I would like to see us come away with at least one blue chip prospect plus 3-4 red chip prospects. Because there is so much depth in this draft, red chip prospects will probably go out to about 75 or so, maybe more. Also, because there is so much depth at certain positions with relatively little sepration among the top prospects (including OG and DE/OLB), I'd rather see us take those positions in the 2nd round than use up our first round pick on them. I like Mike Iupati, but I'm not sure I like him any better than Gabe Carimi or Vladimir Ducasse, for example. I like Greg Romeus, but I also like Greg Hardy, Jason Pierre-Paul, Austen Lane and Jeremy Beal.
The blue chip guys that I could see us targeting (with or without a tradeup) include:
1. ILB Rolando McClain. He could go top 10, but I'm guessing he slips back a bit to the 10-20 range because of his position and lack of top-end speed. If he's still available within 10 picks of where we are scheduled to pick, I hope we trade up for him. He's the only guy I would trade up for. The guy has been playing in a system similar to ours. He seems like a guy that should be best suited to make the switch to our system. More importantly, this guy could play the strong side inside linebacker position. This could free up Mayo to make a bunch of plays. He may be misused where he is. Then again, who do we have to do what he does.
2. CB Joe Haden. Not a need unless we don't re-sign or replace Leigh Bodden, in which case CB is a definite need. Haden and Butler would be a heck of a CB tandem. Probably 10-15 pick. Few corners come in day one and play at elite level. I think it took the Jets' Revis 10 weeks to really take his game to a high level. Not many players can do that. I like the kids' athletic ability. I know this is going to be controversial, but with the kind of pressure that Florida puts on opposing offensive lines, he usually isn't asked to cover guys for that long. The Alabama game was an exception, but I don't think that Alabama's receivers are NFL caliber at this time. Julio Jones may develop into one, but not now. If he falls, so be it. If now, oh well.
3. DE Cameron Heyward. May not come out, but I think he could be another Seymour at the 5-technique, which is a position of need. Could go anywhere from around 12 to the early 2nd round. You're starting to convince me. I really want to see how he performs in his bowl game. I'll definitely keep an eye on this kid.
4. RB CJ Spiller. His upside, as BillBelichickFan79 put it, is Chris Johnson with better receiving and return ability. His downside is a 3rd down back and STer, but if you believe his upside he is worth a 1st round pick if he slides to the early 20's. The kid can move. It's his build that concerns me. Every person is different. I know that his height and weight are comparable to Johnson's, but the distribution seems different. Spiller looks a little leaner than Johnson. I think you're right about him having a future about a third down back and special teamer. If he falls to our last second round selection, we should take a chance, not before: we have too many needs.
If no blue chip prospect is available (or a trade doesn't work out), then I could see the Pats moving back in the 1st round or out of it altogether, since there's not a lot to separate all of the red chip prospects.