Well, the conversation started with the suggestion of signing Eric Reid, so that’s where I got the idea of a player being expensive. If you personally never suggested him, then apologies, but you directly quoted my response to another poster who did.
I don’t know who would be signed that would be an improvement on DMcC, Chung, or Harmon—so for me, the conversation quickly shifts towards the 4th safety. I would’ve loved to have drafted a safety for this role and for the future. Belichick did not agree.
I understand.
Going back even further in the general conversation (even to early March, when names like Suh, Richardson, etc. were being casually tossed around without regard for the cap), Reid was indeed part of that conversation - along with Vaccaro, Tre Boston, and a couple of others. At that point, Reid was right up there with Suh, et al, as players who were likely to be way too expensive.
However, the way the market for safeties has played out since then, that expense may not be so ridiculously high as was once thought. While the media conversation has largely been focused on Reid's (apparent) contention that he's being "black-balled" (no pun intended, but ...) for his political stance, some analysts have been taking note of the fact that (1) several other solid, former starting safeties are also still looking for work, (2) for those who
have been signed, the contracts have been much lower than expected, and (3) safety prospects like Justin Reid and Ronnie Harrison - who were projected to be selected in the early 2nd-round, if not the late 1st - ended up falling to #68 and #93, respectively.
This has led to growing speculation that the safety position may now be experiencing a "market correction", in terms of value, similar to what the RB position has experienced over the past few years.
Anyway, the focus has been on Reid for fairly obvious reasons, and he's inadvertently become the default exemplar for my hypothesis. But, he's not the
only example - there are others still out there looking for work who may also be "capable starters" and who would likely be considerably less expensive. In a "down market" for safeties, that may translate to "affordable", cap-wise. Even Reid himself may end up with a 2018 cap hit much closer to Chung's $3.6M than to D-Mac's $11.9M (which may now be considered "luxurious", relatively speaking, in the current market context).
Taking this a step further, it's also possible that BB/Caserio saw this context as it was developing and - rather than address the position using draft capital on yet another unproven prospect (Richards, Wilson) - they chose instead to go with AJ Moore (UDFA) and are currently sifting through the several veteran safeties who are still available - IOW, they may be beginning to approach the safety position similarly to the way they've previously approached the RB position - paying a (now) relatively slight premium for proven experience. Richards' 2018 cap hit is $1.18M (not totally unreasonable for a good special-teamer), so, if they can sign an NFL-proven, capable veteran for around $2M, they may be gaining a significant and instant roster improvement for an "upcharge" of roughly $800k.
Again, I'm not saying that this
will happen or
should happen - just that this
may be a more realistic option/opportunity than is popularly assumed.
Anyway, in my hypothesis (which assumes "affordability"), it's not necessary that this veteran FA safety be "better than", but merely more or less equal to the Pats current starting trio. In which case, why would he necessarily be a "backup" who "sits" most of the time? This isn't comparable to, say, RB (or Center) - where there's usually only one on the field at a time. We
know that the Pats have been using three safeties for more than half the defensive snaps (and were doing so even before last year's LB scarcity).
Also, under such a circumstance, the re-distribution of snaps at safety wouldn't necessarily be a radical "equal time for everyone" thing. Instead of last year's ...
- D-Mac = 1029
- Chung = 928
- Harmon = 702
- Richards = 272
(2931 total)
... it could be ...
- D-Mac = 900
- Chung = 800
- Harmon = 600
- "Player X" = 550
(2850 total)
Then, of course, all of this seems to inevitably lead to what may have become a sort of "third rail" of cap apportionment discussions.
Chung = $915k base/$3.80M cap hit
Richards = $941k base/$1.18M cap hit
Harmon = $1.50M base/$3.75M cap hit
D-Mac = $7.5M base/$11.94M cap hit
... (and $9.0M base/$13.44M cap hit in 2019)
If Chung, Harmon and Richards, or even "Player X", are being paid like RBs (and it's pretty close), then D-Mac is being paid like Le'Veon Bell. In this "cold business" of NFL football, I personally have to wonder how long that will stand, especially with D-Mac approaching his 31st birthday.
