Expectations for Mitchell next year?

Deus Irae said:

A lot of people overrated Dobson's rookie year. A lot of people didn't buy into the hype of "Better rookie than Branch". While it's tough to answer the O.P. without knowing what the WR corps will be, I expect Mitchell to press Hogan for the WR2 spot, unless the team brings in a Clear WR1/WR2 guy.

Click to expand...

Good point DI. I suspect we all agree Mitchell's outlook seems more promising based on how he has got here and what he has done so far. For Dobson it was always flashes of one step forward then disappointment of two steps back. To be fair injury made life tough on Dobson, however, the dreaded eye test suggests Mitchell has a very tangible possibility to be this decade's version of David Givens. Dobson just never could reach that sustained looking productivity he was capable of but never could get there.

Side question: if FLoyd is re-signed, does this squeeze Mitchell's possible targets? Or will they be different flavors of WR, and it is Hogan and Mitchell who are at odds?

Mitchell is a rangy, skinny kid whose best attribute is his hands. It's hard to imagine him being an impact player because he doesn't seem to have elite size, speed, or YAC ability. But not many rookies have earned Brady's trust that quickly. It'll be interesting to see what he can become.

I think he's going to take a few years to develop. I see his peak as a possible WR1, but next year, I'm seeing what a couple others on this board have predicted: 50-60 catches, 600-800 yards. Not predicting TDs because they're a fluke stat.

NormZauchin said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Aaron Dobson had a pretty good rookie season and then regressed.

Click to expand...

I get your point but too compare Dobson to Mitchell is like comparing apples to oranges. Mitchell has enormous hands whereass Aaron Dobson has well below average sized hands for an NFL (or former NFL) receiver . Dobson would not go up and fight for the ball like Mitchell does. Mitchell has more mental toughness. It looked as though his arm bended backwards in preseason but he was on the field a couple of weeks later. He also played through a knee injury during the playoffs. Dobson had the same nagging injuries but was unable to overcome and get on the field. Mitchell runs better routs and seems to have picked up the offense faster than Dobson.

I look for Mitchell to continue to grow and be a force next season.

There were a handful of plays in the SB where Brady seemed to be targeting Mitchell first, which is remarkable for a rookie, particularly one who missed significant time with injury. Next year they'll have an entirely different kind of training camp, where they can work on the more subtle communication and expectations of each other than Brady and Edelman/Amendola have had going. There's a much bigger chance his production goes up than it goes down.

4th round was good to the Pats this past year.

Best rookie WR since Edelman. I remember Edelman being the only competent receiving option in the 2009 playoffs and it took him another four years to really break out. It might be the same for Mitchell.

Don Kipines said:

Mitchell is a rangy, skinny kid whose best attribute is his hands. It's hard to imagine him being an impact player because he doesn't seem to have elite size, speed, or YAC ability. But not many rookies have earned Brady's trust that quickly. It'll be interesting to see what he can become.

Click to expand...

It's funny, Mitchell looks like he isn't doing much out there, like he's just loping along. But he tests faster than he looks, and doesn't seem to have trouble getting open. I think he has a bit of that same easy movement style that got Randy Moss accused of "dogging it." And those huge hands make catches look easier than they really are.

Around 600 yards, 7 TDs. I don't expect too much increase in production because even though Brady spreads the ball around, Edelman, Gronk (if he can come back healthy and functional) and Hogan are above him. Brady will focus on those three first. Mitchell will be better than this year but the production won't spike as much just because there are established receivers above him.

A different story if he beats out Hogan or Edelman gets hurt or Gronk isn't back 100%.

I think around 50 rec and 700 yards 5 TDs. I kind of feel like we will start the games next year always with a slant to Mitchell, like we did when we had LaFell in 2014.

I like him alot but probably a modest boost in #s, 700-800 yards next season. With gronk back malcolm is at best the 4th option and thats assuming floyd/bennett arent back or playing a bigger role in the passing game. Of course a big injury or 2 could change that.

I expect quite a bit out of him......if it wasn't for his injury, he would have done more

based on the last 6 games of the year, he's an 800 yard guy

he's got a high catch/tgt percentage given his yards per catch

he's the real deal

fnordcircle said:

60-80 receptions. 800+ yards. 12+ catches in SBLII.

Click to expand...

Pretty much what I'm expecting, he's going to break out and turn into their #1 in a couple of seasons.

TheBostonStraggler said:

The next Randy Moss without that little bit of emotional instability.

Click to expand...

I wish. Moss was a once in a generation player, I think he will be more of a Jerry Rice, but without cheating his entire career.

I feel a lot of Mitchell's production will depend on what happens with Floyd. Either way, he is a tough and talented player. I expect Mitchell to improve regardless. This may be off-topic, but what do you guys think of Lucien? I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do at some point.

I love the player, but am very afraid of injuries for him. I think bringing back Dola and Floyd is as much protection against injuries to him and Gronk.

One of the main reasons he went so late was the fear that his knees were papier mache, and he wouldn't be able to hold up. My hope from year one would be that he would be able to stay on the field all year. He was able to do that, and hopefully that health can continue. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some Gronk treatment to make sure he stays on the field as much as possible.

As far as production, he he as 60 catch 900 yrds potential as early as this coming season. Just depends on how they spread around the ball. Brady is going to be well set up if we can keep these guys on the field.

Ideally he is the #2 Optional after Edelman with Hogan/Gronk being home run hitters and White/Lewis pitching in to move the sticks.

A lot depends on the #2 TE and if we keep Floyd though.

I would guess 60 catches 800 yards just cause so much depth is on the team.

You need to feed Edelman/Gronk. Hogan will want some deep balls and White/Lewis is just too good a match up to ignore often for easy yards.

patchick said:

It's funny, Mitchell looks like he isn't doing much out there, like he's just loping along. But he tests faster than he looks, and doesn't seem to have trouble getting open. I think he has a bit of that same easy movement style that got Randy Moss accused of "dogging it." And those huge hands make catches look easier than they really are.

Click to expand...

I would like to see the Pats bring in Randy Moss to help with Mitchell's off season training. I think Mitchell has the "sneaky fast" speed that helped make Moss great.

Ivan said:

I wish. Moss was a once in a generation player, I think he will be more of a Jerry Rice, but without cheating his entire career.

Click to expand...

Well, OK, if we have to settle for that.
Ivan, be careful about all that compromising though.

patchick said:

It's funny, Mitchell looks like he isn't doing much out there, like he's just loping along. But he tests faster than he looks, and doesn't seem to have trouble getting open. I think he has a bit of that same easy movement style that got Randy Moss accused of "dogging it." And those huge hands make catches look easier than they really are.

Click to expand...

Yeah, he can't help it, but he just naturally looks kinda stiff and top-heavy.

NormZauchin said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Aaron Dobson had a pretty good rookie season and then regressed.

Click to expand...

Ugh,no. Dobson had one of the highest drop rates among all receivers his rookie year, #2 overall and Mitchell was #215 ( 1 drop out of 32).

Aaron Dobson Has 2nd Highest Drop Rate for WR's

There is no comparison between the two...