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We Agree That We Need an OLB and a S.

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mgteich, Mar 30, 2009.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We have four Day One picks. Almost all of us have us drafting an OLB and a S with two of the picks. Most of us have a backup OL or two in the top 100 (this need could be met in the 3rd and 4th rounds).

    This is pretty substantial agreement. However, we also have great room to disagree.
    ================================================

    For example, we could reasonably meet the above needs with an OLB at 34 and a safety at 57, leaving us MANY, MANY options for the 23rd and the 47th pick.

    If you knew that we had met our OLB, S, OG, and OT needs as noted above, how would you use 23 and 47?
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    It's along the lines of what I have said, if we think we can get an OLB we like at 2a and a Safety we like at 2b, and I think both are true, that leaves #23 to take a guy we love as BPA and not worry about need.

    It could be a potential WR like Heyward-Bey, one of the CB or even Harvin who could be an explosive replacement for Faulk.
  3. ayjackson

    ayjackson Rookie

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    I think we may take an OLB and a S on day one because there seems to be some excellent Patriot prospects available at those positions. I do not agree that we necessarily need them.

    BB might be quite happy with Thomas, Woods, Crable, Redd and perhaps Colvin (hasn't signed anywhere yet?) at OLB.

    He seems to be happy with Merriweather and Sanders at safety, with Springs, Vetrone and a second day pick in the mix.

    It's talent, not need driving the interest in players such as Barwin, Delmas, Smith and English.
  4. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    If we were to only address two position on the 25th I thing they would be LB in general outside or inside and safety. Lucky for us OLB is possibly the deepest position in this draft so we should have a good selection to choose from. Safety is also another fairly deep position so we should get one of our top choices. If we were to only get an OLB and a safety (without trading up) I would choose Larry English and William Moore.
  5. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    If we had some picks to play with, I'd use #23 on a D-lineman to develop slowly and replace Seymour/Warren in the future, or to back up Wilfork. I would trade #47 to a bad team for a 2010 pick.
  6. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We clearly need at least one OLB and one S prospect. You are absolutely right, we could potentially fill them quite well later on - for example, we could probably get Cody Brown and Chip Vaughn with our #58 and 89 picks (possibly requiring a slight trade up from #89) and they might be extremely solid players for us, quite possibly becoming examples of more Pats values. They're very nice prospects, and in another year we might be grateful to have them available in the draft (such as last year, when we picked at #63, 69 and 78).

    The problem is that we have such an abundance of early picks in an year where there is so much depth, particularly at those two positions. It's hard to focus on the value of Vaughn in the 3rd round when Delmas, Sean Smith, Will Moore and Chung may be available in the 2nd. It's hard to focus on the value of Cody Brown (or possibly Lawrence Sidbury) in the late 2nd/early 3rd when Barwin, English, Maybin, Everette Brown, Ayers, Michael Johnson, Matthews, Cushing and Sintim are all within reach if we decided we really wanted one of them.

    Similarly, there are some great OT and OG options that are likely to be available in the late 2nd and 3rd rounds: Jamon Meredith, Troy Kropog, Gerald Cadogan, TJ Lang, Andy Levitre, Trevor Canfield, etc. So if we miss out on Beatty, Britton, Max, Unger or Wood all is not lost.

    So we're not under any pressure to fill any of those needs with our top 3 picks. The question is how much value the FO puts on some of the top prospects at those positions, and how highly they prize some of the prospects at positions of lesser immediate need. There's no doubt that Hakeem Nicks, Darius Butler and Knowshon Moreno would be terrific Pats picks; the only question is whether they stand out enough to justify taking them as early as is required when their positions are not immediate needs and other equally talented players are available at positions that have greater need.

    I'm sure the FO will figure it all out. And we'll probably be surprised at some of their moves. And we'll probably all come to appreciate them down the road, for the most part.
  7. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    If I were to bet, I'd say that a DB - either S or CB/S hybrid - will be one of the top 2 picks. And I'm not 100% convinced that an OLB will come early, but I do think a LB of some type will come on day 1.

    Other than that, I don't think there are any immediate needs, but many needs for 2010. So I could easily see any of the below items addressed purely based on BPA. The only positions I can't see being addressed in the first 100 are QB and RB.

    OL is an obvious one, but I'd prefer not to spend 23 or 34 on an OL who's going to sit around for a year.

    DL is an interesting one. There are 6 pretty good ones already on the roster. But only 2 of them are signed through next year, and I wouldn't be surprised of 2 or 3 of FAs are gone.

    TE is in the same category. Watson is looking at UFA. I wouldn't be surprised if a 2nd-3rd round TE is brought in to push Thomas - whom I really like as a player, he just hasn't produced.

    WR isn't an area of need either. But Percy Harvin is one of my favorites right now at 23 - a Reggie Bush type who can take over for Faulk next year and be a very explosive option on those bubble screens - hopefully making Welker take less of a beating.

    CB is still a near-term need with last year's rooks still question marks, Springs being old and Hobbs being a possible UFA. I'm positive 2 rookie DBs (if not 3) will make the roster this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if both are brought in on day 1.
  8. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    they will probably trade for picks into next year. Honestly there are too many picks to store on the top 80 going into TC. The roster is currently at 65, add in 11 picks, plus 5 to 10 UDFA. That's 81-86 players. Going through the draft they will probably try to trade into next year, and if they can't, then some players will be cut, IR'd or just not signed as a UDFA.

    Does anyone remember the roster size going into the draft last year?
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There is plenty of room on this team for rookies at least at the following 16 positions to upgrade the current most likely roster players. I don't know how many we will draft, but the positions are certainly open to competition and upgrade.

    QB Gutierrez
    RB/FB Green-Ellis
    WR/ST Slater
    WR/ST Aiken
    WR/ST Ventrone
    TE Thomas
    OG Hochstein
    OG Yates
    OT LeVoir
    OT O'Callaghan/Britt
    DL Smith
    OLB Redd
    ILB Ruud/Alexander
    SS Williams
    FS/CB Spann
    P Hanson



  10. Feep50

    Feep50 Rookie

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    I'm sticking with my theory of a trade up or down and a trade into the 2010 draft ending up with 4 picks day 1, not 6.

    DE/OLB type Jackson?
    OL probably a tackle, I prefer a Max Unger type
    Safety, Strong safety ala Rodney, no secret my binky is Chung in this slot
    OLB/ILB prospect everyone loves Barwin in this slot

    I'm sticking with this story till BB blows it to h*ll on draft weekend! :cool:
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2009
  11. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    With the new wedge rules I'd be surprised to find a 'rookie' "upgrade" for Aiken in this draft, though there may be a couple kids his size who could be developed to fill his role. Based on the limited reps LeVoir took in relief of Light and Kaczur, we might find an upgrade amongst the top tackles, but it's not too likely past the Top Six.

    The underlined players may not be as far out on the bubble as we might think. Ventrone has earned his spurs as a Special Teamer and I'll be watching preseason to see if there is any progress in his play as a Wide Receiver. LeKevin has developed nicely as a DE, there are some interesting prospects in this draft class, certainly you and I have agreed that a DE candidate is worth drafting ahead of Sey and Jarvis reaching UFA after the season, but unless they're drafting one high Smitty's primary competition is his linemate from Nebraska and Kenny Smith if he's re-signed. I found it encouraging to read the Belichick transcript where he corrected the interviewer by 'adding' Redd to the discussion on OLB, his potential to fill a power role in Willie Mac's footsteps greatly limits the prospects who might upgrade him.

    There are missing players from your list whom I find interesting:

    - Tully Banta-Cain
    - Joey Galloway
  12. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    I agree with that, but I'm just talking about getting into TC. I don't think the pats want to start cutting players just to get under the TC limit.
  13. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    At #23 I want BPA excluding a Sanchez/Stafford unexpected free fall of course. lol

    I'm hesitant to take any skill position guys in the 1st, but Knowshon and Heyward-Bey are on my short list.

    Ideally I would take Darius Butler. He's one of a very thin class of CBs who has all the tools. The drop off after him is HUGE.

    If you grade English, Barwin, Matthews about the same and they're all still on the board it would be wise to take whomever falls to #34.
  14. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't grade Barwin/English/Matthews at all similarly, so I go for OLB over Butler at both 23 and 34. If I felt compelled to go CB (which I don't), Alphonso Smith could conceivably be there at 47, and I'm not so sure I still don't prefer him to Butler because of his ball skills - at the very least, it's not nearly as huge a dropoff to me as it apparently is to you. And I think DJ Moore could fall to 58 and be a steal there.
  15. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are multiple scenerios which can be generated to determine who might be the best value for New England at #23, but as mayo pointed out in another thread, the roster depth at CB affects the value of a Butler. Head to head, I think Butler offers less value to NE than Barwin. Further, I'm not prepared to say the drop off after Butler is that significant, there are small school CBs projected to later rounds who offer similar athletic gifts and I would evaluate Alphonso Smith's playmaking skills higher than Butler's. He does have to be considered if he is there at #23, but if the Top 20 follows the general consensus choices we've seen thus far, he's not immediately the best value.
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is from Rich Gosselin's blog:

    NFL Blog | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

    Anatomy of a prospect: Connecticut CB Darius Butler

    Darius Butler is everything the NFL wants in a cornerback. He's 5-10, 183 pounds and runs a 4.41. His 43-inch vertical jump was the best at the NFL combine. So athletically, the package is all there. So is the football package. Butler started 45 career games at Connecticut and was a two-year captain. He was an All-Big East selection as a senior and also returns kicks. What's not to like?

    For starters, where are the plays? Butler did not have an interception last season and broke up only four passes in 11 games. You hear that the opposition threw away from Butler -- you hear that about all the great college corners -- but the playmakers find some way to get their hands on the football. Charles Woodson was the only player to win a Heisman Trophy at cornerback in 1997. Offenses didn't throw at him, but he still found a way to intercept five passes for Michigan that season.

    The last highly-touted cornerback I can recall coming of college without an interception in his senior season was North Carolina's Jimmy Hitch**** in 1995. He wound up sliding into the third round, where he was drafted by New England. He played eight NFL seasons and intercepted 19 career passes.

    Butler did intercept 10 passes in his career at Connecticut -- but none in his final 17 games. Butler will still go high in the 2009 draft. Just how high will be determined by how NFL teams resolve in their draft meetings his lack of plays.


    I like Butler. But he was probably the #5 CB and a mid-2nd round prospect before the combine and his pro day. To say that he's now the possible #1 CB in the draft and that the dropoff after him his "huge" seems a bit of a stretch.

    I'm sure there will be a lot of disagreement about this. Perhaps we can start a "is Darius Butler overrated" thread. :D
  17. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    We could, but I doubt it would last on page one very long. lol

    You'd have to agree there's definitely a differing of opinions on the OLB class? So it's likely there's a similar debate ongoing within the Patriot's war room as well as many other's. If that's the case then why not take a position which isn't as deep like CB at #23? IMO Butler is that guy, but others may have Vontae Davis as that guy.
  18. Ungeheuer

    Ungeheuer Rookie

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    The problem with drafting a corner -- a pure corner like Butler, not someone like Sean Smith who can play safety -- is that it almost automatically means cutting someone who is likely to make the team. Right now there are five good corners on the roster: Springs, Bodden, Hobbs, Wheatley and Wilhite. Moreover at least three of those guys are going to be here beyond this year. At the same time, there are only two legit safeties, Meriweather and Sanders. Are you really going to add a sixth corner, who's almost guaranteed not to play much this year, when you have no depth at all at safety?

    It seems to me that if they pick a DB high it'll be a safety, or someone who can play safety.
  19. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Springs is an option at S.

    Just throwing the option out there. I believe in getting the best value early excluding the obvious position of QB. The rest are all open to depth IMO.
  20. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    I'd be surprised if Galloway isn't a - if 100% healthy - lock for the roster. We need some one year stopgap players, for a couple of reasons. One, outside of Robiskie, and maybe Nicks, I don't see an outside wide receiver coming in and paying dividends in 2009 and/or competing w Galloway. There are a bunch who I think are great long term investments (particularly the two named above) and there are a lot of good slot + versatile returnmen type options.

    The other reason why some one year stopgaps are necessary is b/c of the murkiness clouding next offseason, and the likelihood that we'll be replenishing much of the roster via the draft. So guys like Galloway, Bodden (though he might be signed long term), can contribute in 2009, and have their roster spot filled in 2010 by a rook. In both cases, the actual replacement was or will be drafted in 2008 and or 2009, but those replacements aren't ready to contribute yet. Perfect situation, a young player is given time to develop in 2009 while a vet contributes, in 2010 we will probably stockpile on youth.

    All the more reason to try and move some draft picks into 2010.
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