Gunner gunning for the Edelman role

[Tony2046]

To follow up on this, this video makes the argument that kickoffs in general are just terrible. I'm not advocating for the solution he posits at the end, but the video basically shows that the only guy in recent history who consistently returns kicks without just running a straight line up the sideline has been Cordarelle Patterson.

(Also, this guy and series does some fun stuff... just ignore the 80's graphics and Kenny G music).

That was a good listen. Thanks.

Curious about his conclusion that average starting position doesn't matter that much because over the years I've always heard that it does.

Couldn't find a great link but this one basically discusses the argument I'm familiar with.

Does field position really matter?

See if this makes sense to you...if, on average, you start your offensive drives closer to the goal line than your opponent, then you should have an easier time scoring versus your opponent who starts further away. When you stop to think, it makes perfect sense. If the Buckeyes have to rumble...

www.elevenwarriors.com

"There has been a decent amount of analytics performed on football data and field position. In my opinion, all of the work seems to come up with just about the same conclusion...for every 10 yards of field position, you are 10% more likely to score points on that drive (TD or FG.)"

On the other hand I don't mind his alternative solution.

 

[Ivan]

We have Meyers and Bourne

I could be wrong but I don’t see either the f them as the same kind of slot receiver Welker and Edelman were. Both had elite quickness and change of direction skills, and I’m not sure Meyers or Bourne have that. Gunner has that, the questions will be his route running and hands, and I won’t be at all surprised if he develops both to a really high level. If he becomes the next great slot we will be very very fortunate.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I could be wrong but I don’t see either the f them as the same kind of slot receiver Welker and Edelman were.

Totally agree. Different players. Bigger players. Bigger catch radius.

Both had elite quickness and change of direction skills, and I’m not sure Meyers or Bourne have that.

They don't.

Gunner has that, the questions will be his route running and hands, and I won’t be at all surprised if he develops both to a really high level. If he becomes the next great slot we will be very very fortunate.

I call them slot receivers because they can get open (or make a big target) within 10yds of the LoS inside the hashes.

 

[50-yard-line]

I think he will. We need a #4 WR. Gunner or Tre will overtake Harry.

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Have to believe Gunner has an inside track. He will be on the 53, almost certainly, as the PR guy, but if he can also fill that WR4 role, that saves a roster spot.

He certainly won't lose out for lack of effort.

 

[Simpelton]

I could see them springing Gunner for a few deep throws just to see if chemistry can be generated that way. He has the speed for it, and the hands aren't terrible. Could be a poor man's TY Hilton

 

[Ivan]

Totally agree. Different players. Bigger players. Bigger catch radius.

They don't.

I call them slot receivers because they can get open (or make a big target) within 10yds of the LoS inside the hashes.

Like Troy Brown, Welker, and Edelman, Gunner has that punt returner open field sensibility that allows him to go the distance on any missed tackles, and it’s why I want him to win that job. He’s a threat, and they need that in their offense.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

That was a good listen. Thanks.

Curious about his conclusion that average starting position doesn't matter that much because over the years I've always heard that it does.

Couldn't find a great link but this one basically discusses the argument I'm familiar with.

Does field position really matter?

See if this makes sense to you...if, on average, you start your offensive drives closer to the goal line than your opponent, then you should have an easier time scoring versus your opponent who starts further away. When you stop to think, it makes perfect sense. If the Buckeyes have to rumble...

www.elevenwarriors.com

"There has been a decent amount of analytics performed on football data and field position. In my opinion, all of the work seems to come up with just about the same conclusion...for every 10 yards of field position, you are 10% more likely to score points on that drive (TD or FG.)"

In the other hand I don't mind his alternative solution.

In a perfect world, this breakdown of field position be a great thread by itself. There are a whole bunch of football beliefs/myths that I’m curious about. I think there’s a ton of confirmation bias out there, as I’ve noted that oddsmakers usually treat these as nothing burgers.

• The one you posted earlier about days of rest in between games interests me.
• We had gotten into, before the NFCCG, the idea that non-extreme weather is vastly overrated (the idea that the Packers are better in the cold…can also be explained historically by them having HFA and presumably the better team based in having the higher seed.)
• Similarly, we all thought the Patriots used to have an advantage with that beat up field, but their winning pct remained in tact when they switched to that new grass.
• Playing tough opponents back to back or three in a row on the road…is it actually harder, or is it just that each individual game itself is a higher probability of losing?
• Belichick being better against an opponent second time around doesn’t really check out.

That many players and coaches believe this stuff is true…doesn’t make it true either. More confirmation bias in a lot of cases.

 

[mgteich]

I think he will. We need a #4 WR. Gunner or Tre will overtake Harry.

.

Perhaps the 6th non-RB receiver 2 TE, and 3 WR's will be relevant this year.

 

[Tony2046]

In a perfect world, this breakdown of field position be a great thread by itself. There are a whole bunch of football beliefs/myths that I’m curious about. I think there’s a ton of confirmation bias out there, as I’ve noted that oddsmakers usually treat these as nothing burgers.

• The one you posted earlier about days of rest in between games interests me.
• We had gotten into, before the NFCCG, the idea that non-extreme weather is vastly overrated (the idea that the Packers are better in the cold…can also be explained historically by them having HFA and presumably the better team based in having the higher seed.)
• Similarly, we all thought the Patriots used to have an advantage with that beat up field, but their winning pct remained in tact when they switched to that new grass.
• Playing tough opponents back to back or three in a row on the road…is it actually harder, or is it just that each individual game itself is a higher probability of losing?
• Belichick being better against an opponent second time around doesn’t really check out.

That many players and coaches believe this stuff is true…doesn’t make it true either. More confirmation bias in a lot of cases.

That would be a great thread.

Hopefully we can utilize the term widgets during the discussion.

Seriously though, now that I'm pretty much finished with my part of a new erp implimintation I might have time to contribute a bit more than I have in the past.

 

[Tony2046]

@pctronics0072

Please read the following article.

Be Paranoid, Android: Here Come The Humans

The World Economic Forum predicts automation will result in a net increase of 58 million jobs.

www.forbes.com

There are many articles with various conclusions but most support what I have experienced over the last twenty five years which is that automation doesn't replace jobs. And I'd expand on that by saying that automation saves jobs that would be otherwise lost to companies that shutdown because of a lack of modernization.

If you have a different perspective then I'd like to hear it.

 

[captain stone]

Oh man. That movie is due for a rewatch

Yeah, the first half at least....never gets old!

About a dozen - 15 years before my time, thankfully...

Helluva movie...R Lee Ermey was so convincing and hilarious off-screen as Senior DI Hartman that Kubrick gave him the part and re-assigned the other dude to the role of the Door Gunner...

 

[captain stone]

Exactly. A Welker/DA/JE11 type receiver is not a gotta-have-one in this offense right now.

Yep...We need another Outside receiver to complement Agholor....like Damiere Byrd...

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Hard to say. Edelman didn't really do it till year 3 or 4. Love the guy but it's tough to say it'll never happen again.

.

Yeah, who knows. Edelman did flash in 2009 in the playoff game against Baltimore though. If gunner gets to his level that's good for the team. I'm just leary he'll be comparable to the WR that had 140 yards in the Super Bowl and won MVP. Edelman was on another level, and tough as a brick ****house. Interesting to see how gunner progresses.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots' Gunner Olszewski Had One Of Best Seasons Ever By Punt Returner - NESN.com

Since the 1970 merger, just one qualified NFL returner has averaged more yards per punt return than Gunner Olszewski did this season.

nesn.com

Quick, who holds the New England Patriots’ single-season franchise record for punt-return average?​

​

It’s not Julian Edelman. It’s not Wes Welker. It’s not Troy Brown, Dave Meggett or Irving Fryar.​

​

Olszewski averaged 17.3 yards per punt return on 20 attempts this season, breaking Edelman’s previous franchise record of 15.5, set in 2012.​

​

And that wasn’t all.​

​

Olszewski, whose hyper-aggressive returning style borders on hazardous, also led the NFL in punt return yards (346) and led all qualified returners in punt return average.​

​

The undrafted second-year pro gained 12 or more yards on 11 of his 20 returns.​

​

In historical context, Olszewski’s season looks even more remarkable.​

​

Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, just one player has returned 20-plus punts in a season and averaged more than 17.3 yards per return: Buffalo’s Leodis McKelvin, who posted an 18.7-yard average on 23 attempts in 2012. Devin Hester ranks third at 17.1 (33 returns).​

 

[Mack Herron]

Yeah, who knows. Edelman did flash in 2009 in the playoff game against Baltimore though. If gunner gets to his level that's good for the team. I'm just leary he'll be comparable to the WR that had 140 yards in the Super Bowl and won MVP. Edelman was on another level, and tough as a brick ****house. Interesting to see how gunner progresses.

Edelman had 7 receptions in his second year and 4 the next. Learning Pats passing game takes time, especially if you’re learning a new position. Still early for Gunner.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

According to Doug Kyed, Olszewski was looking like the second-best receiver in TC. Then he got injured, and they more or less gave up on using him at WR.



While not absolutely safe, I'd put his overall contributions on STs similar to Edelman's (remember: after one of his Chargers TDs, he made the tackle on the ensuing kickoff). Given that, I'd say he's got better than a 50-50 chance.

 

[Sicilian]

That was a good listen. Thanks.

Curious about his conclusion that average starting position doesn't matter that much because over the years I've always heard that it does.

Couldn't find a great link but this one basically discusses the argument I'm familiar with.

Does field position really matter?

See if this makes sense to you...if, on average, you start your offensive drives closer to the goal line than your opponent, then you should have an easier time scoring versus your opponent who starts further away. When you stop to think, it makes perfect sense. If the Buckeyes have to rumble...

www.elevenwarriors.com

"There has been a decent amount of analytics performed on football data and field position. In my opinion, all of the work seems to come up with just about the same conclusion...for every 10 yards of field position, you are 10% more likely to score points on that drive (TD or FG.)"

On the other hand I don't mind his alternative solution.

Yeah, I think he looks at the numbers of average points per drive and thinks they're negligible because they're all "around" 2. But with sample sizes that large, a difference of 1.9 vs 2.1 is actually pretty significant I think. His stronger points were about how infrequently good returns actually happen, and how the only exciting thing about most KR touchdowns is the fact they scored 6 points. The actual on field play is pretty vanilla from a scheme perspective.

Mostly I wanted to link it though because it supports the idea that there really aren't any GREAT kickoff returners in the NFL. So Gunner excelling on punts but not KR is kind of the norm.

 

[stcjones]

Let's be real. Absent injuries,, Gunner has little chance of having a significant role in the offense, as is the case this year for any # 4WR in an offense that emphasizes the run and has at least 7 targets before him.

Yeah pulling for Gunner but he hasn’t proven much as WR.....not bad ..PR especially last year. But saying he’s the next Edelman....with putting both bodies of work on table ..is insulting. Edelman should be HOF....Gunner has yet to prove himself...Apple meet orange!

 

[Triumph]

Making chicken salad from chicken 5hit.

If this guy was worth a flip don't you surmise that it would obvious by now?

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Totally agree. Different players. Bigger players. Bigger catch radius.

They don't.

I call them slot receivers because they can get open (or make a big target) within 10yds of the LoS inside the hashes.

How are Wes Welker and JE bigger players?

Wes Welker 5'9" 185 pounds
Julian Edelman 5'10 195 pounds
Gunner O 6'0 190 pounds