If the Jets win tonight, they would win the division if the two teams end up tied, based on the head to head tiebreaker. So in other words if the Jets win tonight the Pats would have to win at least two more games than the Jets the rest of the way - i.e., go 4-0 to the Jets 2-2 or worse, 3-1 to their 1-3 or worse, or 2-2 to their going 0-4.
On the other hand if the Pats win tonight and the two finish with the same record, the tiebreaker could go either way, depending on what happens in each of the two team's final four games.
Take it one step further and there are 25 different win-loss combinations for the two teams in the final four games - e.g., Pats win 4 & Jets win 4, Pats win 4 & Jets win 3, Pats win 4 & Jets win 2, etc., all the way to zero wins for both teams.
Based on that 'coin-flip' theory for the last four weeks, there are 15 different win-loss combinations (60%) that the Pats would win the division after a win tonight, four combinations (16%) that would result in a tie that could go either way, and six combinations (24%) that would result in the Jets winning the division if the Pats win tonight. Split those tiebreakers 50-50 and it's 68% to 32% in favor of the Pats winning the AFCE if they win tonight.
On the other hand if the Jets win then it is the Pats with just six combinations (24%) to win the division outright and the Jets get the 15 combinations (60%) to finish with a better record. But in this case the Jets till win the division in the event of a tie for final season record, so they win the division with those four other win-loss combinations. That means if the Jets win they have a 76% probability of winning the division and the Pats would have only a 24% chance of winning the AFCE.
Obviously that's not a perfect way of looking at it because both teams should have more than a 50-50 chance of beating Miami at home and of beating Buffalo, but it does illustrate the importance of this game to determining the division winner.
Also, it has been brought up about how the 5th seed - most likely the loser of this game - has to play three games on the road while the winner of this game will probably get a week off and then two home games.
In addition that 5th seed not only might have to cross three time zones to play on the west coast, if that is the case there is also a 50-50 chance that they would have to do it on a short week. Don't forget that in the playoffs there is one game on Saturday and one on Sunday in each conference. Since neither the AFCW or NFCW division winner will bet a bye this year, one will play on Saturday and the other on Sunday.
Just one more reason the outcome of this game is extremely important.