Will the winner of the Pats-Jets game win the AFC East?

[SuperPatsFan]

Just looking for input from both fanbases on the stakes Monday night.

 

[vyrago]

I think probably the winner will, but there are a few games after that game where anything can happen. Holly on CSN last night said it was a must-win. Bob Ryan practically took his head off for saying such an outrageous thing. He a said, you're trying to scare people with that stuff, to which Holly took great umbrage.

 

[Robdude]

If the Jets win then I believe they will win the division. A one game lead with the tie breaker would be difficult. Especially with the Pats up coming schedule.

If the Pats win then it gives them the advantage but I do not think it is as easy for them to still win the division.

 

[Kontradiction]

Looking at both of our remaining schedules, the team that wins this game will not only win the AFC East, but will win the entire conference.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

If you look at both the Patriots and Jets schedules after Monday night, they are nearly identical. Both teams will play the Bears, Bills, and Dolphins. The only difference is that the Patriots will play the Packers and the Jets will play the Steelers. I think that the winner this Monday night will most likely take the division but obviously it isn't certain. The way the Jets have been just barely pulling these games off recently, I think that they will finally lose a couple at the end of the season even if they do beat us. It should be a great game, I can't wait.

 

[Doggin94it]

No question - the winner takes a two game lead in the division with 4 to play (Jets on head to head, Pats on SoV tie breakers). Both have games against Buffalo and Miami coming up, so the Jets would stand a chance of winning the division if the Pats lose to either of those teams and they tie at 13-3 (on the division record tie breaker), and the Pats could win the division even with a loss, if they win out and the Jets lose 2 of the final 4. But both those scenarios are unlikely

 

[nabwong]

If the Jets win then I believe they will win the division. A one game lead with the tie breaker would be difficult. Especially with the Pats up coming schedule.

If the Pats win then it gives them the advantage but I do not think it is as easy for them to still win the division.

This.

We've almost the same schedule remaining but we've got green bay, who I fear more than steelers. So it'll be a tougher run-in for us.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Can't really answer that with any authority

If the Jets win they WILL win this division unless they toss 2 sudden unexpected clunkers in december AND the Pats win out.

If the Pats win they have the edge but are not as guaranteed the division as the Jets would be since NY would have swept NE

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I think its more than likely that the teams who win the Sunday and Monday night games will be seeds #1 and #2 in January

 

[asfpnepRefugee]

If the Jets win then I believe they will win the division. A one game lead with the tie breaker would be difficult. Especially with the Pats up coming schedule.

If the Pats win then it gives them the advantage but I do not think it is as easy for them to still win the division.

This. Also, I know a lot of people are looking at the remaining schedules and thinking that this game settles the #1 seed for the AFC, but I'm not so sure about that. Both teams have some very losable games left on their schedule, not to mention the Any Given Sunday effect.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

The final result: over 96% of respondents believe this game is "almost certainly" or "probably" for the AFC East.

Game day!

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I can't remember a bigger regular season game. Think about the difference between winning and losing this game. Almost certainly (even more so for the Pats) the winner is going to win the AFCE and be the #1 seed. And the loser is going to have to play three road games in the playoffs.

BUT: Next year, the winner will get (more than likely) Pittsburg & Jacksonville (I'm pretty sure the AFCE plays the AFCW next year so that doesn't matter). Wheras the loser of this game will most likely get Indy and Baltimore.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

this game puts the pats season in thier hands.. a win and we could be home in jan... a loss lets hope a first round game in jax will be on the docuet.. or

 

[JFaulkNYJ]

if the pats win tonight they will win the afc east 99%

if the jets win they will win the afc east 80%

just my opinion. (jets fan)

 

[jmt57]

If the Jets win tonight, they would win the division if the two teams end up tied, based on the head to head tiebreaker. So in other words if the Jets win tonight the Pats would have to win at least two more games than the Jets the rest of the way - i.e., go 4-0 to the Jets 2-2 or worse, 3-1 to their 1-3 or worse, or 2-2 to their going 0-4.

On the other hand if the Pats win tonight and the two finish with the same record, the tiebreaker could go either way, depending on what happens in each of the two team's final four games.

Take it one step further and there are 25 different win-loss combinations for the two teams in the final four games - e.g., Pats win 4 & Jets win 4, Pats win 4 & Jets win 3, Pats win 4 & Jets win 2, etc., all the way to zero wins for both teams.

Based on that 'coin-flip' theory for the last four weeks, there are 15 different win-loss combinations (60%) that the Pats would win the division after a win tonight, four combinations (16%) that would result in a tie that could go either way, and six combinations (24%) that would result in the Jets winning the division if the Pats win tonight. Split those tiebreakers 50-50 and it's 68% to 32% in favor of the Pats winning the AFCE if they win tonight.

On the other hand if the Jets win then it is the Pats with just six combinations (24%) to win the division outright and the Jets get the 15 combinations (60%) to finish with a better record. But in this case the Jets till win the division in the event of a tie for final season record, so they win the division with those four other win-loss combinations. That means if the Jets win they have a 76% probability of winning the division and the Pats would have only a 24% chance of winning the AFCE.



Obviously that's not a perfect way of looking at it because both teams should have more than a 50-50 chance of beating Miami at home and of beating Buffalo, but it does illustrate the importance of this game to determining the division winner.

Also, it has been brought up about how the 5th seed - most likely the loser of this game - has to play three games on the road while the winner of this game will probably get a week off and then two home games.

In addition that 5th seed not only might have to cross three time zones to play on the west coast, if that is the case there is also a 50-50 chance that they would have to do it on a short week. Don't forget that in the playoffs there is one game on Saturday and one on Sunday in each conference. Since neither the AFCW or NFCW division winner will bet a bye this year, one will play on Saturday and the other on Sunday.

Just one more reason the outcome of this game is extremely important.