is going to shock a lot of people how much he will thrive in the league.

Lay off the brioche, DW, and eat more eggs.

mike_usagisan said:

Is Maye capable of all 4? Or McCarthy? Who knows?

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McAdoo knows. That is who knows.

One-If-By-Sea said:

McAdoo knows. That is who knows.

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The Shadow knows.

Triumph said:

Not a single draft expert called out Mahomes as the pick of a lifetime.

None

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I am sure that if you ask Bill Polian, he will tell you "I knew it all along"

Brotherblues said:

I'll expand on something I've said before:

If you don't crack top 10 or 12 in the league, you're considered a bust at QB. A top 25 WR or CB or IOL is a very good player. The 25th QB is trash.

In other positions, guys are cycled out of the top of the hierarchy by age 30. The better QBs are now expected to play at a high level at age 37 and beyond. This makes many of the spots in the top 10-12 very much set in stone for a LONG time, adding an extra barrier of entry into the elite sphere.

I'm not a scout or a former GM, but this is common sense math as to why drafting a QB is so much harder than other positions.

Click to expand...

True. Once you have a top 10 QB, you can pretty much expect to compete every year in the playoffs. And with modern medicine those QBs stay in the elite stratosphere longer.

Just look at TB12. I mean he was a freak of nature in terms of longevity but an elite QB in the NFL now can be expected to go till age 40 at least as long as they haven't lost their drive to play the game. Because of this QB is just the most important position in the game.

VJCPatriot said:

True. Once you have a top 10 QB, you can pretty much expect to compete every year in the playoffs. And with modern medicine those QBs stay in the elite stratosphere longer.

Just look at TB12. I mean he was a freak of nature in terms of longevity but an elite QB in the NFL now can be expected to go till age 40 at least as long as they haven't lost their drive to play the game. Because of this QB is just the most important position in the game.

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Once you start succeeding, your QB costs $40M AAV and some of your stars start costing $20M AAV. Getting a top 10 QB is great, but then there is the cap window created for all but the very best.