sanu released

[Bill Lee]

Malcom Brown was so lousy a pick that he played in 60 games over four years in NE, starting in 51 of them (85%). Then he got signed by a very good New Orleans team and in 2019 promptly started 16 out of 16 games.

But the guy is mediocre. Both Belichick and Payton have misjudged his ability so badly they started him 88% of the time on two of the league’s best teams.

If you draft a guy in his spot in the draft and he plays five years in the league, starting on very good defenses in 67 out of 76 games played, you’ve made a solid draft pick.

In the context of spoiled Patriots fandom, "solid" really means "stud", because having a stud at every position is what is expected.

 

[Bill Lee]

Since this thread is largely about team building, I thought this series of tweets was informative:






So :

• Draft does play a strong role in NE team building (two draft picks for every FA).
• The majority of players who stuck were drafted in the 3rd round
• We have as many fourth or fifth rounders make the team as first.
• We have twice as many UDFA on the team as first rounders (!)
• We think we have a young team after TB12 and Gronk left, but we're still the 6th oldest team!
• Players like Slater and the McCourty twins are keeping our average age pretty high league wide.

We know BB likes to trade down a lot, so I'm not sure what is cause and what is effect.

Also the team is in transition this season so I'm not sure we can say this is the long term trend.

And it'd be better to talk about the game 1 roster since things can change a lot over the next few days.

All tweets came from Miguel's page, btw.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

What really jumps out is the lack of success in the second round. That has hurt us the most!

 

[Bill Lee]

What really jumps out is the lack of success in the second round. That has hurt us the most!

I'm not sure you can reach that conclusion without accounting for trading down.

 

[203Pat]

Sometimes it feels like Bill's kids are posting here.

 

[Bruins29]

Sometimes it feels like Bill's kids are posting here.

You go get those homers. You are doing a great job

 

[203Pat]

You go get those homers. You are doing a great job

This is gonna be your thing huh?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I agree. I love @BaconGrundleCandy and @Wozzy as posters. Great stuff from both. Not sure why the meaning of "crapshoot" is important. Their posts are full of valuable info and insights, and arguing over a word in empty.

I really don't want to re-argue this. At least not in this thread.
I'm not so much concerned about the word "crapshoot" as I am about judging-setting up some parameters to look at the draft.

Its such an important part of football it deserves attention, praise, criticism etc ... Young, cheap, talent that buys into you're system is enormous benefit / factor.

 

[captain stone]

Since this thread is largely about team building, I thought this series of tweets was informative:

I don't think this particular tweet helps make whatever point you're trying to make...

 

[Pape]

Bill thought Jonathan Baldwin was as good as, if not better than, Julio Jones. Take that for what it's worth as an answer.


Falcons' Julio Jones gamble (opposed by Bill Belichick) paid off

Has that gamble paid off? not so sure about that

Made 1 super bowl...
Hes got lots of yards...
they have two winning seasons
they have one 8-8 season
they have four >.500 seasons...

Tell me how that "gamble" paid off. The Falcons have had tens of thousands of sth default on the PSLs & they have terrible attendance ... they dont win games... they have a terrible defense... jones/ryan combo isn't putting fannies in the seats... but hey Julio has 12000+ yards receiving

Not sure I'm really seeing how this has paid off for them...

 

[ivanvamp]

Bill thought Jonathan Baldwin was as good as, if not better than, Julio Jones. Take that for what it's worth as an answer.


Falcons' Julio Jones gamble (opposed by Bill Belichick) paid off

Love that article. Came out two days before New England beat Atlanta in the SB. Since that article was written:

NE: 36-12 regular season, 6-2 playoffs, 2 AFC championships, 2 SB titles
Atl: 24-24 regular season, 0-2 playoffs

 

[luuked]

Love that article. Came out two days before New England beat Atlanta in the SB. Since that article was written:

NE: 36-12 regular season, 6-2 playoffs, 2 AFC championships, 2 SB titles
Atl: 24-24 regular season, 0-2 playoffs

Given what Belichick said to Holly it is clear that he completely misevaluated Julio's abilities:

He often says that the primary job of a receiver is to simply get open and catch the ball, and he doesn't like what he sees from Jones in either department. He thinks the receiver struggles to get open on intermediate routes, doesn't play as fast as his superb timed speed suggests, and too often displays inconsistent hands.

I'd guess that doesn't sound like Jones to anyone. But then again I am sure there are similar -- in retrospect almost comical -- evaluations from all around the league about e.g. Gronk.

That being said ultimately the value proposition argument BB had -- even if he ended up with the wrong example in Jonathan Baldwin -- still rings true to me. Will Jones make such a gigantic difference that he will offset all the assets necessary to trade up for him ? Or would a receiver at the end of the first round still give you 75% of Jones while at the same time you can potentially improve the team at various other spots as well.

Lets keep in mind they traded #27, #59, and #124 in 2011 as well as #22 and #118 a year later. How often were they held back by their OL (until they traded for Mack) ?

This makes it a lot more nuanced and interesting discussion than "lol BB wanted Jonathan Baldwin over Julio Jones". It goes back to different team building philosophies (top-heavy vs. deep) and how random injuries (or non football incidents) can affect those teams entirely different.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yeah my point was simply this: Of course Julio Jones has turned out to be a ridiculously great wide receiver. Honestly, one of the best I've ever seen from an ability standpoint, and his production has been tremendous. BB may have evaluated him wrong, but I think he got the overall evaluation right - that even an all-time great WR doesn't move the needle that much.

The only WR I've ever seen move a team's needle that much was Randy Moss in 2007 for the Patriots. He was absolutely sick, but then again, that team had absolute peak Tom Brady, a stud OL, a great defense, and Wes Welker, who was also an all-pro caliber player too. And yes obviously they went 16-0 and went to the SB but.....ugh.....lost.

So I don't think BB would trade his situation for Atlanta's. He'd rather have his success without Jones than have Atlanta's success with Jones.

 

[Vindicate]

Yeah my point was simply this: Of course Julio Jones has turned out to be a ridiculously great wide receiver. Honestly, one of the best I've ever seen from an ability standpoint, and his production has been tremendous. BB may have evaluated him wrong, but I think he got the overall evaluation right - that even an all-time great WR doesn't move the needle that much.

The only WR I've ever seen move a team's needle that much was Randy Moss in 2007 for the Patriots. He was absolutely sick, but then again, that team had absolute peak Tom Brady, a stud OL, a great defense, and Wes Welker, who was also an all-pro caliber player too. And yes obviously they went 16-0 and went to the SB but.....ugh.....lost.

So I don't think BB would trade his situation for Atlanta's. He'd rather have his success without Jones than have Atlanta's success with Jones.

That O Line was absurd. Gave Brady so much time to let those Moss routes develop.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Malcolm Brown wasn’t bad. And imo was a decent end of R1 pick for us. Idk maybe people had the expectations that he would be close to the disrupter in the middle that big Vince was and when that wasn’t the case it caused some people to sour on him as a player?

 

[PatsBoy12]

Malcolm Brown wasn’t bad. And imo was a decent end of R1 pick for us. Idk maybe people had the expectations that he would be close to the disrupter in the middle that big Vince was and when that wasn’t the case it caused some people to sour on him as a player?

Mostly this. He was solid during his first season and then just seemed to underwhelm more as the seasons went on, culminating in a really forgettable final season with the club that saw him routinely getting pushed back into the second, and s ok sometimes third, levels of the D. Whatever. Could've been worse...

 

[captain stone]

Given what Belichick said to Holly it is clear that he completely misevaluated Julio's abilities:


I'd guess that doesn't sound like Jones to anyone. But then again I am sure there are similar -- in retrospect almost comical -- evaluations from all around the league about e.g. Gronk.

That being said ultimately the value proposition argument BB had -- even if he ended up with the wrong example in Jonathan Baldwin -- still rings true to me. Will Jones make such a gigantic difference that he will offset all the assets necessary to trade up for him ? Or would a receiver at the end of the first round still give you 75% of Jones while at the same time you can potentially improve the team at various other spots as well.

Lets keep in mind they traded #27, #59, and #124 in 2011 as well as #22 and #118 a year later. How often were they held back by their OL (until they traded for Mack) ?

This makes it a lot more nuanced and interesting discussion than "lol BB wanted Jonathan Baldwin over Julio Jones". It goes back to different team building philosophies (top-heavy vs. deep) and how random injuries (or non football incidents) can affect those teams entirely different.

Yeah I don't believe that Bill would've chosen Baldwin ahead of Jones from the same draft position (at least I hope not)...The question if the trade-up for Jones was all worth it is indeed very, very debatable...

 

[captain stone]

That O Line was absurd. Gave Brady so much time to let those Moss routes develop.

Except when it actually mattered...and Stephen Neal's departure (early 2nd quarter?) was a Killer...That made their Right side complete garbage for the rest of the game...

 

[Uptown]

Mostly this. He was solid during his first season and then just seemed to underwhelm more as the seasons went on, culminating in a really forgettable final season with the club that saw him routinely getting pushed back into the second, and s ok sometimes third, levels of the D. Whatever. Could've been worse...

Fair.

 

[captain stone]

Malcolm Brown wasn’t bad. And imo was a decent end of R1 pick for us. Idk maybe people had the expectations that he would be close to the disrupter in the middle that big Vince was and when that wasn’t the case it caused some people to sour on him as a player?

Yeah I have no problem with that pick either...I would've done the very same thing, or perhaps taken the Joisey Vagiants' offer of #s 40, 108 & 245 for #32, which reportedly had also been offered to NE...