Projected 53 man roster

RobertWeathers · Jun 25, 2017

Ivan said:
I'd add Ninkovich. There was a clear drop off in his play last season. Like Bruschi and Vrabel he needed to milk every ounce of athleticism he has to make it and it looked to me like he had lost that last season. Really like him but the time to retire may be upon him.

Like Billy Joel says. You may be right. You may be crazy...

His snap count was cut in 1/2 from 2015 but was more productive on a per snap basis than the last 3 years.

He's clearly at the end of the line but he does have some good football left on him here or elsewhere.

Ivan · Jun 25, 2017

robertweathers said:
Like Billy Joel says. You may be right. You may be crazy...

His snap count was cut in 1/2 from 2015 but was more productive on a per snap basis than the last 3 years.

He's clearly at the end of the line but he does have some good football left on him here or elsewhere.

I really like Ninkovich but I thought he had lost the athleticism he needed to be effective. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see ? I think McClellin is in danger as well, and possibly Freeney, I seriously doubt all 3 make the roster, and I wouldn't be surprised If none do.

RobertWeathers · Jun 25, 2017

Ivan said:
I really like Ninkovich but I thought he had lost the athleticism he needed to be effective. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see ? I think McClellin is in danger as well, and possibly Freeney, I seriously doubt all 3 make the roster, and I wouldn't be surprised If none do.

If Freeny makes the team I'd be shocked but that dude just sticks.

Nink has lost some lateral quickness but is still effective and relatively cheap.

Shea may be overpaid for his role but he did fine on D, good at STs and with the kids on the end of the line they may need him to put his hand on the ground more. An insurance policy if you will at DE, OLB and sometimes on the inside.

Mack Herron · Jun 25, 2017

Ivan said:
I'd add Ninkovich. There was a clear drop off in his play last season. Like Bruschi and Vrabel he needed to milk every ounce of athleticism he has to make it and it looked to me like he had lost that last season. Really like him but the time to retire may be upon him.

Statistically he has been declining for the last 4 years:

Yr/ tackles/ sacks
2013 / 91 / 8
2014 / 62 / 8
2015 / 52 / 6.5
2016 / 32/ 4

That's not the whole story, but he's 33 and I would not not be at all surprised if his number is up.

mgteich · Jun 26, 2017

Mack Herron said:
Statistically he has been declining for the last 4 years:

Yr/ tackles/ sacks
2013 / 91 / 8
2014 / 62 / 8
2015 / 52 / 6.5
2016 / 32/ 4

That's not the whole story, but he's 33 and I would not not be at all surprised if his number is up.

Just because a starter is decreasing in production doesn't mean that he has less value than the #5 DE that would replace him.

1) I believe that Ninkovich will continue to have decreasing production.

2) I believe that Ninkovich is far better a #5 DE than anyone that would replace him.

3) Ninkovich is worth his $1M salary in case of an injury, even if he spent most of the time on the bench.

ctpatsfan77 · Jun 26, 2017

luuked said:
With Waddle I would be more careful because you are always one OT injury away from jeopardizing your season. Personally, I'd rather have the depth there even if it means carrying one more OL body.

That would make sense if the Patriots didn't also have Fleming and just draft Garcia (a roster lock, barring injury or stabby-type stuff) and McDermott (not at all a lock).

supafly · Jun 26, 2017

long distance said:
Nice chart by Miguel . can help w projections
Interesting that the total # of WR+TE was always 9 (Slater incl.)

Couple/few things that I take from this:

--first time having 3 QBs since 2011, due to TB12's suspension last year. With 6 WRs (including Slater, of course) and 5 RBs (including Devlin), that tells me that everyone's favorite binky, DJ Foster, has quite the uphill climb and isn't likely to make the 53 man roster.

--with 9 total WR/TE being the norm, the real competition will be for the 3rd TE spot. I'd think that O'Shaughnessy has the upper hand going in.

--so, most of us will likely be in agreement with those four positions: QB (3), WR (6), RB (5), and TE (3). Of course, that could vary a bit, particularly due to injuries suffered prior to week one. The real question is how many OL positions we keep. I'm guessing 9, myself.

luuked · Jun 26, 2017

ctpatsfan77 said:
That would make sense if the Patriots didn't also have Fleming and just draft Garcia (a roster lock, barring injury or stabby-type stuff) and McDermott (not at all a lock).

I don't see how any of those 3 would challenge Weddle for backup tackle job. None of the two rookies should see any serious snaps this year but purely be developed. Fleming is the absolute emergency option plus a viable backup TE he has his spot safe.

So it makes absolute sense to keep Weddle especially because he is a bargain for a veteran backup in a position where you pray to get through the season without an injury.

long distance · Jun 26, 2017

luuked said:
I don't see how any of those 3 would challenge Weddle for backup tackle job. None of the two rookies should see any serious snaps this year but purely be developed. Fleming is the absolute emergency option plus a viable backup TE he has his spot safe.

So it makes absolute sense to keep Weddle especially because he is a bargain for a veteran backup in a position where you pray to get through the season without an injury.

Id be very surprised if Waddle can keep his job on this roster barring injury at the position. Fleming is clearly ahead of him as swing T plus add OL/TE. First glimpses at practice field in June showed Pats are high on Garcia. To me it looks like Dante could have him ready for a backup role by Sep (he made Thuney 100% starter in one summer; btw - Thuney can back up T as well). They have 4 more Ts. Hopefully McDermott and f.e. Rich can make it through waivers to PS, Jelks could be redshirted.

His contract is not keeping him either: 850.00 savings, 275.000 dead cap.

First week of TC should bring relatively clear picture how they see OL ..
____

EDIT: and im not even the biggest Garcia fan out there..

zydecochris · Jun 26, 2017

mgteich said:
Just because a starter is decreasing in production doesn't mean that he has less value than the #5 DE that would replace him.

1) I believe that Ninkovich will continue to have decreasing production.

2) I believe that Ninkovich is far better a #5 DE than anyone that would replace him.

3) Ninkovich is worth his $1M salary in case of an injury, even if he spent most of the time on the bench.

Nink has always been my favorite player not named Tom Brady simply because after being cut several times he managed to pull himself up through grit, determination, and hard work and have a good career despite clearly limited athleticism. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in some type of early coaching role in a couple of years. You heard it here first.

mgteich · Jun 26, 2017

supafly said:
Couple/few things that I take from this:

--first time of having 3 QBs since 2011, due to TB12's suspension last year. With 6 WRs (including Slater, of course) and 5 RBs (including Devlin), that tells me that everyone's favorite binky, DJ Foster, has quite the uphill climb and isn't likely to make the 53 man roster.

--with 9 total WR/TE being the norm, the real competition will be for the 3rd TE spot. I'd think that O'Shaughnessy has the upper hand going in.

--so, most of us will likely be in agreement with those four positions: QB (3), WR (6), RB (5), and TE (3). Of course, that could vary a bit, particularly due to injuries suffered prior to week one. The real question is how many OL positions we keep. I'm guessing 9, myself.

Are you keeping 26 on offense? The cost is a special teamer or Richards.

supafly · Jun 26, 2017

mgteich said:
Are you keeping 26 on offense? The cost is a special teamer or Richards.

That will be one of the storylines that I'll be keeping an eye on, for sure.

I would feel much more comfortable with that 9th OL, and I can't see any other way that spots can be shaved on offense. As you said, that would mean that a ST spot would be in jeopardy.

ctpatsfan77 · Jun 26, 2017

long distance said:
____

EDIT: and im not even the biggest Garcia fan out there..

Right now that's GRONK by a mile. For Garcia to beat him. . . .

BaconGrundleCandy · Jun 26, 2017

luuked · Jun 27, 2017

long distance said:
Id be very surprised if Waddle can keep his job on this roster barring injury at the position. Fleming is clearly ahead of him as swing T plus add OL/TE. First glimpses at practice field in June showed Pats are high on Garcia. To me it looks like Dante could have him ready for a backup role by Sep (he made Thuney 100% starter in one summer; btw - Thuney can back up T as well). They have 4 more Ts. Hopefully McDermott and f.e. Rich can make it through waivers to PS, Jelks could be redshirted.

His contract is not keeping him either: 850.00 savings, 275.000 dead cap.

First week of TC should bring relatively clear picture how they see OL ..
____

EDIT: and im not even the biggest Garcia fan out there..

There has not been a single true football practice so far this year. So I don't care much for what people (including the media) think they can read through the tea leaves based on contact-free, pad-less throwing drills. We will have a good idea where things are towards the end the first week of August.

If they can get rid of Waddle because the depth is strong enough to allow for it then great. But until we had some practices that involve actual hitting and pads I will just assume that most rookies are not substantially ahead of their projections.

mgteich · Jun 27, 2017

luuked said:
There has not been a single true football practice so far this year. So I don't care much for what people (including the media) think they can read through the tea leaves based on contact-free, pad-less throwing drills. We will have a good idea where things are towards the end the first week of August.

If they can get rid of Waddle because the depth is strong enough to allow for it then great. But until we had some practices that involve actual hitting and pads I will just assume that most rookies are not substantially ahead of their projections.

Waddle making the team has almost nothing to do with rookies. Garcia will make the 53, even if he is terrible. So, we have Cannon, Solder and Garcia. Unless we carry 5 OT's (chichis NOT going to happen), Waddle is competing with Fleming for the 4th OT. And yes, I understand that it is possible that both rookies will play so well that we need neither of the vets, but that is a long shot.

ctpatsfan77 · Jun 27, 2017

mgteich said:
Waddle making the team has almost nothing to do with rookies. Garcia will make the 53, even if he is terrible. So, we have Cannon, Solder and Garcia. Unless we carry 5 OT's (chichis NOT going to happen), Waddle is competing with Fleming for the 4th OT. And yes, I understand that it is possible that both rookies will play so well that we need neither of the vets, but that is a long shot.

It's also worth noting that Waddle has only been active for three games since he arrived in the middle of 2015.

zydecochris · Jun 27, 2017

mgteich said:
Waddle making the team has almost nothing to do with rookies. Garcia will make the 53, even if he is terrible. So, we have Cannon, Solder and Garcia. Unless we carry 5 OT's (chichis NOT going to happen), Waddle is competing with Fleming for the 4th OT. And yes, I understand that it is possible that both rookies will play so well that we need neither of the vets, but that is a long shot.

If it goes like last year, the Fleming / Waddle competition isn't going to be much of a battle. Last year Fleming took 284 snaps, 25.4% of the offensive plays. Waddle took 1 snap, 0.1% of the offensive plays.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2016-snap-counts.htm

As you point out, as a 3rd Round pick Garcia will make the 53. Fleming made a big leap forward last year in both performance and versatilty. Unless McDermott is an absolute revelation in Training Camp, the offensive tackles will be Solder, Cannon, Fleming, and Garcia.

varjao · Jun 27, 2017

David Harris is another lock on a roster already stacked, and we will carry 3 QB's on the roster, there will be some painful cuts this year.

luuked · Jun 27, 2017

mgteich said:
Waddle making the team has almost nothing to do with rookies. Garcia will make the 53, even if he is terrible. So, we have Cannon, Solder and Garcia. Unless we carry 5 OT's (chichis NOT going to happen), Waddle is competing with Fleming for the 4th OT. And yes, I understand that it is possible that both rookies will play so well that we need neither of the vets, but that is a long shot.

My main issue with it all is that people just underestimate how important (and rare) solid, cheap backup OTs are. I agree that it looks like it will be a battle between Waddle and Fleming if everyone makes it through camp without injuries. I just don't see the point in speculating about rookies and whoever taking snaps in OTAs and mini camp when practices are so limited that there really is almost no insight when it comes to certain groups. It was essentially a QB/WR/CB/S camp.

Anyway, can't wait for the real thing to start because it is slowly getting tedious..

Projected 53 man roster

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