I don't think Bill is better than his top peers at talent selection. What makes him great is he has a value system that he sticks to, he gives himself many more at bats than his peers and he tries to build a team not a collection of talent.
Ernie and Bill treat it like a doctorate class in economics which in many ways it is. They just use draft capital and value against salary to gain a competitive advantage. When a vet starts making more salary than what they think his value is they let him walk and take the comp pick to get more value. They may take a short term hit in talent at a position but they're usually in a better value situation. Sure you would love to still have Trey Flowers, just not at 17/year. Simon, Winovich, Wise.....not nearly the player Flowers is but combined they make less than a third of what he makes for 80% of the output.
We compared the Steelers 2nd round picks vs the Patriots a few years ago during one of the "Patriots can't draft in the 2nd round" rants. I forget the exact numbers but the Patriots and Steelers had roughly the same percentage of hits in the second round but the Patriots had twice the number of selections in the same time period. Bill knows that as good as they are they're going to miss. He's giving himself more hits by playing the numbers.
It's not like any of this is a revelation. We've had this discussion a lot over the years.
