What Are Our Chances of Winning Super Bowl 50?

[Off The Grid]

We're all Patriots Fans, here, save for a few Guests, and are all presumably rooting for this magnificent Team that has brought The Most American Part of America ~ that's New EngLand, baby!! ~ more Pride and Glory than any FootBall Dynasty ever, both in the Championships we've won and even more so in the way our Team has gone about its Business: The relentless Work, the Attention to Detail, and above all: The way they sacrifice individual Accomplishment for each other...and therefore also for us, their devoted Fans.

We're all rooting for them, which I consider synonymous for rooting for us, and it is indeed a Privilege.

But I've long held that rooting for a Team is not synonymous to presuming Victory.

"Are the Patriots gonna win it all this Year??" "Of course!!"

Presuming Victory, in fact, strikes me as not only asinine ~ the other guys are trying to win, too, and we're not the Harlem GlobeTrotters ~ but as a recipe for Misery: If you win, it's not Fun.

It's a Relief.

And if you lose, it sucks 1000 times more, because you refused to allow for that possible outcome.

I embraced that Mentality for Years ~ it's what I was taught ~ until it occurred to me that I was spending far too much Time pissed off, and not nearly enough Time gratefully enjoying this Team's Greatness.

Screw that: I let it go. Yeah, cue the Frozen Tune. I let all my Presumptions and Expectorations go.

I presume Nothing...and that allows me to Hope for the best...and thus to enjoy it.

And I've always applied The Immortal Wisdom of John FitzGerald Kennedy to my approach to being a Fan:

Ask not, what your Team can do for you. Ask what you can do...for your Team.

***

What I mean to say is: I think it might startle or even surprise many Fans to realize, that, according to Vegas, which tends to be a good gauge of public sentiment because it's in their Interests to be ~ even the leading Favorites to win the Super Bowl ~ and our Patriots are among them ~ are given about 1 Chance in 4.

Here's a Link to one Site's Odds.

That's perfectly logical, of course, I'm sure we'd all agree, but is nevertheless a Manifestation of Reality that'll probably serve as a Wake Up Call to many: We are given an 80% Chance of "Failure!!"

What that means, of course, is that the general consensus ~ to such extent as The Vegas Line represents it ~ is that nobody is expected to win the the Super Bowl. Put another way: The Champion will have to win ~ to survive ~ at least a couple Games in which they are given no more than about a 50/50 Chance.

It's a sobering thought.

***

None of which is to criticize anyone who considers our Chances far better than 1 in 4, mind you!!

Indeed, you can make a very strong Argument, indeed, that the Patriots are the least flawed and the best led of all the AFC Teams and should roll right through them, regardless of where we play.

And whoever wins the NFC, while they will almost certainly prove to be a more formidable Adversary than the AFC Teams, will likely be either the SeaHawks, who only survived the Vikings because of a freak Play, or a more talented Cardinal or Panther Team...neither of which is as experienced as the Patriots.

And in case anyone's wondering if Experience matters: I give you the Packers and RedSkins Game, yesterday, where I advised you, my Brethren to "Bet The House" on Green Bay, despite their decrepit state.

You can make a strong Argument that the Patriots have a very good Chance of Winning It All.

***

So I thought it might be a little fun and interesting to construct a Poll along those lines.

What do you think our Chances are??

 

[Off The Grid]

WTF??? I didn't hit SEND!!

I'm going to send in a request ~ I hope the Mods are awake early!! ~

The last Option should read:

" 2 Chances in 3 ~ The Best Led Team in the League is finally getting Healthy!! "

Hopefully, someone'll edit that for us, soon.

 

[jri37]

My observation would be 1 in 4. The league is QB centric and if the final 4 is Pitt/NE Car/Ariz you are looking at 4 quality QB's and 4 sound football teams. Perhaps the edge for the Pats is they have a coaching staff that is detailed oriented and for the most part this team understands what it takes to prepare for this playoff run based on what they experienced last year. just my .02 cents

 

[Nunchucks]

If the Patriots can get by Denver, I feel they have an excellent shot....but, first they need to beat Kansas City

 

[A Defiant Goose]

hint: bad

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I say 1 in 3 chance. Like last year, I feel the real AFCCG is being hosted in NE (in the divisional round) this year. I think whoever wins that game beats either one of Denver or Pittsburgh regardless of where it's played. If Seattle upsets Carolina like I anticipate them doing, everything lines up well. I don't worry about any other team in the NFC as much as I worry about Carolina just because running QBs freak me the f*ck out

 

[HeadHunter]

I'm saying 1 in 6 for right now until I see how they look Saturday. Part of me is just too concerned that our line is so bad right now Jules may not be able to totally mask our issues there. Also not sure if he will be rusty ect....BUT fingers crossed, I'm really hoping we see a totally different team, you can never count them out. I'm just one of those expect the worst so your not disappointed types

 

[chasa]

42

 

[BobDigital]

Well I think 1 in 3 is the best measurement right now.

It is between the team we know they can be if they get guys back healthy (how healthy will they be?) and the team they are now but playing seriously to win (something like they were against Philly minus STs errors)

The problem is a lot of people look at the last 2 games in particular and think that is what that team was capable of them. They were capable of a good deal more but held back (though not as much in the Jets game) try to stay healthy while hopefully winning enough to get the first seed.

I think 1 in 3 is putting them between the 2. On one end you have the best team in the NFL in all likelyhood. On the other end you have a depleted team with a fighting chance but is in the pack with a lot of the others still left.

 

[reflexblue]

I'll take door #10. Best led team thats getting healthy. With all the pressure that comes in the playoffs leadership counts for A LOT

 

[turkeyneck]

Too soon to say. We don't know what team we are talking about. The KC game will tell us much about whether we have the good Pats back or the bad Pats linger on. For the poll's sake, I'll assume the good Pats return and put us at about 1:4.

 

[SalemPats]

99% we win the SB.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think any of the eight teams still standing could win it all, with the right combination of big plays by anyone from #1 to #53 on the Depth Chart (remember Malcolm Butler) along with a little luck and a few calls going their way. So, I said one in eight.

 

[Rhodey]

Bill Belichick: Blueprint For Patriots To Beat Chiefs ‘Doesn’t Exist’

Read more at: Bill Belichick: Blueprint For Patriots To Beat Chiefs 'Doesn't Exist'

“Well, the fact that they haven’t lost in so long, it’s not like you can go to a game and say, ‘OK, well, here is how this team defeated them,'” Belichick said. “That just doesn’t exist. We’ve got to figure out a way and there is not a great example on film. There are different things we can point to and different ideas or concepts or a certain part of the game that went well for one of Kansas City’s opponents, but overall nothing really that you could say, ‘OK, this team found a way to do it,’ because they didn’t.

Personally, I'd be taking this one game at a time. The NEP have lost 4 of their last 6. KC has just been winning. And the NEP do not currently have home-field advantage throughout.

Of course, I'd like to see the Pats repeat, but this is no cakewalk.

 

[patriot1136]

Bill Belichick: Blueprint For Patriots To Beat Chiefs ‘Doesn’t Exist’

Read more at: Bill Belichick: Blueprint For Patriots To Beat Chiefs 'Doesn't Exist'

“Well, the fact that they haven’t lost in so long, it’s not like you can go to a game and say, ‘OK, well, here is how this team defeated them,'” Belichick said. “That just doesn’t exist. We’ve got to figure out a way and there is not a great example on film. There are different things we can point to and different ideas or concepts or a certain part of the game that went well for one of Kansas City’s opponents, but overall nothing really that you could say, ‘OK, this team found a way to do it,’ because they didn’t.

Personally, I'd be taking this one game at a time. The NEP have lost 4 of their last 6. KC has just been winning. And the NEP do not currently have home-field advantage throughout.

Of course, I'd like to see the Pats repeat, but this is no cakewalk.

That being said, I think this is where we turn it around against the Chiefs.

 

[IllegalContact]

can't place a number on it except for betting purposes......if they play well they'll win, if they don't they won't

the odds for the pats are pretty equal to panthers and cardinals and better than everyone else's

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

On a level playing field, we have as good a chance as anybody.

After deflategate and the officiating in our regular season game against Denver, I simply do not trust this league. It's been made fully clear that they favor and disfavor certain teams.

I'm fully expecting a few well timed flags negating big plays, killing momentum, and sustaining opponent's drives on phantom calls. The league has pretty much mastered this art. Since the league has all the major news outlets under its thumb, no one will call them out on this.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

That being said, I think this is where we turn it around against the Chiefs.

not like they have a choice...

 

[TinhWoodhead]

we have a good chance if we score more than the other teams

 

[Galeb]

If the OL starts playing decent (not great), I think the Pats are the favorite. If the OL doesn't improve at all, the Pats are unlikely to beat KC. Even when Volmer was healthy, the OL was playing like crap. Hopefully they got it straightened out in the bye week.