Will this defense be top ten? (hint: no)

[patsinthesnow]

People assumed without Revis that Chung would go back to sucking. Nope, he's actually been great in coverage vs. TEs and one of the better SS in the league.

People assumed Butler would be outmatched as a CB1. Nope, the last three games he's been as good as any outside CB in the league.

People forgot McCourty is a stud I guess?


NFL fans wanted/hoped out secondary would suck. Too bad it's good and could be elite by next season.

 

[BobDigital]

Thoughts on the D going forward

Sheard/Jones/Nink will continue to rotate and be overall a dominate trio.

Easley/Brown will come along as they year goes on. Right now i do not consider our DT play to be all that good (but not all that bad). Easley to me has been more impressive as a run blocker than pass rusher up to this point. Brown has improved every game IMO and that will hopefully continue with no rookie wall if we continue to rotate. We know what Siliga/Branch bring. Hicks is interesting but not expecting a ton from him TBH. Hoping to be surprised. I think if this unit does improve it will pretty much solely rest on Easley & Brown's growth. I do think it will improve.

Not much needs to be said about the Collins/Hightower combo. Hope to get Hightower back healthy soon. Together they make up the heart of the D right now. Mayo as a backup and occasional 3rd is great.

The safety play is one of the unheralded parts of this team. McCourty goes without saying but Harmon and Chung are having good years too. Chung has done a lot of TE work and has held up well. Richards is starting to get more snaps and is forcing his way on the field. I do think Richards has a chance to be the clear cut starter by the end of the year opposite McCourty but I am glad to see Chung/Harmon making it hard for him.

CB starts with Butler. Brown/Ben combo in his first game was rough but he was competitive. He has feasted on the rest of the league though. Something like 5 catches in the past 3 games (though 2 TDs and 1 missed TD.. though one of those TDs should really be on Harmon. Also plays the run like a SS.

After him it is about working everything else out. I have liked Brown overall and think he has been the most consistent 2nd option. Ryan/Coleman has been good at times. I think the time for a trade may have come and gone but if something opens up then you pounce. Overall this unit has actually been pretty decent. When asked to play man they make things hard on the O generally.

 

[FourierSeries]

Average per game.

And in another moment of "let's be honest"y -

Those numbers are actually better than last year's - both at this point in the season, and by the end of the season.

I'll grant you it was a much tougher schedule last year - but the numbers are what they are.

The schedule was tougher because we played better defenses. We didn't really play any explosive offenses outside of GB.

Denver's offense started their decline in the game against us.

Indy was inconsistent all year and we've always had their number.

I think last year's defense was good, but not elite. Many people here overrated it because we had Revis and won the SB. But it was the offense that carried us.

The 2015 defense is probably on par with the 2014 one. Meanwhile, the offense is even better than it was last season.

 

[50-yard-line]

Yes, and I appreciated the effort at a positive framing in this thread. Still, defensive stats are such fools gold. Witness the fourth quarter of the Cowboys game. They willingly gave up 7 yard completions in the middle of the field in exchange for 30 seconds off the clock. The stats balloon while they calmly, methodically put the clamps on the game.

The Cowboys great 3rd quarter drive ate up more than 8 minutes and netted them 3 points...I have no problem with letting the other team kill the clock for us while our young secondary is getting needed snaps.

 

[TommyD4207]

The 2015 defense is probably on par with the 2014 one. Meanwhile, the offense is even better than it was last season.

That potential fact makes me super-wrong from this offseason.

 

[JMC00]

If we're going to talk about the competition we've faced rendering our stats meaningless, the same thing can be said about Denver, who has faced even weaker competition. Of all the undefeated teams, we've had the most difficult schedule.

Ya gotta love that. Outside of falling asleep in Buffalo in the 4th, Pats defense has been just as good as Denver's.

 

[BobDigital]

The 2015 defense is probably on par with the 2014 one. Meanwhile, the offense is even better than it was last season.

That potential fact makes me super-wrong from this offseason.

This D is better than I expected but I don't think it is going to be as good as 2014. That D had its issues and let downs but it was very clutch and had times it just dominated games against very good offenses. I don't think this D is that good. Here is a thought. If the Pats started Butler the whole game in the SB and had Browner on Matthew would that game have even been close? I don't think so.

 

[FourierSeries]

This D is better than I expected but I don't think it is going to be as good as 2014. That D had its issues and let downs but it was very clutch and had times it just dominated games against very good offenses. I don't think this D is that good. Here is a thought. If the Pats started Butler the whole game in the SB and had Browner on Matthew would that game have even been close? I don't think so.

How do you know it wouldn't have been close? Butler played well on every snap he had in that game. Also, do we get to have the same pass rush that we do this year? With this year's pass rush vs Seattle's oline, we could have held them to under 14 points.

We didn't play any consistently good offenses last year outside of GB.

 

[FourierSeries]

BTW, while I dislike PFF, I think Football Outsider's DVOA rankings are slightly more useful. If I am not mistaken, in recent years, the top teams in total DVOA at the end of week 17 have played in the SB. So it has some predictive power.

We're currently #1 in total DVOA, and #1 in offense DVOA and #9 in defense DVOA. Offensive and defensive DVOA are adjusted by strength of opponent.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

For what it's worth, last year we were ranked 12th in DVOA.

 

[Tony2046]

BTW, while I dislike PFF, I think Football Outsider's DVOA rankings are slightly more useful. If I am not mistaken, in recent years, the top 2 teams in total DVOA at the end of week 17 have played in the SB. So it has some predictive power.

We're currently #1 in total DVOA, and #1 in offense DVOA and #9 in defense DVOA. Offensive and defensive DVOA are adjusted by strength of opponent.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

One of my favorite sites.

 

[BobDigital]

How do you know it wouldn't have been close? Butler played well on every snap he had in that game. Also, do we get to have the same pass rush that we do this year? With this year's pass rush vs Seattle's oline, we could have held them to under 14 points.

We didn't play any consistently good offenses last year outside of GB.

I don't know only guessing Just mostly trying to point out the reason they were in that game is cause Arrington played horrible and once Butler came in i don't think they allowed a point.

I we should be happy with how this defense has played. But I just don't think it should be put up there with 2014.

 

[VrabelJr]

People had the same complaints about our defense last year because all people look at are stat aggregates rather than seeing how absolutely monstrous our defense was in the second half last year when they needed to be. Time will tell for this defense. Once someone puts their backs against their wall we will see how they respond.

 

[BradyFTW!]

BTW, while I dislike PFF, I think Football Outsider's DVOA rankings are slightly more useful. If I am not mistaken, in recent years, the top teams in total DVOA at the end of week 17 have played in the SB. So it has some predictive power.

We're currently #1 in total DVOA, and #1 in offense DVOA and #9 in defense DVOA. Offensive and defensive DVOA are adjusted by strength of opponent.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

For what it's worth, last year we were ranked 12th in DVOA.

Also worth noting: FO projects that we've had the 15th hardest schedule so far, and the 20th hardest schedule remaining. Our schedule so far hasn't been as easy as some detractors are claiming, and the remaining schedule isn't as hard as some are claiming: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

 

[VrabelJr]

Remember last year when everyone was constantly running up the middle against us? Our DT play this year is better than people realize. Nobody is running up the middle against us.

 

[ViperGTS]

I don't know only guessing Just mostly trying to point out the reason they were in that game is cause Arrington played horrible and once Butler came in i don't think they allowed a point.

I we should be happy with how this defense has played. But I just don't think it should be put up there with 2014.

Well to be fair putting Browner on Mathews was huge, and moving Arrington to the bench for Butler obviously helped.

Why Browner wasn't on Mathews after his first non defended catch was a coaching mistake. Thankfully he had Butler on the bench.

 

[FourierSeries]

Also worth noting: FO projects that we've had the 15th hardest schedule so far, and the 20th hardest schedule remaining. Our schedule so far hasn't been as easy as some detractors are claiming, and the remaining schedule isn't as hard as some are claiming: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

And Denver has had the 27th hardest schedule, which just confirms what we've all been saying. However, their remaining schedule is ranked 6th. They will have their work cut out for them.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Good take on why the defense may be "outperforming" here:

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/13/new-england-patriots-defense-nfl

 

[SalemPats]

Oh, and count me among those who were pretty pissed the Patriots let Revis walk in the offseason.

We didn't really let Revis walk. BB wanted to re-sign him, but we couldn't compete with what the Jets were offering. In order for us to sign him he would have to take a discount (we were hoping that winning championships would give us an edge).

 

[SalemPats]

I just want to say that this is a top 10 defense that will probably finish just outside the top ten because of garbage 4th quarter points.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Good take on why the defense may be "outperforming" here:

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/13/new-england-patriots-defense-nfl

Some good points here, but the Tyrod Taylor-led Bills put up 27 points against the mighty Colts that we are supposed to be afraid of now. They also dropped 41 on the lowly Dolphins. Those same Dolphins lost to the Jaguars who the Pats dropped 51 on. The Weeden-led Cowboys that Pats D kept out of the endzone dropped 28 on the unbeaten Falcons.

They have yet to face an "elite" QB (except in practice), but they have played pretty well. The first real tests will be the Giants and then the Broncos two weeks later.

Hopefully, by the time January/February rolls around the secondary will have continued to improve as the real challenges could come then (Bengals, Packers, Falcons, Cardinals). Thankfully, the Pats have some of the best depth in the entire NFL, particularly on defense, so I expect those matchups to get more favorable as the season moves along.