Interesting post on SD's pass rush

This post was found on footballoutsiders' scramble for the ball thread. (#50)

Apologies in advance for using conventional stats (still getting my feet wet with FO stats). Many examples are cited in this discussion of easy games or easy matchups that might have inflated a team’s ranking. I was looking at SD, BALT, and NE (my opinion of the true contenders) to determine how legit certain stats were. Here are a few things I found:

Games vs. defenses allowing less than 200 yards passing/game:
McNair = 4
Rivers = 5
Brady = 7

Total sacks by defense:
SD 61, BAL 60, NE 44

Games vs. teams allowing 40+ sacks:
SD = 9, BAL = 8, NE 7

Games vs. teams allowing 30 or fewer sacks:
SD = 1, BAL = 3, NE = 5

Click to expand...

I realize that it touches upon something that many have discussed, but I found it to be more concise than anything I have read here on the issue. I am sure that SD's pass rush is legit and NE will have to work very hard to stop it, but it is interesting that they faced the most sack friendly schedule by far.

Oswlek said:

This post was found on footballoutsiders' scramble for the ball thread. (#50)



I realize that it touches upon something that many have discussed, but I found it to be more concise than anything I have read here on the issue. I am sure that SD's pass rush is legit and NE will have to work very hard to stop it, but it is interesting that they faced the most sack friendly schedule by far.

Click to expand...

Very interesting stats. Especially when you consider that the Patriots are one of the teams that their opponents count in their positive count. I guess that certainly gives some credence to the 'schedule vs schedule' debate, in the Pats favor as far as who is more tested.

Oswlek said:

This post was found on footballoutsiders' scramble for the ball thread. (#50)



I realize that it touches upon something that many have discussed, but I found it to be more concise than anything I have read here on the issue. I am sure that SD's pass rush is legit and NE will have to work very hard to stop it, but it is interesting that they faced the most sack friendly schedule by far.

Click to expand...

Just throw that sh!t out because they weren't healthy and who you play or how you played this season doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that the Chargers are healthy this SUNDAY and Brady's record vs the AFC West sucks!!

Get with it - you damn homer!!!!

Oh...thanks for the stats!

mgcolby said:

Just throw that sh!t out because they weren't healthy and who you play or how you played this season doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that the Chargers are healthy this SUNDAY and Brady's record vs the AFC West!!

Get with it - you damn homer!!!!

Click to expand...

healthy? the pats haven't been healthy since 04

The Dude said:

healthy? the pats haven't been healthy since 04

Click to expand...

I know.

The Dude said:

healthy? the pats haven't been healthy since 04

Click to expand...

The SD fans have replaced his brains.

Brownfan80 said:

The SD fans have replaced his brains.

Click to expand...

Well why wait for them to show up and ruin a thread. We might as well ruin our own.

I can't remember this many idiots showing up here. Maybe my memory is shot but so far these guys have been the worse I have seen.

Oswlek said:

This post was found on footballoutsiders' scramble for the ball thread. (#50)



I realize that it touches upon something that many have discussed, but I found it to be more concise than anything I have read here on the issue. I am sure that SD's pass rush is legit and NE will have to work very hard to stop it, but it is interesting that they faced the most sack friendly schedule by far.

Click to expand...

They had 14 sacks in the two Oakland games alone. That pads their sack #s quite a bit. As you said, I am sure they have a good pass rush, but let's not put a bust of it in Canton just yet.

The Dude said:

healthy? the pats haven't been healthy since 04

Click to expand...

They were healthy in 04? Not exactly. I think they set the record for most games missed by starters by a Super Bowl winner.

PromisedLand said:

They had 14 sacks in the two Oakland games alone. That pads their sack #s quite a bit. As you said, I am sure they have a good pass rush, but let's not put a bust of it in Canton just yet.

Click to expand...

What did the Wolf say in Pulp Fiction? Let's not start sucking their c*cks just yet?

That is beautiful.

Oswlek said:

What did the Wolf say in Pulp Fiction? Let's not start sucking their c*cks just yet?

Click to expand...

I have said it, brought stats into prove it...that defense isn't that good! They are overhyped because they have good individual stats, but there team stats are average!

Last year the Colts defense was overrated as well, the offense gave them a big lead early, which took away the opponents running game. The defense knew the other team was going to pass the ball and they just Teed off on it. This year they didn't jump out to too many big leads and their weakness (one that was there last year as well) was exposed.

Don't get me wrong the SD defense has more talent than the Colts d, but the hype they receive in relation to their actual "TEAM" stats is not warranted.

On the other hand the Patriots play great "TEAM" defense which causes individual stats to suffer therefore they don't receive the hype. Is it ironic that the player that is talked about the most in the national media is Asante? Who is honestly one of our biggest liabilities. For every INT he has I can name a big play made against him. Is there any doubt that if Seymour played in a 4-3 he wouldn't be at the top of the league in sacks every year, Warren? What the rest of the league (especially the fans) and most of the media don't understand is the Patriots check the individualism at the door. They have a team ego not a personal ego!

Same guy, different focus:

Another interesting trend I found is that Brady and McNair started the season slow (44% and 55% completions, respectively, in 1st 4 games). Brady was breaking in all new WRs and McNair was learning a new offense. Rivers started out 70 for 105.

In the past 4 games, here are their numbers:
Brady 81/120 (66%) 6 TDs, 0 INTs
McNair 91/136 (65%) 5 TDs, 3 INTs
Rivers 54/100 (54%) 5 TDs, 4 INTs

Any theories for the drop off in production by Rivers?

Passing plays of 20+ yards:
NE = 55 (in 527 pass attempts)
SD = 46 (in 466 pass attempts)
BAL = 44 (in 524 pass attepts)

I found it surprising that Baltimore lags badly in number of big yardage pass plays (and in percentage of big plays to pass attempts). It makes me wonder if they’d be able to overcome a 10-point lead if Indy put a few successful drives together. My view of NE was that they didn’t have any “big play” receivers; that seems incorrect.

Click to expand...

I suppose that I could have posted this in Pony's thread, but whatever.

Oswlek said:

Same guy, different focus:



I suppose that I could have posted this in Pony's thread, but whatever.

Click to expand...

I said this in another thread - A Rookie or a First time starter that have talent, usually come out of the gate strong. As the weeks go by they fizzle out a bit because the more they play the more opportunities a DC gets to figure out his weaknesses. Rivers is no different. BB has an entire seasons worth of film to figure out Rivers weaknesses, my money says he does.

mgcolby said:

I said this in another thread - A Rookie or a First time starter that have talent, usually come out of the gate strong. As the weeks go by they fizzle out a bit because the more they play the more opportunities a DC gets to figure out his weaknesses. Rivers is no different. BB has an entire seasons worth of film to figure out Rivers weaknesses, my money says he does.

Click to expand...

This has similarities to Pittsburgh and Ben two years ago.....Take away their number one weapon, the run and make the rook beat you.

The Dude said:

healthy? the pats haven't been healthy since 04

Click to expand...

Try 2002.

2004 was the year we had to put Troy in at DB.

2003 the Pats set the record for games missed by starters for a SB Champion, more the doubling the previous record holder.