Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis Make the 53?

[BradyFTW!]

You are also assuming that Maroney 0 while PlowGuy gets 3, but that isnt really the case either.

Maroney does get stopped for a short loss/no gain more frequently than our other RBs. I'm just challenging the relevance of that, since the difference between 3rd and 11 and 3rd and 9 is pretty negligible. On 1st and 10, any run of less than 4 yards is a 'fail'. On 2nd and 10, any run of less than 6 yards is a 'fail'.

That is the irony. The reason Maroneys #s are better is the exact part of his game he gets criticized for. The best RBs in the NFL have a 40% fail ratio, and the average is 50+.
Maroney turns nothing into something sometimes, but the times there are nothing, he danced, as if that caused the blocking to not be there.

Yeah, I think people in general just have trouble grasping the concepts of percentages on this board. Whether or not a decision was correct is not dependent on the outcome- it's dependent upon the odds that you left yourself with. In every single facet of the game, Belichick plays the odds better than anyone else, IMO. It's all about accepting that there are elements of the game that are out of your control and absolutely crushing the things that are within your control. It's the same philosophy for why he's such a slave-driver about not committing penalties. Some guys might look at it and say "a 5 yard penalty isn't going to put points on the board" or "it was worth it to get my guys fired up", but Belichick understands that those five yards are important in playing the percentages w/ the field position battle.

A family friend that works in the Patriots organization once said that a large part of the reason why they decided to draft Gostkowski and let Vinatieri go was because they felt that Gostkowski had a bunch of value on kickoffs, where he could consistently get them those few extra yards of field position at the start of each drive. Something as seemingly small as that was a significant factor in their decision to let Vinatieri walk (was Vinatieri even doing kickoffs at that point? I seem to recall that he wasn't). That's the kind of level that the Pats' coaching staff is thinking about.

For people that understand that type of systematic thinking, Belichick's coaching style and drafting strategy make a whole lot of sense. For people who don't understand that..., well, they end up making broad decisions off of sweeping generalizations that are supported by anecdotal evidence and tiny sample sizes.

 

[Ring 6]

Maroney does get stopped for a short loss/no gain more frequently than our other RBs. I'm just challenging the relevance of that, since the difference between 3rd and 11 and 3rd and 9 is pretty negligible. On 1st and 10, any run of less than 4 yards is a 'fail'. On 2nd and 10, any run of less than 6 yards is a 'fail'.



Yeah, I think people in general just have trouble grasping the concepts of percentages on this board. Whether or not a decision was correct is not dependent on the outcome- it's dependent upon the odds that you left yourself with. In every single facet of the game, Belichick plays the odds better than anyone else, IMO. It's all about accepting that there are elements of the game that are out of your control and absolutely crushing the things that are within your control. It's the same philosophy for why he's such a slave-driver about not committing penalties. Some guys might look at it and say "a 5 yard penalty isn't going to put points on the board" or "it was worth it to get my guys fired up", but Belichick understands that those five yards are important in playing the percentages w/ the field position battle.

A family friend that works in the Patriots organization once said that a large part of the reason why they decided to draft Gostkowski and let Vinatieri go was because they felt that Gostkowski had a bunch of value on kickoffs, where he could consistently get them those few extra yards of field position at the start of each drive. Something as seemingly small as that was a significant factor in their decision to let Vinatieri walk (was Vinatieri even doing kickoffs at that point? I seem to recall that he wasn't). That's the kind of level that the Pats' coaching staff is thinking about.

For people that understand that type of systematic thinking, Belichick's coaching style and drafting strategy make a whole lot of sense. For people who don't understand that..., well, they end up making broad decisions off of sweeping generalizations that are supported by anecdotal evidence and tiny sample sizes.

My biggest gripe has always been blowing things out of proportion.
There are something like 300 3rd down conversions every Sunday but if we give up one we 'cant get off the field'.
Qbs are hit all day long in every game,but if Brady gets knocked down once, he took a beating.
RDEs average about 3/4s of a sack a game but in any game Matt Light allows one he 'cant handle the speed rusher'.
Anyplay that doesnt work was a stupid call by the OC and he should have known better because we can see from our living room what would have worked. 3 failed plays is sufficient to say the OC sucked even though about 50% of the plays in the NFL are won by the defense.
God forbid any of our guys ever fumble.
And of course, Maroney dances.

 

[BradyFTW!]

My biggest gripe has always been blowing things out of proportion.
There are something like 300 3rd down conversions every Sunday but if we give up one we 'cant get off the field'.
Qbs are hit all day long in every game,but if Brady gets knocked down once, he took a beating.
RDEs average about 3/4s of a sack a game but in any game Matt Light allows one he 'cant handle the speed rusher'.
Anyplay that doesnt work was a stupid call by the OC and he should have known better because we can see from our living room what would have worked. 3 failed plays is sufficient to say the OC sucked even though about 50% of the plays in the NFL are won by the defense.
God forbid any of our guys ever fumble.
And of course, Maroney dances.

Yup, agreed- symptomatic of the same problem, which is complete failure to see the bigger picture. People are so wrapped up in making snap judgments that it doesn't occur to them that a play that works 60% of the time is a damn good play.... but it'll still fail 40% of the time.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I score it AndyJohnson by a knockout.

 

[Deus Irae]

This deserves a bump.


BJGE makes the roster, as do all the other expected running backs. Thomas gets traded to the Saints, opening up some fullback snaps to Morris and BJGE, perhaps.

 

[livinginthe past]

I think to think of myself as a low threshold risk taker.

I just voted yes.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I think to think of myself as a low threshold risk taker.

I just voted yes.

You and ten other comedians.

 

[BadMoFo]

Gonna have to go with no. Wait, I mean yes.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well, count me as surprised. Looks like I'm eating some crow on this one. IMO, I think his pass blocking, of all things, may have won him a spot. Maroney and Morris aren't great at it- if Faulk has to miss a game here or there, we need a RB who can reliably protect Brady, and I saw a few nice blocks from BJGE the other night.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Well, count me as surprised. Looks like I'm eating some crow on this one, IMO, I think his pass blocking, of all things, may have won him a spot. Maroney and Morris aren't great at it- if Faulk has to miss a game here or there, we need a RB who can reliably protect Brady, and I saw a few nice blocks from BJGE the other night.

BB made mention of his "blocking and pass protection" as well as his pass catching (which was very good against the Giants). It certainly must have helped.

 

[muzz]

I like BJGE, I just think he's a Player.

Maybe not the fastest, or jumps the highest, but I think he does what is necessary....
If he were blocking in game 1 last year instead of Morris(was that blocking? BAH) we may have won another, and Cassel would probably be on a new team as a BACKUP for 800,000.

 

[Ring 6]

This deserves a bump.


BJGE makes the roster, as do all the other expected running backs. Thomas gets traded to the Saints, opening up some fullback snaps to Morris and BJGE, perhaps.

I was thinking we have an offense that doesnt include FB as a position.
I assume in short yardage he will use an OL or even DL.

I don't imagine those guys will play FB, but Patrick Pass did, so who knows what is up the proverbial sleeve

 

[Patspsycho]

Someone else needs to eat crow too.

 

[mgteich]

Green-Ellis made the squad. I didn't think he would. He could be cut tomorrow or next week. He is at the bottom of the roster and won't be active unless there are two injuries at RB or there are so many others dinged up that he need to be active to fill in on special teams.

 

[thewaylifeshouldbe]

I'm all for BJGE being on the roster. But I know this roster is not carved in stone just yet.

Still time (lots) for trades and changes.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Yes, he is a good running back. He has proven that he can run, very slowly.

 

[muzz]

Yes, he is a good running back. He has proven that he can run, very slowly.

I personally don't judge people by how fast they are..Chad jackson is fast, do ya think he should be on this team?

Bah

BTW..
Mister Maroney has 12 total TDS in 388 carries
BJGE has 5 TDS in 74 Carries

Ben doesn't turn into a pumpkin when a defender comes around neither

 

[mgteich]

Do you really think that our 5th string halfback could be vulnerable? I'm sure he is more valuable than any other 5th stringer on the team.

I'm all for BJGE being on the roster. But I know this roster is not carved in stone just yet.

Still time (lots) for trades and changes.

 

[thewaylifeshouldbe]

Do you really think that our 5th string halfback could be vulnerable? I'm sure he is more valuable than any other 5th stringer on the team.

Uh, if I had to wager I would say that BJGE is about 50th- 51st overall on the team in totality, and would be a likely cut if the right lineman or linebacker came on board.

 

[spacecrime]

Green-Ellis made the squad. I didn't think he would.

There are so many things we think. I thought Dave Thomas secured a spot with this led blocking. I thought Andrew Walter was a perfect pickup.

Nothing wrong with thinking, as long as we don't confuse our thoughts with being facts or prophesies.