Patriots 2018 Coaching Staff News and Opinions (edit)

[Ivan]

They should but this defense has a few dead wood to cut/trim off.

David Harris
Roberts
Richards
Alan Branch
Jean Francois
Harrison(How many tackles did he miss in that game)
Rowe?(Not sure about him. The way the Eagles exposed him, I don't think he can recover.
I guess a QB in this draft and then all D. Need to hit big. The draft penalties have started to take their toll.

I agree with most of this but Harrison is done imo. He helped set the edge for a few weeks but I wouldn’t want him around for a full season, especially since more athleticism on the edge is what they need most defensively. I also think that Roberts would work well as a role player, but he’s not a full time MLB, that was only put upon him because Hightower went down and Harris was a bust.

There are going to be many changes in this defense, but they also have a really good group of young players they can develop into the core of their future defense. Adam Butler, Eric Lee, Marquise Flowers, Derek Rivers, Vincent Valentine, and Jonathan Jones, are all good prospects, how far they can go will depend upon the coaching they get and how hard they work, but the talent is there. Cyrus Jones also has the talent but to date he’s busted, so he’s got a lot of proving to do before he can really be considered a good prospect again.

 

[maineman209]

I'd love to see a new defense put in and add some unpredictability and aggressiveness. That probably won't happen though. Belichick has absolute control (which obviously for the most part works) and the frustrating bend don't break will likely not change.

Anyone else think the Pats defense actually underachieved? I think they had the personnel to be above average despite not having as much talent in the front seven as they did in the secondary.

I just think one factor is teams know for the most part what to expect from a Belichick defensive game plan and they need something different.

The Pats 2016 defense finished first in the league in fewest points allowed (250).

Eight players from the front seven on that defense who had, collectively, 48 years of significant NFL experience, and who contributed about 4,000 snaps, were missing from the 2017 defense due to FA, retirement or from IR-worthy injury for all or a significant part of the 2017 season.

They were essentially replaced by players with a grand total of 17 years of NFL experience (significant or not), including a journeyman reserve DE/DT, three former special-teamers with minor defensive experience, two rookies and a perennial practice-squadder with zero defensive snaps in his career - plus a smattering of snaps (<300 total) from a 31-year-old journeyman reserve DT, a 33-year-old LB and a 39-year-old OLB/DE.

Moreover, not even counting the loss of Hightower, four key holdover players from the 2016 front-7 lost an average of 3 games each to injury. Additionally, the secondary lost one of its key 2016 contributors to FA, and lost two of its key 2017 contributors to injury for 7 and 3 games respectively.

In spite of all that, after a horrible first four games (on a pace to allow over 500 points), the Pats 2017 defense finished 5th in the league in points allowed (296).

So, yeah, let's discuss how the 2017 defense underachieved.

++++++++

Multiplicity, versatility, situational adaptability, ambiguous intent, unpredictability and year-to-year evolution in response to offensive trends have all been hallmarks of BB's defenses. Over the past 17 seasons, those defenses have finished in the Top-10 in fewest points allowed 14 times, and in the Top-5 seven times.

And BB has managed to accomplish all that with a total of 10 1st-round draft picks on defense...
... 2 from the Top-10, one more from the Top-15, and the other seven coming out of the 26th spot on average.

But, yeah, let's discuss how BB's defensive approach needs to change.

 

[Ivan]

The Pats 2016 defense finished first in the league in fewest points allowed (250).

Eight players from the front seven on that defense who had, collectively, 48 years of significant NFL experience, and who contributed about 4,000 snaps, were missing from the 2017 defense due to FA, retirement or from IR-worthy injury for all or a significant part of the 2017 season.

They were essentially replaced by players with a grand total of 17 years of NFL experience (significant or not), including a journeyman reserve DE/DT, three former special-teamers with minor defensive experience, two rookies and a perennial practice-squadder with zero defensive snaps in his career - plus a smattering of snaps (<300 total) from a 31-year-old journeyman reserve DT, a 33-year-old LB and a 39-year-old OLB/DE.

Moreover, not even counting the loss of Hightower, four key holdover players from the 2016 front-7 lost an average of 3 games each to injury. Additionally, the secondary lost one of its key 2016 contributors to FA, and lost two of its key 2017 contributors to injury for 7 and 3 games respectively.

In spite of all that, after a horrible first four games (on a pace to allow over 500 points), the Pats 2017 defense finished 5th in the league in points allowed (296).

So, yeah, let's discuss how the 2017 defense underachieved.

++++++++

Multiplicity, versatility, situational adaptability, ambiguous intent, unpredictability and year-to-year evolution in response to offensive trends have all been hallmarks of BB's defenses. Over the past 17 seasons, those defenses have finished in the Top-10 in fewest points allowed 14 times, and in the Top-5 seven times.

And BB has managed to accomplish all that with a total of 10 1st-round draft picks on defense...
... 2 from the Top-10, one more from the Top-15, and the other seven coming out of the 26th spot on average.

But, yeah, let's discuss how BB's defensive approach needs to change.

Once again, great post. I would, however, like to see them become more aggressive about getting to the passer.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats 2016 defense finished first in the league in fewest points allowed (250).

Eight players from the front seven on that defense who had, collectively, 48 years of significant NFL experience, and who contributed about 4,000 snaps, were missing from the 2017 defense due to FA, retirement or from IR-worthy injury for all or a significant part of the 2017 season.

They were essentially replaced by players with a grand total of 17 years of NFL experience (significant or not), including a journeyman reserve DE/DT, three former special-teamers with minor defensive experience, two rookies and a perennial practice-squadder with zero defensive snaps in his career - plus a smattering of snaps (<300 total) from a 31-year-old journeyman reserve DT, a 33-year-old LB and a 39-year-old OLB/DE.

Moreover, not even counting the loss of Hightower, four key holdover players from the 2016 front-7 lost an average of 3 games each to injury. Additionally, the secondary lost one of its key 2016 contributors to FA, and lost two of its key 2017 contributors to injury for 7 and 3 games respectively.

In spite of all that, after a horrible first four games (on a pace to allow over 500 points), the Pats 2017 defense finished 5th in the league in points allowed (296).

So, yeah, let's discuss how the 2017 defense underachieved.

++++++++

Multiplicity, versatility, situational adaptability, ambiguous intent, unpredictability and year-to-year evolution in response to offensive trends have all been hallmarks of BB's defenses. Over the past 17 seasons, those defenses have finished in the Top-10 in fewest points allowed 14 times, and in the Top-5 seven times.

And BB has managed to accomplish all that with a total of 10 1st-round draft picks on defense...
... 2 from the Top-10, one more from the Top-15, and the other seven coming out of the 26th spot on average.

But, yeah, let's discuss how BB's defensive approach needs to change.

Good post but where do we have 10 first round picks in defense? I see brown, gillmore, McCourty and Hightower on IR.

 

[maineman209]

They should but this defense has a few dead wood to cut/trim off.

David Harris
Roberts
Richards
Alan Branch
Jean Francois
Harrison(How many tackles did he miss in that game)
Rowe?(Not sure about him. The way the Eagles exposed him, I don't think he can recover.
I guess a QB in this draft and then all D. Need to hit big. The draft penalties have started to take their toll.

Harris just turned 34 and will cost $2.75M to keep. In his 181 defensive snaps, he contributed about the same as what James Harrison did in just 27 snaps.

Harrison, UFA, would likely cost around $1M to re-sign.

Branch just turned 33 and will cost $3.7M to keep. RJF contributed in 88 snaps what Branch contributed in 274.

RJF (31), a UFA, will likely cost less than $1M to re-sign.

Roberts (23 years old), in just his second season was thrust into "starter-level" snaps due to injuries (HT + McClellin on IR; Van Noy missing four games). He played 588 defensive snaps and ended up 3rd on the team in total tackles with 67 (he also had 2 sacks and a PBU). He's under contract for two more seasons at $655k and $745k.

Richards (25) topped the team in ST snaps in 2017. He saw 272 defensive snaps this season - more than his previous two seasons combined - as an extra (or injury-replacement) LB/SS simply because there wasn't anyone else. There still isn't. He's under contract for 2018 at $1.18M (special-teamer money).

Rowe (26) is under contract for 2018 at $1.10M, less than half what Bademosi made in 2017.

While I understand that Roberts, Richards and Rowe are fan punching bags for failing to meet expectations (so far), the fact is that cutting the three of them saves less than $1.5M in total net cap space. Moreover, cutting them before adequate (much less, superior) replacements are on the roster is simply poor roster management since there's absolutely no guarantee that such "superior" replacements can be acquired.

 

[maineman209]

Are there many players like those available this year? I mean not like moss. No ones that good but I’m wondering who could be brought in?

The Pats have only six draft picks to use on prospects or in trade for vets. They also, currently, have only about $13M in cap space and several valuable in-house UFA to re-sign.

 

[luuked]

Harris just turned 34 and will cost $2.75M to keep. In his 181 defensive snaps, he contributed about the same as what James Harrison did in just 27 snaps.

Harrison, UFA, would likely cost around $1M to re-sign.

Branch just turned 33 and will cost $3.7M to keep. RJF contributed in 88 snaps what Branch contributed in 274.

RJF (31), a UFA, will likely cost less than $1M to re-sign.

Roberts (23 years old), in just his second season was thrust into "starter-level" snaps due to injuries (HT + McClellin on IR; Van Noy missing four games). He played 588 defensive snaps and ended up 3rd on the team in total tackles with 67 (he also had 2 sacks and a PBU). He's under contract for two more seasons at $655k and $745k.

Richards (25) topped the team in ST snaps in 2017. He saw 272 defensive snaps this season - more than his previous two seasons combined - as an extra (or injury-replacement) LB/SS simply because there wasn't anyone else. There still isn't. He's under contract for 2018 at $1.18M (special-teamer money).

Rowe (26) is under contract for 2018 at $1.10M, less than half what Bademosi made in 2017.

While I understand that Roberts, Richards and Rowe are fan punching bags for failing to meet expectations (so far), the fact is that cutting the three of them saves less than $1.5M in total net cap space. Moreover, cutting them before adequate (much less, superior) replacements are on the roster is simply poor roster management since there's absolutely no guarantee that such "superior" replacements can be acquired.

Rowe is a perfectly fine CB3. He has certain shortcomings that get emphasized when he is on a player solo.

At this point I am not even sure if it is worth it to bring Richards back as a camp body or just give a UDFA a shot instead. I can't think of a single redeeming quality he has.

Roberts needs to be a niche player for specific packages. That being said I dont think there is necessarily a place for someone so limited on the 53 in todays NFL. Camp body.


All of that being said I think we are in for an extensive rebuild on defense over the next year. I think Lombardi mentioned it but it is quite possible that BB and Caserio will need to change up their scouting profiles a bit to account for more and more college concepts finding their way into the league. On that level getting Schiano on board would make a lot of sense.

 

[luuked]

The Pats have only six draft picks to use on prospects or in trade for vets. They also, currently, have only about $13M in cap space and several valuable in-house UFA to re-sign.

Wanna hear a low percentage shocking trade I could see happen? Hightower to the Lions.

With how much BB values durability over ability and how High seemed sometimes vocally critical of BB moves (Collins, Butler..) he seems more like a Patricia guy anyway.

Again, low percentage..

 

[maineman209]

I agree with most of this but Harrison is done imo. He helped set the edge for a few weeks but I wouldn’t want him around for a full season, especially since more athleticism on the edge is what they need most defensively. I also think that Roberts would work well as a role player, but he’s not a full time MLB, that was only put upon him because Hightower went down and Harris was a bust.

There are going to be many changes in this defense, but they also have a really good group of young players they can develop into the core of their future defense. Adam Butler, Eric Lee, Marquise Flowers, Derek Rivers, Vincent Valentine, and Jonathan Jones, are all good prospects, how far they can go will depend upon the coaching they get and how hard they work, but the talent is there. Cyrus Jones also has the talent but to date he’s busted, so he’s got a lot of proving to do before he can really be considered a good prospect again.

The thing about Harrison is that he's likely to be a cheap re-signing - 1-year veteran minimum contract - about $1M (before the Minimum Salary Benefit is deducted). Signing him soon for the 90-man off-season roster (to compete/contribute his experience and wisdom) doesn't mean the Pats are stuck with him for the full season.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I'd love an outside shakeup at defense so I'd welcome this move with open arms. I also think it sets us up for probably a successor to Bill as I think Schiano would be more ready and able to follow in Bill's footsteps than Flores considering their personalities

 

[maineman209]

At this point I am not even sure if it is worth it to bring Richards back as a camp body or just give a UDFA a shot instead.

The Pats brought in three promising UDFA safeties last spring. Two of them made the PS. None of them managed to displace Richards, even as a special-teamer.

Again, until they actually have a guy under contract, Richards is a good special-teamer making ST money.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Wanna hear a low percentage shocking trade I could see happen? Hightower to the Lions.

With how much BB values durability over ability and how High seemed sometimes vocally critical of BB moves (Collins, Butler..) he seems more like a Patricia guy anyway.

Again, low percentage..

That is very interesting and intriguing. I did not dismiss it outright, but High is the one I fear the most in potentially being a bit resistant to moving forward with events surrounding the SB.

 

[Ivan]

The Pats brought in three promising UDFA safeties last spring. Two of them made the PS. None of them managed to displace Richards, even as a special-teamer.

Again, until they actually have a guy under contract, Richards is a good special-teamer making ST money.

I don’t want him back, I never see him make plays and too often he misses them. They can fill that spot with a draftee with promise.

 

[Ivan]

That is very interesting and intriguing. I did not dismiss it outright, but High is the one I fear the most in potentially being a bit resistant to moving forward with events surrounding the SB.

Exact same thing we heard when Collins was traded. These guys are professionals, and this won’t be any issue going forward.

 

[luuked]

The Pats brought in three promising UDFA safeties last spring. Two of them made the PS. None of them managed to displace Richards, even as a special-teamer.

Again, until they actually have a guy under contract, Richards is a good special-teamer making ST money.

Obviously. My issue with Richards is that I can't see a single thing that he nails and brings to the table. Most other depth players or ST players I get but he remains a mystery.

 

[Ivan]

I'd love an outside shakeup at defense so I'd welcome this move with open arms. I also think it sets us up for probably a successor to Bill as I think Schiano would be more ready and able to follow in Bill's footsteps than Flores considering their personalities

I keep hearing these kinds of comments and I have absolutely no idea where anyone learned about the personalities of Schiano and Flores?

 

[Ivan]

Obviously. My issue with Richards is that I can't see a single thing that he nails and brings to the table. Most other depth players or ST players I get but he remains a mystery.

That’s how I see it as well. As much as we want the hybrid Safety/LB player’s Richards isn’t a Safety and he isn’t a LB. Role player’s are a strength for this franchise and I think they kind find s better player to fill that role.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I have heard several current and former players endorse Flores as a coach.
Schiano has much more experience, but I have not heard the most positive things about him. I am also not sure if players like to play for him.
Do you guys have some insider knowledge that gives you so much confidence?
( I live in Columbus so I guess I should know more about the guy. )

I was talking about Wade Phillips.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They should but this defense has a few dead wood to cut/trim off.

David Harris
Roberts
Richards
Alan Branch
Jean Francois
Harrison(How many tackles did he miss in that game)
Rowe?(Not sure about him. The way the Eagles exposed him, I don't think he can recover.
I guess a QB in this draft and then all D. Need to hit big.

There is no question they need a talent infusion.

Rowe is a fine CB3.

The draft penalties have started to take their toll.

They have?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Matt Patricia isn't the reason for losing. The D was bend but not break.

And whoever benched Butler...