Is this based on gut feeling, past seasons, statistics, simple game watching?
2014 Ravens Results against Indy and Cincy:
Indy Colts Vs Baltimore = 7 point loss
Cincy Bengals Vs Baltimore - 7 point loss
Cincy Bengals Vs Baltimore - 3 point loss
((they had two shots at Cincy and couldn't best them once))
The last 5 games of the season for Baltimore: 20-10 over Cleveland (10-3 cleveland leading in the 4th - Go Connor Shaw!), 25-13 loss to the Texans, 20-12 win over Jax (17 to 12 up until the final minutes - Go Blake Bortles!), 34-33 loss to Chargers, 28-13 over Miami (a game that was 14-13 up to approx. 10 mins left in the 4th quarter). I'd go further back than 5, one that would paints only a modestly better picture), but the performance difference isn't extremely contrasting.
The 2014 Ravens paint a picture of not displaying a high level potency except in few spots and mostly against flotsam and jetsam (very few wins against playoff teams).
Yet it is patently obvious the Ravens are who we wouldn't want to play out of those three? Except for last week's performance, that conclusion isn't overly supported by the 2014 Raven track record. The big picture says, IMHO, the Patriots have have more often than not dismissed teams of the 2014 Raven's caliber.