The Myth of Wes Welker, Return Man

dhamz · Mar 12, 2007

wdkantro2 said:
Have any of you doubters ever actually watched Welker play? He has more straight ahead explosiveness than probably any other return man in the league.

I've seen him play many times and that statement is just not true. There are a lot of return men with more straight ahead explosiveness than Welker.

I actually like Welker for the player he is. I think it is those who don't who feel the need to make him out to be in the class of Pacman Jones or Devin Hester as a returnman.

Ghost of Ben Dreith · Mar 12, 2007

Gon_Trevil said:
Except for that one time in the Denver playoff game...

Against Denver, hmmm...I guess that truly stamps him as a "Patriot type" player.

Brady to Brown · Mar 12, 2007

Return game or not. Belichick thought enough of Welker to double team him last year. I am happy that he is on our team :singing:

spacecrime · Mar 12, 2007

zippo59 said:
I think Hobbs should be our kick returner, and Welker should do punts. I think Faulk is so valueable to this offense that if we have another option at PR we should use it.

I don't like Faulk returning kicks because when he fumbles the ball on a kickoff, the other team is instantly in the red zone. I think Faulk's touching the ball should be limited to between the 40's, where a fumble doesn't always generate scores for the other team, or negate a scoring opportunity for us.

Crowpointer · Mar 12, 2007

PATRIOTS-80 said:
how about this thread on 01-31-07 before FA period?

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=324531&postcount=2

What happened?

Wow, good job. I think that is Game, Set, Match

ArmyPatsFan · Mar 12, 2007

Crowpointer said:
Wow, good job. I think that is Game, Set, Match

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH :rocker:

Seneschal2 · Mar 12, 2007

patsox23 said:
THIS THREAD is meant to explode a myth I've noticed is being constantly peddled around here - that Wes Welker is, in addition to being the ideal slot WR, a great "playmaker" and a top return man, both on KO's and punts. It simply isn't true.

patsox, there have been all sorts of opinions on Welker; some glowing -- and some not. It has been said that he's much better suited for the PR role than as a KR. That was his strength in college (8 return TDs). He then went on to SD and had 2 more return TDs -- then they cut him. And at Miami , he had another return TD -- but that was on a KO. It's quite obvious because of his proven ability to take one the distance, he's at the very least a threat. Granted, he's not the fastest, but he must have a keen sense of knowing how to return (blocking), rather than relying on the pure speed that others have.

The Pats have a slew of players who were returners in college. But once they were drafted, it was obvious that wasn't going to be a major part of their game. Welker is different. He IS a punt returner. No need to explain the value of field position, but it's obvious the idea was for him to be the primary PR in the hope he'd improve that important phase of the game, while he earns his way as a WR.

None of these newly acquired WRs even know the offense yet. I'm certainly not enamoured with anyone in particular -- until they've proven themselves.

Ring 6 · Mar 12, 2007

While you did point out that returns have to do with more than the returnman, you kind of did it in a dismissive way. (nice little player, measly 22 yards, etc)
But the fact is that return stats have as much, or more to do with who is blocking than who is returning.

You cannot judge Welkers return abilities by simply looking at #s. (by the way, I think the #s would bear out Miami has had weak return games for a long time)
I judge Welker as a return guy by watching him return.
Punts, IMO, are a better indication of the returner (as opposed to blockers) than KOs. Most KRs are stopped by more than one tackler, or a group of guys in the area cutting off the lanes. Punt returns are usually much more about how aggressively you get upfield, and making guys miss.

I know that when we kicked to the Fins, Welker worried me. not because of stats, but because (especially on punts) he was extrememly aggressive. He caught short punts on the run and returned at full speed. He ran first, picked his way second. A great example is tim dwight. I had high expectations for Dwight as a pr in 2005. MANY times the other team outkicked coverage, and I expected Dwight to get a big return. Instead he was tentative, not getting to full speed, but more concerned with the blocks developing. I think that his pr failures were the reason he was 1 and done here.

A punt returner is good, and dangerous when he runs at breakneck speed and worries only about the next guy in the way, rather than being 'patient' waiting for the blocking to set up. Why? Good pr blocking spreads players across the field and creates openings. There is no wedge, defenders do not arrive at the same area of the field at the same time.

Welker, from what I have seen is exactly the 'good' I described above.

In terms of KRs, the success we had last year was mostly catch the kick run full speed, make one cut. Welker seems to fit that. Speed and blocking was what made our KR good last year. I think Welker will throve as a returnman based on everything I sawin the handful of games I have seen him play.

Remix 6 · Mar 12, 2007

top returnmen dont avg 22 ypr

playmakers score more than 1 TD receiving

ideal slot..i guess

patsox23 · Mar 12, 2007

PatsFaninAZ said:
So, we're a team that was just a play away from the super bowl last year, and we just had one of the more eventful two off-season weeks that I can ever remember, and what's here today? Wes is likely an overrated returner and Maroney is not proven!

Classic! You'd never guess that most of us are also Red Sox fans, would you?

This has nothing to do with being negative about the Patriots. AS I SAID IN THE FIRST POST IN THIS THREAD, "I Like Wes Welker." This is about accuracy and fairly and honestly judging what this guy is and what the expectations should be. There is a world of difference there.

cstjohn17 · Mar 12, 2007

He always seemed to have big games against the Pats, at least we won't have to worry about him carving us up. Ellis Hobbs is still having nightmares about the first game in October.

Welker is also the only player to return over 40 punts a year in 2004, 2005 & 2006. He has touched the ball 394 times with 12 fumbles (1 of every 32 touches), although he has only lost 1. Having a consistent returner helps the blockers because they better understand the runners tendencies (ok I made that up but it sounded good). Plus he is 1/1 in FGs and can kickoff.

Faulk has touched the ball 1166 times (don't forget those 3 passes) and fumbled 23 times (1 out of 50 touches) or once every 4.6 games.

Ring 6 · Mar 12, 2007

Remix 6 said:
top returnmen dont avg 22 ypr

playmakers score more than 1 TD receiving

ideal slot..i guess

-Who do you consider a top returnman?
-I dont know what you mean by 'playmaker' but Welker caught a lot of passes in a weak offense with a horrible QB.
-If you think we got Jerry Rice, Welker will be very dissapointing. If you think we got a player who will makes plays to contribute to winning game, you will be happy.

patsox23 · Mar 12, 2007

Crowpointer said:
Wow, good job. I think that is Game, Set, Match

Yep, I saw that, too. The more I looked into Welker and read up on him, checked his stats, the less I liked the deal. So sue me for researching, realizing what many of you should now know, and waking up to reality.

BelichickFan · Mar 12, 2007

Offensively, we traded for Welker for a very specific role - to get open, quickly, on third down make the catch, get the first down - then get off the field. Some might say that we overpaid for that role, myself included, but when you look at all the freebies we're getting in FA plus having two #1s and extra comp picks, we had the capital to overspend to get a great role player.

Regarding returns, how the original post can say "keeping it real" then look at Welker's return average as if the return guy is solely responsible for the average is silly. That's as unreal as it gets.

Ring 6 · Mar 12, 2007

patsox23 said:
Yep, I saw that, too. The more I looked into Welker and read up on him, checked his stats, the less I liked the deal. So sue me for researching, realizing what many of you should now know, and waking up to reality.

I dont think that not agreeing with YOUR opinion, which by the way, conflicts with Bill Belechicks, is not 'realizing what I should know' or ignoring reality.
Last I checked reality wasnt based on patsox23's opinion.

I dont know if you intended it that way, but this post was one of the most arrogant I have read in ages.

Just understand, what you said is:

You read about a player, checked his stats, and formed an opinion.
And believe that anyone who disagrees with your opinion 'doesnt know what they should' and is not dealing with reality.

I based my opinion on what I have seen with my eyes. That, to me has a hell of a lot more to do with reality than reading what other people think (not exactly sure what you read, or who wrote it that has a negative opinion that you place more value on than BBs opinion) and looking blindly at statistics.

Krazy Koz · Mar 12, 2007

AndyJohnson said:
I dont think that not agreeing with YOUR opinion, which by the way, conflicts with Bill Belechicks, is not 'realizing what I should know' or ignoring reality.
Last I checked reality wasnt based on patsox23's opinion.

I dont know if you intended it that way, but this post was one of the most arrogant I have read in ages.

Just understand, what you said is:

You read about a player, checked his stats, and formed an opinion.
And believe that anyone who disagrees with your opinion 'doesnt know what they should' and is not dealing with reality.

I based my opinion on what I have seen with my eyes. That, to me has a hell of a lot more to do with reality than reading what other people think (not exactly sure what you read, or who wrote it that has a negative opinion that you place more value on than BBs opinion) and looking blindly at statistics.

I read this on PFT the other day and it stood out to me and seems to apply to this situation.

The reality that perception is. Reality.

Patsox seems to want to cool down the talk of Wes Welker as a stud, say we've given up too much for just an average slot WR/PR/KR and a lot of others have rallied the troops to back Welker.

Basically what it boils down to is that neither side knows what is going to happen with Welker. He has some pretty good stats with an average to below average team and has shown some gleaming rays of light in the past. IMO I believe the potential is high with Welker here. He seems like a disciplined and versatile player with a good attitude and when you pair that with a great team and a great head coach, I for one, love the possibilities. That is why I believe the love fest for Welker is going on here.

Not to mention the fact we take away a deadly weapon from a rival team in our division, fill a void, and make a move with picks when we had an excess of them. In my mind, there is no better than BB and Pioli.

PATRIOTS-80 · Mar 12, 2007

patsox23 said:
Yep, I saw that, too. The more I looked into Welker and read up on him, checked his stats, the less I liked the deal. So sue me for researching, realizing what many of you should now know, and waking up to reality.

No. You saw reality with your eyes (eyeball test), and then let some stupid stat get in the way of your better judgment. So no, that stat is not reality. I pointed out the variance of Faulk's avg. (4 yards) from 04 to 06. The PR's avg is deceiving because it is dependent on the ST units.

DaBruinz · Mar 12, 2007

patsox23 said:
Interesting points. Thanks for weighing in. I especially take to the "protect Faulk" stuff and the Welker and ball-security angle. HOWEVER, that doesn't change the fact that many here seem to assume Welker IS something he has yet to actually be.

As others pointed out, you can't look at this in a vacuum. There are 10 other players on the field besides the return man. Patriots-80 was being NICE when he said that the Dolphins units were suspect. They flat out were terrible. Both on their kick return blocking and punt return blocking. And the punt return blocking is somewhat proven by the league leading 29 fair-catches that were made.

PATRIOTS-80 · Mar 12, 2007

DaBruinz said:
As others pointed out, you can't look at this in a vacuum. There are 10 other players on the field besides the return man. Patriots-80 was being NICE when he said that the Dolphins units were suspect. They flat out were terrible. Both on their kick return blocking and punt return blocking. And the punt return blocking is somewhat proven by the league leading 29 fair-catches that were made.

that's cuz I'm a nice guy.

LOL

RayClay · Mar 13, 2007

dhamz said:
I also don't see the need to exaggerate Welker in the return game. He's just not a game breaker on returns.

Welker is a very good slot WR who is also a solid KR and PR who doesn't fumble. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

He holds the NCAA record for return yards and 8 punt returns for touchdowns.

Sounds like a possible game breaker to me. Texas Tech plays in the big 12 with Texas and Nebraska, among others.

8 punt return TDs!

I can't believe I'm the only one who knows this.

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