Week 16 'Expert' Picks

[ausbacker]

Hopefully the Patriots can pull some 3 and outs (starting on the 20) on the Ravens given they only need 30 or so yards of offense each drive before Tucker's in Field Goal range.

 

[supafly]

I bet KT does well. They said he has been moving well, same with Dobson. Going to need them. They have to step up.

Yeah, the reports have been much better regarding Thompkins this week, as opposed to last.

The next question would be how the team feels his chances of contributing this week would be vs BAL's specific kind of defense. He's had some issues in the past not being able to beat man coverage and running poor routes. I'm wondering if Dobson, Edelman, and Amendola aren't the best way to go with our chances of keeping a TE in to block being pretty high?

 

[Soadisthebest]

jones > Amendola

Jones sucks. He certainly isn't better than Amendola.

 

[supafly]

Jones sucks. He certainly isn't better than Amendola.

I agree with you. He certainly isn't a better all around player than Amendola, although he does have some better traits in certain areas such as speed.

I don't necessarily think he sucks myself. I think he is a pretty good special teams player who is seeming to grow into a playmaker. His deep threat is something to be concerned about, as is his ability for YACs.

 

[supafly]

Hopefully the Patriots can pull some 3 and outs (starting on the 20) on the Ravens given they only need 30 or so yards of offense each drive before Tucker's in Field Goal range.

LOL--yeah really...

A couple/few first downs and they're already in FG range, although that is probably a bit different when they play away from the dome. I will be assuming that Tucker can belt a 55 yarder on his home turf at any point in time though.

 

[RIpats88]

Yeah, the reports have been much better regarding Thompkins this week, as opposed to last.

The next question would be how the team feels his chances of contributing this week would be vs BAL's specific kind of defense. He's had some issues in the past not being able to beat man coverage and running poor routes. I'm wondering if Dobson, Edelman, and Amendola aren't the best way to go with our chances of keeping a TE in to block being pretty high?

I think dobson has more size and athletic ability to bully his man guarding him.

Thompkins gets opem more off his release off the line...I think they can both help but I see us going more dobson

 

[Rob0729]

I am getting a little tired of hearing "the Ravens are 4-0 and getting hot" while the Pats are struggling. The Pats are 3-1. The ONLY DIFFERENCE between the two records is the Ravens were able to score on their last drive this week (granted it was a 61 yard field goal indoors) and the Pats didn't.

Let's look at the Ravens' four wins:

Beat the Jets 19-3
Beat the Steelers 22-20 when the Steelers fail to convert the two point conversion with one minute left in the game
Beat the Vikings 29-26 When Flacco throws a TD pass with 4 seconds left
Beat Detriot 18-16 when they kick a 61 yard field goal

The Ravens are squeaking by some bad teams. The Pats have last second wins against the Texans and Browns and they are struggling and the Ravens have last second wins against the Vikings and Steelers and they are building momentum for another Super Bowl run. How does that work? How is barely beating bad teams better than barely beating other bad teams.

 

[Sicilian]

I am getting a little tired of hearing "the Ravens are 4-0 and getting hot" while the Pats are struggling. The Pats are 3-1. The ONLY DIFFERENCE between the two records is the Ravens were able to score on their last drive this week (granted it was a 61 yard field goal indoors) and the Pats didn't.

Let's look at the Ravens' four wins:

Beat the Jets 19-3
Beat the Steelers 22-20 when the Steelers fail to convert the two point conversion with one minute left in the game
Beat the Vikings 29-26 When Flacco throws a TD pass with 4 seconds left
Beat Detriot 18-16 when they kick a 61 yard field goal

The Ravens are squeaking by some bad teams. The Pats have last second wins against the Texans and Browns and they are struggling and the Ravens have last second wins against the Vikings and Steelers and they are building momentum for another Super Bowl run. How does that work? How is barely beating bad teams better than barely beating other bad teams.

Because prior to those last four games, the Pats were 7-3, and the Ravens were 4-6. It's more about what they're doing versus where they were. The same thing happened prior to Super Bowl 42. The stories were the Patriots were on the decline while the Giants were on the rise, despite the fact that the Pats were still winning their playoff games by more than the Giants were. It's because for the Pats that year, winning by 10 was considered a tight game.

Terrible example I know, considering what happened next.

 

[Rob0729]

Because prior to those last four games, the Pats were 7-3, and the Ravens were 4-6. It's more about what they're doing versus where they were. The same thing happened prior to Super Bowl 42. The stories were the Patriots were on the decline while the Giants were on the rise, despite the fact that the Pats were still winning their playoff games by more than the Giants were. It's because for the Pats that year, winning by 10 was considered a tight game.

Terrible example I know, considering what happened next.

So the Pats go from 7-3 to 10-4 and it sign of disaster and the Ravens go from 4-6 to 8-6 and are now a favorite to win the AFC? How does that make sense? Again, the Pats are 3-1 over the last four games. Not 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4.

And I don't see the Super Bowl reference with the Pats and Giants. The Pats made the Super Bowl and were leading the game with little over a minute left. The storyline now is after one loss the Pats may not even win their division and may not even get into the playoffs and the Ravens are now ready to roll through the entire AFC.

 

[Sicilian]

So the Pats go from 7-3 to 10-4 and it sign of disaster and the Ravens go from 4-6 to 8-6 and are now a favorite to win the AFC? How does that make sense? Again, the Pats are 3-1 over the last four games. Not 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4.

And I don't see the Super Bowl reference with the Pats and Giants. The Pats made the Super Bowl and were leading the game with little over a minute left. The storyline now is after one loss the Pats may not even win their division and may not even get into the playoffs and the Ravens are now ready to roll through the entire AFC.

I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying that's how the general perception is usually done. It happens all the time.

 

[PatsFan2]

i disagree, i think they are pretty even across the board.

Brady > Flacco
Pitta > whoever we start at tight end
Vereen > a banged up ray rice
jones > Amendola
Edlemen > torry smith
Add in dobson and thompkins if they play > do the ravens even have more then 2 receivers?

I put our o over their o all day

Defense ray rice cant run, so we shouldn't get toasted on the front 7 talib on torrey smith, Mccourty leaning towards jones side

Blitz all night,

Pass the bong please in Bold, that couldn't be further from the truth.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Jones sucks. He certainly isn't better than Amendola.

Hes the type of player that can burn the pats. His speed will be a factor. If Talib is on smith then dennard gets him. Dennard had a HORRIBLE half vs hartline...and hartline sucks

 

[supafly]

So the Pats go from 7-3 to 10-4 and it sign of disaster and the Ravens go from 4-6 to 8-6 and are now a favorite to win the AFC? How does that make sense? Again, the Pats are 3-1 over the last four games. Not 2-2, 1-3, or 0-4.

And I don't see the Super Bowl reference with the Pats and Giants. The Pats made the Super Bowl and were leading the game with little over a minute left. The storyline now is after one loss the Pats may not even win their division and may not even get into the playoffs and the Ravens are now ready to roll through the entire AFC.

I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying that's how the general perception is usually done. It happens all the time.

I think the answer to the question would lie in the fact that the Pats had trailed in 6/7 previous games, and either lost or had to come back against mostly bad teams (with the exception of DEN and the loss at CAR). In other words, they really haven't been playing good ball for a long while either.

It's going to be easier to look past the specific ways that the Ravens have won lately considering that they were 4-6, and have won 5/6 and 4 in a row to come from nowhere and possibly win their division outright. The general perception, right or wrong, is that the Ravens are playing better football right now. On top of that, there's always a soft spot for fans and the media for teams that get hot this time of year, especially when they do it on defense, and even more when they constantly rattle or beat the team they're about to face. Brady is 8 TD/10 INT in the past six games, with a 6.2 ypa--which obviously points to struggling vs this team.

Of course, there's the aspect of Baltimore being very tough at home too, as they have a 5/6 winning percentage in the month of December at M & T stadium.

 

[supafly]

Hes the type of player that can burn the pats. His speed will be a factor. If Talib is on smith then dennard gets him. Dennard had a HORRIBLE half vs hartline...and hartline sucks

One thing to remember is that Arrington actually did an exceptional job on Torrey Smith in the AFCCG, so it's possible that Belichick decides to go with Arrington again on Smith, rather than Talib.

That would leave Talib for Jacoby Jones, and Dennard for Marlon Brown, depending on how/when the Ravens line up 3 wide. I think BAL is going to run it a lot with Rice though, who has looked better lately and is still more than capable of easily beating this putrid run defense. I think the key is still going to be stopping Ray Rice and scoring on their defense.

The point in the whole discussion though, as you say, is that ANY receiver in the league has the capacity to have a few key plays including a TD vs this shoddy defense, and that's a damn shame. I don't discount any receiver anymore after witnessing the pathetic options on the NYJ offense who made us look awful, even if they haven't done anything all year.

 

[Joker]

Flacco has a bad wheel and Pitta is back to full health...I'm more worried about the TE coverage on intermediate routes than the usual Flacco buzz bombs sideline deep.

 

[supafly]

Flacco has a bad wheel and Pitta is back to full health...I'm more worried about the TE coverage on intermediate routes than the usual Flacco buzz bombs sideline deep.

I think stopping Rice and preventing these kinds of throws that you describe are going to be the gameplan, Joker; especially if we end up battling in a rain soaked field with potential for delays etc as they are predicting.

 

[JMC00]

Only people I saw that picked the Pats on the pregame shows were

Howie Long, Michael Strahan, Mike Ditka, Kurt Warner, and Steve Mariucci

 

[Rob0729]

One thing to remember is that Arrington actually did an exceptional job on Torrey Smith in the AFCCG, so it's possible that Belichick decides to go with Arrington again on Smith, rather than Talib.

That would leave Talib for Jacoby Jones, and Dennard for Marlon Brown, depending on how/when the Ravens line up 3 wide. I think BAL is going to run it a lot with Rice though, who has looked better lately and is still more than capable of easily beating this putrid run defense. I think the key is still going to be stopping Ray Rice and scoring on their defense.

The point in the whole discussion though, as you say, is that ANY receiver in the league has the capacity to have a few key plays including a TD vs this shoddy defense, and that's a damn shame. I don't discount any receiver anymore after witnessing the pathetic options on the NYJ offense who made us look awful, even if they haven't done anything all year.

Nah! Perception was not the reality with the Ravens. They were what we saw today. They are an awful offense and good defense barely getting by a lot of bad teams. They weren't playing better football, they were just scraping by against subpar teams in different ways.