Bill Belichick is one of the most fascinating human beings on the planet to watch and interpret because he NEVER shows his cards.
But here are some things I believe about the man of mystery.
1. He's been thinking seriously about Tom Brady's replacement for the last 5 years, to the point of being prepared to trade Tom in order to replace him with Jimmy G., and was only prevented by the Krafts.
2. He knew that Tom would almost certainly leave this year, given the behind-the-scenes activity.
3. He was prepared to go all-in on Baker Mayfield in 2018. He shopped Gronk to the Lions, at least in part because he wanted the draft capital to move up. Rumours came out from the Giants that they might make a blockbuster trade even after Gronk vetoed the Detroit move. As it turned out, Cleveland took Mayfield with the first pick and the Pats didn't draft a quarterback until Danny Etling in the 7th round -- a wasted year, from the point of view of the quarterback replacement search.
4. He didn't draft Stidham last year believing that he would be the long-term answer. If they'd have been as high on Stidham as they were on, say, Garoppolo at the same stage, they'd have taken him earlier. It's not as though Williams or Harris were can't-miss steals, and, if you think you have the quarterback of the future in your sights, you can't risk someone else sharing your judgement. A third or even a second might have been a "reach" at the time for Stidham, but worth it if they were convinced.
4. He's not in love with Josh Rosen. The Pats could easily have afforded to trade for him last year but didn't.
So nothing would surprise me tonight.
A blockbuster trade? But for whom? Outside Burrow and Tagovailoa, there doesn't seem to be a compelling candidate. Standing pat and letting Stidham and (*gulp*) Hoyer fight it out for the starting job? Taking a quarterback in the mid to late rounds and making it a three-way competition?
Another compelling story is coming up, whether the dog barks in the night-time or it doesn't.