Welcome to the New England Patriots, Safety Duron Harmon

[Kontradiction]

If all the teams draft from Mel Kiper's or Pro Football Weekly's book then you'd be right. As they don't . . . how the hell do you know ?

I'm not going to claim to know for sure but I can take a look at how the other safeties were drafted (detailed in the post that you just quoted) and take an educated guess. There was only one other UDFA on that list, and he was taken in the 6th.

Did I like the pick ? No. But I'm willing to trust Bill on this. Other "reaches" in our past - Branch, Vollmer, Mankins - have worked out well. Wilson is yet TBD.

Yes, some of his reaches have worked out. Most of them have not worked out as well (DaBruinz posted a detailed list the other day). Can't deny that. I'm also willing to give Harmon the definite of the doubt and hope he can become a contributor. That doesn't change the fact that he could have more than likely been had much, much later on.

 

[condon84]

I have a buddy who went to Rutgers and watch all their games. He doesn't get why the Pats picked Harmon that high. Harmon was a solid player for Rutgers, but my buddy didn't see an NFL starter when he watched him play.

He said it's similar to the Tyrone McKenzie pick a few years ago in that while McKenzie was a solid player for SF, he wasn't really an NFL starter.

This pick is meh. Hopefully a solid ST.

 

[manxman2601]

I have a buddy who went to Rutgers and watch all their games. He doesn't get why the Pats picked Harmon that high. Harmon was a solid player for Rutgers, but my buddy didn't see an NFL starter when he watched him play.

He said it's similar to the Tyrone McKenzie pick a few years ago in that while McKenzie was a solid player for SF, he wasn't really an NFL starter.

This pick is meh. Hopefully a solid ST.

It's because he wasn't a playmaker due to his role. He played a long way off the LOS and rarely had to face much in the deep passing game because of the QBs he faced. As for an NFL starter, I doubt he was drafted for that. Before the draft started, the Patriots were saying this was a good depth draft but not one for finding starters.

“It’s going to be very hard for someone who gets drafted to come in and start on our team. You never know … maybe there are 2-3 players who have an opportunity to do that,” he said. “The NFL is a business about quality depth management; I’ve been saying that since the beginning. If you want to be successful year in and year out in this business, you have to have depth and you have to have a plan. It doesn’t happen by remote control.”

Kraft: Draft more about building depth - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Maybe they drafted Harmon because he was the best safety in the mid-rounds who could backup McCourty and his specific role; something we were lacking on the roster pre-draft.

 

[BradyManny]

Maybe they drafted Harmon because he was the best safety in the mid-rounds who could backup McCourty and his specific role; something we were lacking on the roster pre-draft.

It's a good point. I like this line of thinking.

It feels like we all want BB to swing for the fences with every pick. And like most teams, we do take plenty high risk/reward guys pretty much anywhere after round 1.

But if Harmon can come in and be a good backup FS and contribute on ST, for the price of a 3rd round pick, you take that ROI. After seeing Maurice Cole get torched in the AFCCG, a pick like this might be about addressing the middle class of the roster.

I'd think of Logan Ryan the same way. He can replace Cole, hopefully be just as good on ST, but potentially way better on D. Ryan might never replace Talib as our #1, but there's big value in true four down players for this team.

 

[manxman2601]

It's a good point. I like this line of thinking.

It feels like we all want BB to swing for the fences with every pick. And like most teams, we do take plenty high risk/reward guys pretty much anywhere after round 1.

But if Harmon can come in and be a good backup FS and contribute on ST, for the price of a 3rd round pick, you take that ROI. After seeing Maurice Cole get torched in the AFCCG, a pick like this might be about addressing the middle class of the roster.

I'd think of Logan Ryan the same way. He can replace Cole, hopefully be just as good on ST, but potentially way better on D. Ryan might never replace Talib as our #1, but there's big value in true four down players for this team.

I can't remember the exact quote, but paraphrasing: "It's not about accumulating talent, it's about building a roster".

 

[ivanvamp]

The way I see the pick is this: BB must have liked him enough so that he didn't want to take a chance on losing out on him. We think that he would have not have been drafted for a couple more rounds, so maybe BB could have waited. But we don't know that. You let a guy go if you think there's a good chance he'll be around, and if you're willing to risk losing him in case you're wrong. Well, obviously BB either thought there would be a good chance he'd be gone, or he liked Harmon enough such that he didn't want to risk losing him at that point. It's pretty simple, really.

And given that it is objectively and demonstrably true that the Patriots have been among the very best in the NFL since 2000 at this drafting thing, I think BB deserves the benefit of the doubt here.

 

[Sicilian]

The way I see the pick is this: BB must have liked him enough so that he didn't want to take a chance on losing out on him. We think that he would have not have been drafted for a couple more rounds, so maybe BB could have waited. But we don't know that. You let a guy go if you think there's a good chance he'll be around, and if you're willing to risk losing him in case you're wrong. Well, obviously BB either thought there would be a good chance he'd be gone, or he liked Harmon enough such that he didn't want to risk losing him at that point. It's pretty simple, really.

And given that it is objectively and demonstrably true that the Patriots have been among the very best in the NFL since 2000 at this drafting thing, I think BB deserves the benefit of the doubt here.

Also bear in mind that they had the 102nd pick soon thereafter, and may have been targeting (at that point in the draft) Harmon and Boyce with those picks. Given they had no other picks until late in the 7th after that, they may said, "We want both these players. Chances are they'll both be there at 102, but NOT at 226. So we're going to take them with our next two picks, and because we already have a WR taken high, we're going to prioritize the safety."

May not be 100% how it went down, but would it surprise anyone if that was the case?

 

[patfanken]

Kontra - let me ask you a favor. If you haven't already done so, would you please read this very compelling article that Ivancamp posted earlier on this page. THEN tell me that you still think BB could have drafted him in the 7th round.

Dave Breaks Down Film: On Safeties, Draft Surprises, and Duron Harmon

In my mind this is the most compelling part of the article

"So if Duron Harmon has good tape, good production, good measurables, good size, and played in a good program that does a good job preparing prospects for the pro game, why is he a ridiculous pick at the end of the 3rd round?"

Your entire case is based on the fact that all the mockers, draft boards, and draft "gurus" had him Harmon rated as someone who is a 7th round to UDFA kind of player. Yet the every stat and tape would lead one to believe that he was every bit as good as the 3 safeties who went very soon after Harmon was drafted.

Wouldn't you agree that the main reason for his drop in the amatuer draft ratings was more a factor of his not being invited to the combine than any kind of lack of skill, athleticism, or on field production.

BTW- after reading your post rebutting my contention that you were being disingenuous, I would like to say that I no longer think you were being disingenuous. I still think you are wrong, but you opinion is an honest one. I over stepped in my original post, and would really be interested in your assessment of this article.

 

[Kontradiction]

Kontra - let me ask you a favor. If you haven't already done so, would you please read this very compelling article that Ivancamp posted earlier on this page. THEN tell me that you still think BB could have drafted him in the 7th round.

Dave Breaks Down Film: On Safeties, Draft Surprises, and Duron Harmon

In my mind this is the most compelling part of the article

Based upon what I'm seeing in regard to the other safeties and where they were taken vs. where they were projected, yeah... I believe that Belchick probably could have taken him in the seventh. Yeah, I understand that Harmon has measurables and smarts. He went to Rutgers. According to PatsFans.com, I've been made to understand that he made Ronnie Lott in his prime look like a rookie when he jumped that one route in that one practice. Still, he wasn't invited to the combine at all. He was rated by God and everyone as a UDFA before the draft. There was no news and still isn't to this day of him being a late riser for some reason. Then you look at a jury of his peers. You see, for the most part, people going either where they were supposed to go or later than they were supposed to go. This includes players from tougher conferences such as the SEC as well. IMO, there's no reason to believe he wouldn't have been available later on.

He was a reach. Sorry to break it to you, Ken. But Belichick reached. He's done it before and sometimes it has worked where other times, it has not. All I'm hearing to back him up is that, well *maybe* another team was interested and *maybe* Belichick was worried that he'd miss out. I don't see any evidence to back that up so I'm going to the only evidence that I know... what happened with a jury of his peers.

 

[gobesmug]

Based upon what I'm seeing in regard to the other safeties and where they were taken vs. where they were projected, yeah... I believe that Belchick probably could have taken him in the seventh. Yeah, I understand that Harmon has measurables and smarts. He went to Rutgers. According to PatsFans.com, I've been made to understand that he made Ronnie Lott in his prime look like a rookie when he jumped that one route in that one practice. Still, he wasn't invited to the combine at all. He was rated by God and everyone as a UDFA before the draft. There was no news and still isn't to this day of him being a late riser for some reason. Then you look at a jury of his peers. You see, for the most part, people going either where they were supposed to go or later than they were supposed to go. This includes players from tougher conferences such as the SEC as well. IMO, there's no reason to believe he wouldn't have been available later on.

He was a reach. Sorry to break it to you, Ken. But Belichick reached. He's done it before and sometimes it has worked where other times, it has not. All I'm hearing to back him up is that, well *maybe* another team was interested and *maybe* Belichick was worried that he'd miss out. I don't see any evidence to back that up so I'm going to the only evidence that I know... what happened with a jury of his peers.

Please show us a link that shows in details the other 31 teams draft boards, and on the boards has the safety rankings, with all 31 teams having Harmon ranked as a late 7th round/UDFA. Otherwise you are speaking completely from your arse when you say Harmon would have been available in the 7th. If you don't like the pick then give an intelligent reason as to why. Stating he is a 7th based upon the media, is the equivalent of the witch hunts of old.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Based upon what I'm seeing in regard to the other safeties and where they were taken vs. where they were projected, yeah... I believe that Belchick probably could have taken him in the seventh. Yeah, I understand that Harmon has measurables and smarts. He went to Rutgers. According to PatsFans.com, I've been made to understand that he made Ronnie Lott in his prime look like a rookie when he jumped that one route in that one practice. Still, he wasn't invited to the combine at all. He was rated by God and everyone as a UDFA before the draft. There was no news and still isn't to this day of him being a late riser for some reason. Then you look at a jury of his peers. You see, for the most part, people going either where they were supposed to go or later than they were supposed to go. This includes players from tougher conferences such as the SEC as well. IMO, there's no reason to believe he wouldn't have been available later on.

He was a reach. Sorry to break it to you, Ken. But Belichick reached. He's done it before and sometimes it has worked where other times, it has not. All I'm hearing to back him up is that, well *maybe* another team was interested and *maybe* Belichick was worried that he'd miss out. I don't see any evidence to back that up so I'm going to the only evidence that I know... what happened with a jury of his peers.

Ultimately, we really can't know. Maybe the Bucs were going to take him, but we just don't know. Belichick definitely went against all of the pundits, and it's a little alarming that a guy from a top-25 didn't get invited to the combine, but who knows, **** happens. At this point, I'm really not sure what anyone hopes to accomplish by continuing to debate this.

The general consensus is that he reached, and the information that we'd have to know to determine that he didn't is currently not known to us. Those are the facts, and everything beyond that is just opinion and/or conjecture.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Mike Reiss today sheds some light on how the Harmon pick may have been made by BB against the advice of his own scouts. (Remember Reiss has great access to the Patriots and is very very careful with his words. He is NOT instinctively critical or outspoken when it comes to BB. I would instead characterize him as usually deferential and cautious with anything like criticism).

"My best guess is that it's Bill Belichick looking at things differently from most teams. Part of that opinion is based on talking with people from other teams. In the case of Harmon, I also wouldn't be surprised if Belichick viewed things differently from many on his own staff, but as the personnel chief, that's his right. Knowing that Belichick stresses the motto "do your job" and everyone should know/execute their clearly defined role, I just wonder if anyone in the room stops Belichick before making a pick like Tavon Wilson or Duron Harmon and says, "Bill, we could probably get this guy a little later and get some better value elsewhere." The Harmon pick was a real outlier, and with the limited information I have, comes across as something that would have been done unilaterally more than as a consensus. (emphasis added)
New England Patriots Mailbag: Second-guessing Bill Belichick's draft - ESPN Boston

At another point, Reiss calls the decision a "Strange one."

Maybe its time for an intervention when it comes to BB's defensive picks. Here's Reiss again:
"Here's the bottom-line thought: If the Patriots' defense doesn't turn a more decisive corner, and we're seeing some of the same struggles in 2013 as we've seen in recent years, it will be a big disappointment. Some hard questions would have to be asked."

Question is when these questions will be asked and by whom.

 

[tonyto3690]

It's just really disappointing because this all but spells out how they feel about T.Wilson from last years draft where it was considered a major reach and has been a massive disappointment.

I'm just praying this isn't going to be the same story. Two big head scratchers that were big reaches.

 

[Kontradiction]

Please show us a link that shows in details the other 31 teams draft boards, and on the boards has the safety rankings, with all 31 teams having Harmon ranked as a late 7th round/UDFA. Otherwise you are speaking completely from your arse when you say Harmon would have been available in the 7th. If you don't like the pick then give an intelligent reason as to why. Stating he is a 7th based upon the media, is the equivalent of the witch hunts of old.

Actually, if that's the case then everyone is talking from their arse. My contention is that he probably would have been available later considering other safeties in his class were either taken where they were supposed to go or taken later for the most part. On top of that, there weren't any massive reaches in the draft with the only other projected UDFA going in the 6th (where I would have been fine with Harmon).

Further, your initial challenge to me can easily be flipped on it's head. Show the other 31 teams boards where another team reached tremendously for Harmon. Ahhh, what a pointless exercise.

 

[JackBauer]

It's just really disappointing because this all but spells out how they feel about T.Wilson from last years draft where it was considered a major reach and has been a massive disappointment.

I'm just praying this isn't going to be the same story. Two big head scratchers that were big reaches.

I don't see how Harmon has any bearing on Wilson in any way, really.

 

[gobesmug]

It's just really disappointing because this all but spells out how they feel about T.Wilson from last years draft where it was considered a major reach and has been a massive disappointment.

I'm just praying this isn't going to be the same story. Two big head scratchers that were big reaches.

That's definitely a concern I have. Hopefully they view Wilson as the in the box type and will compete with and back up A Wilson, and Harmon as the deep cover guy to back up Mccourty.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Please show us a link that shows in details the other 31 teams draft boards, and on the boards has the safety rankings, with all 31 teams having Harmon ranked as a late 7th round/UDFA. Otherwise you are speaking completely from your arse when you say Harmon would have been available in the 7th. If you don't like the pick then give an intelligent reason as to why. Stating he is a 7th based upon the media, is the equivalent of the witch hunts of old.

That's not really fair. Nobody knows for certain, and nobody has claimed to. That said, there's a lot more evidence that Harmon would have been available with the Pats' next pick than there is that he wouldn't have been. Even if Schiano was waiting to grab him, the Bucs didn't have a pick in between those two Patriot picks, so he would have had to trade up, which means he would have had to suspect that the Pats were going to take Harmon.

You're right that we don't know, but that applies both ways. You also can't hand-wave it away as "another team might have taken him so that's that". It's a valid question to ask.

That said, unless we learn something new about all of this, this point has pretty much been debated to its natural death. Time to just wait and see what happens.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It's just really disappointing because this all but spells out how they feel about T.Wilson from last years draft where it was considered a major reach and has been a massive disappointment.

I'm just praying this isn't going to be the same story. Two big head scratchers that were big reaches.

I still don't think the book is closed on TWilson, although the Harmon pick doesn't inspire any confidence in him. Most players improve a lot between their first and second years, and it looked like Tavon was athletic enough to get the job done and then some last year. He made some inexcusable mental mistakes, but he's also had plenty of time for those to be coached out of him. I think it makes sense to see how he's responded before abandoning him to the scrap heap.

If he doesn't show significant improvement as early as training camp and preseason, though, then you can probably write him off.

 

[Avenger]

the reality is that none of us knows what happens behind the scenes. NFL teams have much more information than us, the media draftniks focus on the combine and the players invited to it, which is understandable, they do not have the resources to go to all the pro days with scouts like teams do.

 

[Avenger]

That's not really fair. Nobody knows for certain, and nobody has claimed to. That said, there's a lot more evidence that Harmon would have been available with the Pats' next pick than there is that he wouldn't have been. Even if Schiano was waiting to grab him, the Bucs didn't have a pick in between those two Patriot picks, so he would have had to trade up, which means he would have had to suspect that the Pats were going to take Harmon.

You're right that we don't know, but that applies both ways. You also can't hand-wave it away as "another team might have taken him so that's that". It's a valid question to ask.

That said, unless we learn something new about all of this, this point has pretty much been debated to its natural death. Time to just wait and see what happens.

would you have been happier if Boyce was drafted where Harmon was and Harmon where Boyce was? the picks were not too far apart.