Welcome to the New England Patriots, Safety Duron Harmon

[Metaphors]

I simply don't understand what some people think Belichick did with the Harmon pick:

- Belichick knew for certain he could get Harmon with one of his 7th round picks but decided to take him 4 rounds earlier, intentionally "injuring" his team by spending more capital for a player than was required.

- Belichick had a number of similar ranked prospects at safety sitting at #91, certainly enough to last to their next pick at #102, but picked Harmon anyway and intentionally risked losing Boyce (Rams and Jags both picked WRs).

And these seem reasonable to people? How about I try one:

- Belichick had a fairly shallow draft board because this draft class is poor so he was targeting key aspects needed by the team. One of those was a speedy safety that can play centerfield and cover a lot of ground, but is smart enough to communicate and execute the needed coverage. The guy that meets this criteria best was Harmon. The Pats could get him in the middle rounds but risk losing him by the 7th (some late buzz on him plus Schiano could grab him for TB). When #91 rolls around, the Pats try to trade into 2014 but find no takers. Forced to pick, they only have a few guys left on their board (before the STers and projects late). Since they might try again to trade pick #102 into 2014 and be left with no picks until the 7th, Belichick decided to finish his to-do list for this draft class. This means that Boyce was either expendable (not a top priority) or there were a number of WRs that graded out similar for the Pats.

Doesn't that sound more reasonable? Go ahead and hammer Belichick for his evaluation of Harmon...but that would require you to analyze Harmon yourself to come up with negatives. Criticizing Belichick because he didn't follow a script created by anonymous scouts that may or may not have even rated Harmon seems a bit stupid.

 

[manxman2601]

I simply don't understand what some people think Belichick did with the Harmon pick:

- Belichick knew for certain he could get Harmon with one of his 7th round picks but decided to take him 4 rounds earlier, intentionally "injuring" his team by spending more capital for a player than was required.

- Belichick had a number of similar ranked prospects at safety sitting at #91, certainly enough to last to their next pick at #102, but picked Harmon anyway and intentionally risked losing Boyce (Rams and Jags both picked WRs).

And these seem reasonable to people? How about I try one:

- Belichick had a fairly shallow draft board because this draft class is poor so he was targeting key aspects needed by the team. One of those was a speedy safety that can play centerfield and cover a lot of ground, but is smart enough to communicate and execute the needed coverage. The guy that meets this criteria best was Harmon. The Pats could get him in the middle rounds but risk losing him by the 7th (some late buzz on him plus Schiano could grab him for TB). When #91 rolls around, the Pats try to trade into 2014 but find no takers. Forced to pick, they only have a few guys left on their board (before the STers and projects late). Since they might try again to trade pick #102 into 2014 and be left with no picks until the 7th, Belichick decided to finish his to-do list for this draft class. This means that Boyce was either expendable (not a top priority) or there were a number of WRs that graded out similar for the Pats.

Doesn't that sound more reasonable? Go ahead and hammer Belichick for his evaluation of Harmon...but that would require you to analyze Harmon yourself to come up with negatives. Criticizing Belichick because he didn't follow a script created by anonymous scouts that may or may not have even rated Harmon seems a bit stupid.

It's a pretty good theory. Mine is this:

Belichick wants to draft a safety and a WR but doesn't want to be left scraping the barrel in the seventh round.

When picking at #91, there are more WRs than safeties left on his board. A number of the safeties picked after Harmon weren't a great fit and maybe not on the board

BB realises that he might be able to get Harmon later but doesn't want to risk waiting until the 7th because there are no guarantees at that point. He tries to trade back but there are no takers.

There are a number of WRs still available at #91 that are similar: Stedman Bailey, Josh Boyce, Kenny Stills, Ryan Swope. Some of these will still be available at #102.

so, unable to trade back and with less safeties than receivers on his board, the smart play is to take the safety at #91 and then take the best receiver on the board at #102 because there's greater choice.

 

[patfanken]

A lot of people were saying the same thing about Tavon Wilson last season. Then he got torched on the same play twice and appeared to be thrown in the dog house.

Among all the disingenuous statements you've made this thread, this one tops the list. How many time, as a Pats fan, have you seen Troy Palomalu beaten by Brady on similar plays, at least 3 off the top of my head. So I guess you would have cut a multiple time all pro for getting beat on play action.

I find it incredibly funny to hear so called fans who want to put a lifetime label on a player for messing up a couple of plays in the first few games of his first season.

BTW- you comment about him being in BB's doghouse, just doesn't match the reality, since by the end of the season, Wilson's play put Patrick Chung on the bench and it was Wilson who was getting all the 3rd S snaps the last few months of the season. Snaps he evidently EARNED.

As to Harmon's pick. I would point out that 3 safeties were taken by the 20th pick of the 4th round. Clearly safety was on at least 3 teams minds going into that round. So if BB had Harmon rated ahead of those 3 players he would have had to get him with the 91st or risk losing him. So I'm getting tired of those who keep throwing out the premise that Harmon could have been easily picked in the 4th or 7th rounds just because some draft web site had an arbitrary rating for players.

The bottom line here is that Harmon had decent but average measurables, better than average college production, and off the chart intangibles, all of which adds to player who is usually picked in rounds 3-5
BB probably thought there would be a run on Safeties in the 4th round and and might have felt the need to reach a bit for him late in the 3rd

 

[ausbacker]

I simply don't understand what some people think Belichick did with the Harmon pick:

- Belichick knew for certain he could get Harmon with one of his 7th round picks but decided to take him 4 rounds earlier, intentionally "injuring" his team by spending more capital for a player than was required.

- Belichick had a number of similar ranked prospects at safety sitting at #91, certainly enough to last to their next pick at #102, but picked Harmon anyway and intentionally risked losing Boyce (Rams and Jags both picked WRs).

And these seem reasonable to people? How about I try one:

- Belichick had a fairly shallow draft board because this draft class is poor so he was targeting key aspects needed by the team. One of those was a speedy safety that can play centerfield and cover a lot of ground, but is smart enough to communicate and execute the needed coverage. The guy that meets this criteria best was Harmon. The Pats could get him in the middle rounds but risk losing him by the 7th (some late buzz on him plus Schiano could grab him for TB). When #91 rolls around, the Pats try to trade into 2014 but find no takers. Forced to pick, they only have a few guys left on their board (before the STers and projects late). Since they might try again to trade pick #102 into 2014 and be left with no picks until the 7th, Belichick decided to finish his to-do list for this draft class. This means that Boyce was either expendable (not a top priority) or there were a number of WRs that graded out similar for the Pats.

Doesn't that sound more reasonable? Go ahead and hammer Belichick for his evaluation of Harmon...but that would require you to analyze Harmon yourself to come up with negatives. Criticizing Belichick because he didn't follow a script created by anonymous scouts that may or may not have even rated Harmon seems a bit stupid.

It's a pretty good theory. Mine is this:

Belichick wants to draft a safety and a WR but doesn't want to be left scraping the barrel in the seventh round.

When picking at #91, there are more WRs than safeties left on his board. A number of the safeties picked after Harmon weren't a great fit and maybe not on the board

BB realises that he might be able to get Harmon later but doesn't want to risk waiting until the 7th because there are no guarantees at that point. He tries to trade back but there are no takers.

There are a number of WRs still available at #91 that are similar: Stedman Bailey, Josh Boyce, Kenny Stills, Ryan Swope. Some of these will still be available at #102.

so, unable to trade back and with less safeties than receivers on his board, the smart play is to take the safety at #91 and then take the best receiver on the board at #102 because there's greater choice.

Among all the disingenuous statements you've made this thread, this one tops the list. How many time, as a Pats fan, have you seen Troy Palomalu beaten by Brady on similar plays, at least 3 off the top of my head. So I guess you would have cut a multiple time all pro for getting beat on play action.

I find it incredibly funny to hear so called fans who want to put a lifetime label on a player for messing up a couple of plays in the first few games of his first season.

BTW- you comment about him being in BB's doghouse, just doesn't match the reality, since by the end of the season, Wilson's play put Patrick Chung on the bench and it was Wilson who was getting all the 3rd S snaps the last few months of the season. Snaps he evidently EARNED.

As to Harmon's pick. I would point out that 3 safeties were taken by the 20th pick of the 4th round. Clearly safety was on at least 3 teams minds going into that round. So if BB had Harmon rated ahead of those 3 players he would have had to get him with the 91st or risk losing him. So I'm getting tired of those who keep throwing out the premise that Harmon could have been easily picked in the 4th or 7th rounds just because some draft web site had an arbitrary rating for players.

The bottom line here is that Harmon had decent but average measurables, better than average college production, and off the chart intangibles, all of which adds to player who is usually picked in the 4th to sixth rounds.

With few avenues available to improve the team namely the draft, trades, free agency and UDFA it's as if some people believe that Belichick enjoys "wasting" components of one of the few avenues he has available to him to improve his team. Really, it's quite a remarkable mentality.

 

[mcmurtry86]

BTW- you comment about him being in BB's doghouse, just doesn't match the reality, since by the end of the season, Wilson's play put Patrick Chung on the bench and it was Wilson who was getting all the 3rd S snaps the last few months of the season. Snaps he evidently EARNED.

This is just as false as it was earlier this offseason when someone made this claim.

As the season came to a close, his playing time was pretty much nothing. Here are his snaps for the last 8 games (Thanksgiving through the AFCCG):

8/72
2/63
17/70
4/67
30/80
18/59
16/78
9/72


Total: 104/561

The only game where he saw somewhat significant time was Christmas Eve when McCourty moved back to CB and Wilson moved from the #4 to #3 S on the depth chart (by comparison, Chung logged 61/80 snaps).

 

[LetsGoPats36]

Familiarity breeds contempt.

After a handful of swings and misses with safeties, particularly in the middle rounds on players projected to go later, it shouldn't be hard to figure out why so many are rolling their eyes at this pick.

Guss Scott, Dex Reid, James Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, Tavon, Harmon

We don't know how Wilson and Harmon will turn out, but, BB hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to drafting safeties.

The closest to a success we've seen with one of the "headscratcher", "out of left field" safety picks was Eugene Wilson (who was a CB in college). Geno looked great for a couple years when he was lined up next to a dominant Rodney. That experiment ended up flaming out big time, as well.

Skepticism is okay.

 

[Major **********]

Familiarity breeds contempt.

After a handful of swings and misses with safeties, particularly in the middle rounds on players projected to go later, it shouldn't be hard to figure out why so many are rolling their eyes at this pick.

Guss Scott, Dex Reid, James Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, Tavon, Harmon

We don't know how Wilson and Harmon will turn out, but, BB hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to drafting safeties.

The closest to a success we've seen with one of the "headscratcher", "out of left field" safety picks was Eugene Wilson (who was a CB in college). Geno looked great for a couple years when he was lined up next to a dominant Rodney. That experiment ended up flaming out big time, as well.

Skepticism is okay.

Gino was not picked as a safety. He was picked as a corner. I believe he played corner the whole preseason. He was thrust into safety duty because BB/Pats FO missjudged the Milloy situation and also thought that Antwan Harris was an adequate back up. Harris ended up starting the first game of the season and BB made the switch to Wilson for the second game. The rest as they say is History.

 

[Ring 6]

My problem with the Patriot's draft philosophy is that they make a big issue out of not using any of the national scouting services, and grading players based on their own evaluation criteria.

How do they 'make a big issue' out of it? They simply use their own scouts instead of a service.

The purpose of that approach should be to exploit inefficiencies in the grading process that (just about) everyone else uses. This doesn't mean that you are going to grade every player differently than everyone else. Teams generally have access to the same information. For the top 50-75 players, the Patriots' grades should be in the same ballpark as everyone else's, with most of the difference based on scheme fits. They should not be taking moonshots with picks in the first few rounds of the draft. Wilson and Harmon fall into that category. Let other teams make those mistakes.

Who says they are mistakes? You are using a 'grade' which is just a prediction of where a player will be drafted made by someone who cannot get a job drafting players.
The people making the grades were wrong about these players, as they were trying to project where they were drafted and missed. Its like saying the lottery numbers were wrong because they didn't match what I said they would be.

The real objective should be to find players that are undervalued by the other scouting services and other teams, and to get these players cheap, i.e., in the later rounds of the draft or as UDFAs. Examples: Brandon Bolden, Alfonso Dennard, Justin Francis. It's important to have a good back end of the roster, for depth and salary cap reasons. However, if you keep missing with your second and third-round picks, you end up with a bunch of overachieving late-round draft picks and UDFAs. Kind of like our current defense.

The objective is to get the best players. Finding UDFAs is just a different part of the process.
Our defense last season had 6 1st round picks and 2 seconds and was 9th in the league.

 

[BradyManny]

I find it incredibly funny to hear so called fans who want to put a lifetime label on a player for messing up a couple of plays in the first few games of his first season.

BTW- you comment about him being in BB's doghouse, just doesn't match the reality, since by the end of the season, Wilson's play put Patrick Chung on the bench and it was Wilson who was getting all the 3rd S snaps the last few months of the season. Snaps he evidently EARNED.

Ken, calling Kontra into question as a fan is rather silly.

Look, I hope the pick turns out to be a good one, but all we can do now is trust in Belichick. Unless you've been DVRing Rutgers games all season, there's not much more to say. The praise of Mayock and Cosell go a long way and make me feel like Bill got this one right, but otherwise, we don't have enough exposure to this player to have a great read on the pick. He was that under-the-radar.

As for Tavon, he went from starter to dime player during the course of the year. It's not the trend we see in Patriot rookies who make a big leap in year 2, which is why some of us were surprised when we started hearing the Pats were OK with their safety personnel going into the offseason. After investments in free agency and the draft, we can see that was a smokescreen. Which is good. Tavon could certainly make that jump in year 2, but they cannot count on it.

 

[manxman2601]

Ken, calling Kontra into question as a fan is rather silly.

Look, I hope the pick turns out to be a good one, but all we can do now is trust in Belichick. Unless you've been DVRing Rutgers games all season, there's not much more to say. The praise of Mayock and Cosell go a long way and make me feel like Bill got this one right, but otherwise, we don't have enough exposure to this player to have a great read on the pick. He was that under-the-radar.

As for Tavon, he went from starter to dime player during the course of the year. It's not the trend we see in Patriot rookies who make a big leap in year 2, which is why some of us were surprised when we started hearing the Pats were OK with their safety personnel going into the offseason. After investments in free agency and the draft, we can see that was a smokescreen. Which is good. Tavon could certainly make that jump in year 2, but they cannot count on it.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems pretty clear to me that Harmon is Mccourty's backup. We don't have a safety on the team that plays well as a single deep safety whereas Harmon played that all the time last season.

 

[Avenger]

Wilson played a lot due to injuries at the start of the season, so it's not exactly proof the team though he regressed. I was down at Rutgers last weekend for the spring game and everybody down there though he was a good pickup for the Pats, multiple even said he was better than Ryan, who was projected as a 2-3 round prospect.

 

[Spiral]

Seriously?

Pats starting defense:

Front 7
RDE Chandler Jones 1st Round
NT Vince Wilfork 1st Round
DT Tommy Kelly UDFA FA
LDE Rob Ninkovich 5th Round FA
OLB Jerrod Mayo 1st Round
MLB Brandon Spikes 2nd Round
OLB Dont'a Hightower 1st Round

Secondary
LCB Aqib Talib 1st round TRADE
RCB Alphonso Dennard 7th round
FS Devin McCourty 1st round
SS Adrian Wilson 3rd round FA

Nearly ALL of the Pats homegrown starters on defense are 1st/2nd round picks. The only exception is Dennard who was a 7th round steal who flashes talent equivalent to a 1st/2nd rounder. The rest are free agents. I count SIX 1st rounders on that defensive unit and EIGHT out of ELEVEN who were taken in the top THREE rounds of the draft.

PS As for Harmon? Sure he might be a bust. And he might be the next Stevan Ridley. I remember how much hatred was uncorked towards that kid on draft night. BUT he proved everyone of his HATERS wrong. A LOT of people here posted their 'disgust' that we 'wasted' a 3rd round on 'another RB'.

I think you've highlighted the problem--the Patriots have done fairly well with defensive players picked in the first round. Meriweather is one exception and Mc Courty is possibly another. He was drafted to play corner and failed at that position. But you can't build a team with your #1 draft picks. It's their draft record in the 2nd-5th rounds that has caused this defense to be in the bottom third of the league.

 

[JackBauer]

I think you've highlighted the problem--the Patriots have done fairly well with defensive players picked in the first round. Meriweather is one exception and Mc Courty is possibly another. He was drafted to play corner and failed at that position. But you can't build a team with your #1 draft picks. It's their draft record in the 2nd-5th rounds that has caused this defense to be in the bottom third of the league.

And now McCourty is looking like one of the better/best FS in the league. I'd hardly call that a failure, much less put him on par with Meriweather.

 

[ivanvamp]

I started writing a long post about Harmon, but then I read this blog post about him. This is way better than what I could have written so I'll just link it. It's a really good article and well worth everyone's time to read.

Dave Breaks Down Film: On Safeties, Draft Surprises, and Duron Harmon

 

[BradyManny]

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems pretty clear to me that Harmon is Mccourty's backup. We don't have a safety on the team that plays well as a single deep safety whereas Harmon played that all the time last season.

I think you are 100% right.

If trends continue, the Patriots will continue to play predominantly 1-deep safety now that they are endowed with a legitimate CB group. McCourty is a beast at the position.

Gregory was at least moderately out of place being forced into the guy who played closer to the line, in the box, and covering TEs. Maybe he'd be OK as a centerfielder, but he's overpriced as a 2nd guy there. Harmon can fill that role much cheaper, and maybe fit in the dime somewhere. I would envision Adrian Wilson and Tavon will battle for the spot Gregory filled last year.

Wilson also might be seen as an LB in the nickel D, something Bill has tried twice with Williams & Lynch.

While cutting Gregory this offseason is not as great cap-wise as next, I don't see him sticking at his price, considering the redundancy of skillsets we've acquired with other players.

 

[AzPatsFan]

1 ~ Nothing against drafting Wilson, though I wouldn't've made that move.

2 ~ My Problem with the move was wasting a 2nd Rounder on'm. :bricks:

3 ~ LaVonte David?? My Super Binky?? He would've come in very handy, last Year.

The best way to assuage your purely athletic drafting prowess is to close yur eyes and imagine the Pats picked Dennard in the 2nd, and T Wilson in the 7th. There isn't that much better?

Meanwhile you will be much happier if you modify your drafting acumen on Safeties to include leadership, play diagnosis, and setting the Defense skills, as equial to or more important than, pure athletic skill.

It aso explains the Sanders, T Wilson, D Harmon, A Wilson and S Gregory acquisitions. It also explains why athletically gifted Safeties Meriwether and Chung are no longer Patriots...

 

[Kontradiction]

Among all the disingenuous statements you've made this thread, this one tops the list.

Literally nothing I've said has been disingenuous.

How many time, as a Pats fan, have you seen Troy Palomalu beaten by Brady on similar plays, at least 3 off the top of my head. So I guess you would have cut a multiple time all pro for getting beat on play action.

I'm failing to see the distinction, for one. For another, I don't see how this poor comparison makes anything I said about Wilson false.

I find it incredibly funny to hear so called fans

Here we see Page 1, Play 1 of the Homer Playbook in full display. On this forum alone, I have over 21,000 posts and have been posting here for seven years now. Clearly I'm not a fan. Double bricks for you...

:bricks::bricks:

who want to put a lifetime label on a player for messing up a couple of plays in the first few games of his first season.

At what point in my last post do you see me putting a lifetime label on Wilson? I called it as I saw it. People ranted and raved about his good instincts last season, yet he got toasted twice by the same play in close succession. Now, he could improve in year two. I hope he does. But that doesn't change the fact that he failed to identify his man on two of the same exact plays then was rarely seen after that. If that isn't the dog house, then I don't know what is. Further, I very much look forward to you, as a true fan, educating me on the subject.

BTW- you comment about him being in BB's doghouse, just doesn't match the reality, since by the end of the season, Wilson's play put Patrick Chung on the bench and it was Wilson who was getting all the 3rd S snaps the last few months of the season. Snaps he evidently EARNED.

Come on, Ken. You clearly know that this is false. The addition of Talib and subsequent ability to move McCourty to safety put Chung on the bench. Not the imaginary outstanding play of Tavon Wilson.

As to Harmon's pick. I would point out that 3 safeties were taken by the 20th pick of the 4th round. Clearly safety was on at least 3 teams minds going into that round. So if BB had Harmon rated ahead of those 3 players he would have had to get him with the 91st or risk losing him. So I'm getting tired of those who keep throwing out the premise that Harmon could have been easily picked in the 4th or 7th rounds just because some draft web site had an arbitrary rating for players.

This is the very definition of a reach.

The bottom line here is that Harmon had decent but average measurables, better than average college production, and off the chart intangibles, all of which adds to player who is usually picked in rounds 3-5
BB probably thought there would be a run on Safeties in the 4th round and and might have felt the need to reach a bit for him late in the 3rd

Let's take a look at that run on safeties between the time after Harmon was drafted all the way up to the 7th round...

Player - Projected/Went
1. Duke Williams - 5/4
2. Shemarko Thomas - 3/4
3. Phillip Thomas - 3/4
4. Earl Wolff - 6/5
5. Jonathan Meeks - 5/5
6. Cooper Taylor - 4/5
7. Josh Evans - 4/6
8. Jamoris Slaughter - UFA/6
9. Bacarri Rambo - 4/6
10. John Boyett - 7/6

Out of ten, four of these players were reaches and only one, like Harmon, was ranked as a UFA. That previously ranked UFA went in the 6th. If Bill wanted Harmon, he probably could have gotten him in the 6th at the very earliest, or more than likely the 7th without reaching into the third. Other than that, the other safeties selected between the end of round 3 and beginning of round 7 were either taken after where they were projected, or right where they were projected. In all, this line of reasoning doesn't excuse a reach.

 

[DarrylS]

This reminds me of deja vu all over again when we used a ton of bandwidth on Tavon Wilson last year... for whom the jury is still out.

 

[Sicilian]

I started writing a long post about Harmon, but then I read this blog post about him. This is way better than what I could have written so I'll just link it. It's a really good article and well worth everyone's time to read.

Dave Breaks Down Film: On Safeties, Draft Surprises, and Duron Harmon

Good read, and sums up my feelings on draft "reaches" perfectly. Without having inside knowledge on all 32 teams' draft boards, the only way we can really judge a pick is by how they're playing after a few years in the league. Everything else is just wild speculation.

 

[BelichickFan]

If Bill wanted Harmon, he probably could have gotten him in the 6th at the very earliest, or more than likely the 7th without reaching into the third.

If all the teams draft from Mel Kiper's or Pro Football Weekly's book then you'd be right. As they don't . . . how the hell do you know ?

Did I like the pick ? No. But I'm willing to trust Bill on this. Other "reaches" in our past - Branch, Vollmer, Mankins - have worked out well. Wilson is yet TBD.

In one of the books - War Room I think - Bill talked about taking Vollmer "too high" and said something to the effect that sometimes you know you're taking a guy too high but you get to the point where you'd prefer to do that than lose him (it's been a year and a half since I read it, my appologies for anything there that I didn't get right). Obviously he reached the point where he was worried he would lose him.