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* Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? *


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1a. Either Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers.
1b. Either Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers.
2a. Either Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Julio Jones, or Jon Baldwin if any fall.
2b. Either Mike Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, or Jimmy Smith.

You're going to have to trade up for one of your 1st rounders. Think about it. You're considering drafting a guy at 8. If you don't get him, you expect him to drop to 28?
 
You're going to have to trade up for one of your 1st rounders. Think about it. You're considering drafting a guy at 8. If you don't get him, you expect him to drop to 28?

Although it isn't likely, I'm hoping that Fairley drops becuase of the deep class of DEs that are eligible.
 
Although it isn't likely, I'm hoping that Fairley drops becuase of the deep class of DEs that are eligible.

Oh, he could drop. But, we would still have to trade up. I think there might be 10 DL in 1st round. Dareus, Heyward, Clayborn, Quinn, Bowers, Fairley, Bailey, Kerrigan, Ballard and Nevis. But, I'm hoping we win 11 or 12 games. That would have us picking 28-30. Lower if we're in the Super Bowl of course. I'd be willing to trade up. Sacrificing a 2nd. I think our defense is close. And, Bowers/Quinn and Fairley would set our front 7.
 
Oh, he could drop. But, we would still have to trade up. I think there might be 10 DL in 1st round. Dareus, Heyward, Clayborn, Quinn, Bowers, Fairley, Bailey, Kerrigan, Ballard and Nevis. But, I'm hoping we win 11 or 12 games. That would have us picking 28-30. Lower if we're in the Super Bowl of course. I'd be willing to trade up. Sacrificing a 2nd. I think our defense is close. And, Bowers/Quinn and Fairley would set our front 7.

Agreed. I have no problem trading 2a.
 
Agreed. I have no problem trading 2a.

In 09 the Jets only had to give up a mid-2nd to move from 17-5. And, that was to get a qb where you should get more. The Jets threw in a couple of castoffs; K.Coleman, A.Elam and B. Ratliff. I'll give em T.Wheatley if they twist my arm. I don't think we'd have to give up 2a to go from 29-15 for example. That might get our guy. Only 2b.
 
In 09 the Jets only had to give up a mid-2nd to move from 17-5. And, that was to get a qb where you should get more. The Jets threw in a couple of castoffs; K.Coleman, A.Elam and B. Ratliff. I'll give em T.Wheatley if they twist my arm. I don't think we'd have to give up 2a to go from 29-15 for example. That might get our guy. Only 2b.

As long as we get Bowers and Fairly, I don't care what we do (as long as it's reasonabe).
 
1a. Either Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers.
1b. Either Nick Fairley or Da'Quan Bowers.
2a. Either Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Julio Jones, or Jon Baldwin if any fall.
2b. Either Mike Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, or Jimmy Smith.

Love the first two picks. For me it's Fairley or bust (no pun intended). After that, I like Da'Quan Bowers, Aldon Smith, and Robert Quinn all about the same, although they bring different strengths and weaknesses to the table. Bowers is probably the best fit for our defense, though.

Blackmon is a guy I've really started to like. He's a really natural receiver, and if he does declare, probably will be available later than his production/talents dictate, but only because A.J. Green, Michael Floyd, Julio Jones, Jon Baldwin, and Ryan Broyles are going to steal the spotlight in the first round.

Really excellent picks all around. I couldn't complain in the least, although I dislike Daniel Thomas' running style. He's way too upright and straight-line; he is a big guy, but he'll be blown up in the NFL--just look at his game against Nebraska. I'm not a believer. Leshoure and Smith are good second round values, though. Great work. :)
 
1 - OLB Robert Quinn, UNC Tar Heels!!

robert-quinn.jpg


1 - DE Nick Fairley, Auburn Tiggers!!

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2 - OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin Badgers!!

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2 - C/G Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State Nittany Lions!!

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3 - S Ahmad Black, Florida Gators!!

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4 - RB Da'Rell Scott, Maryland Terrapins!!

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5 - QB Nathan Enderle, Idaho Vandals!!

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6 - RB Brandon Saine, Ohio State BuckEyes!!

saine.jpg


Size, position flexibility and serious pass rush potential for the front 7.
Fresh meat for Dante to turn into the next gen OL.
Ball-hawking DB with superior instincts.
2 RBs for the committee, both with track speed.
Annual late round QB shot in the dark.
Depending on comp picks, have at least one pick left over (probably a 3rd) to move around to get these guys or trade into 2012.

Great looking crew!! :D

First 4 are ALL Front 12, and the 5th is a Defender. LOVE it!! :rocker:
 
This looks pretty prophetic at this point. Deaderick started on Sunday.



That's two for two.



You can't win 'em all!



Nick to IR was a little surprising, although many others were predicting just that.



Yeah, Dan has looked a little over-matched at time this year. Although in fairness I think he was been giving help to Connolly at times.



Arrington has been ok, but not great. McCourty is better than expected. No doubt the Bodden injury was the most significant.



Woodhead and BJGE have been better than expected as well. Woodhead is the real deal.

That was a really gratifying post, Bro.

Thanks for taking the time to analyze, and thanks for the kind words. :cool:
 
As OffTheGrid mentioned, Cunningham has continued to get better each game.

A lot better actually.

He looks like he could be the real deal at OLB.


Kind thanks for the props, Bro.

The lats two weeks have been HEAD SPINNING for all of us, I'm SURE...In a GOOD way. :eek:
 
In 09 the Jets only had to give up a mid-2nd to move from 17-5. And, that was to get a qb where you should get more. The Jets threw in a couple of castoffs; K.Coleman, A.Elam and B. Ratliff. I'll give em T.Wheatley if they twist my arm. I don't think we'd have to give up 2a to go from 29-15 for example. That might get our guy. Only 2b.

2b?

Or...not...2b?

That is the question. :D

Sorry.

***

VERY interesting point.

In your example ~ #29 for #15 ~ the "official" value gap would be #49: 640 points + 410 points for 1050 points. That would actually drop right in the middle of what you two are discussing. And of course is we were to throw in Wheatley, that would obviously affect the equation.
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

This is my second mock with a some small changes from a few weeks ago, but my overall philosophy stays the same. I don’t see a whole lot of major needs for the Pats going forward, with most of the problems not personnel deficiencies, but rather youth and inexperience. This leaves the Pats with a huge amount of flexibility to be aggressive and target impact players, especially in the early rounds.

A few weeks ago I posted the idea of trading Meriweather, moving McCourty to FS and drafting Patrick Peterson (more as a hypothetical idea if anything). But the more I think about it and the more I watch Meriweather’s play, the more I would absolutely make this move. Everything I have seen or heard about McCourty leads me to believe he could be an elite FS and leader of the secondary. It would also allow the Pats to draft a shutdown corner like Peterson or Prince Amukamara who have the size to match up with the bigger WR’s in the AFC East. The following is more of a dream scenario where all of these guys fall into place.

I currently project the Oakland pick to be around 3rd, which would allow the Pats to move down 2-3 sports and still have Peterson or Amukamara fall to them. The value of moving from 3 to 5 is worth roughly a high second round pick, and with a rookie wage scale in place and teams fighting over guys AJ Green, Robert Quinn and possibly Jake Locker, there should be good interest to move up to the Pats spot.

Trade FS Brandon Meriwether for a 2nd (Dallas?)
Franchise and trade OG Logan Mankins for a 2nd and 5th (Chicago?)
Trade 1st (3) for 1st (5) and 2(5)
Trade 3 2nd’s for a 1st (8-10 range)
Trade the Pats 1st (32) and a 2nd to move up into the 10-12 range
(The value of these trades are based on the assumption that the Pats will pick 32 and Mankins and Meriwether are traded for mid 2nd round picks (15-20 range).

1a (5) - CB- Patrick Peterson- LSU/ CB- Prince Amukamara- Nebraska
Big time shutdown corner prospects that can potentially be left on an island with a wideout. Adding a Patrick Peterson type corner could unlock an enormous amount of blitzing possibilities with the confidence that the opposing #1 WR is covered. Also allows the Pats to trade Meriweather and move McCourty to FS

1b (8-10)- DE/OLB- Da’Quan Bowers- Clemson
Da’Quan Bowers has been ‘my guy’ since before the season started. He is an unbelievable talent and probably the best fit for a two gap OLB convert. He is great against the run, and already plays with sound two-gap principles; he can rush the passer, drop into coverage and has experience on his feet or with his hand on the ground. He also has the versatility to play 3-4 OLB, 3-4 DE on passing plays an inside of 4-man fronts. Forget Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers is THE BEST DE/OLB in this draft. Instead of looking for the DeMarcus Ware Prototype, 10 years from now people will be looking for the Da’Quan Bowers Prototype. (OK I may be getting a little excited but I really believe this kid will be special).

1c (10-12)- RB- Mark Ingram- Bama
I believe he really is the perfect compliment for the Pats offence. He might not be elite at anything, but he is great at everything. I think he can be the most well rounded back in the NFL. Adding this extra dimension to the offence could lead to limitless possibilities. If the Pats can consistently run for first downs, this offence could be unstoppable.

2 (Car) - WR- Julio Jones- Bama
You can tell from my previous mock I love Julio Jones as a fit for the Pats. He is a big physical target that can add to so many dimensions of the offence. He is currently slipping down draft boards because of some inconsistency issues and the overall strength of WR’s in this class. If he is there in the early 2nd with Carolina’s pick I would jump all over him.

3a (Min) - Best OT available- Nate Solder- Col/ Joe Barksdale- LSU/ Lee Zeimba- Auburn
There are a number of possibilities here with OT. While there is no elite talent at the top of the first, there seems to be decent depth for both RT and LT in the mid rounds. Some of the interesting guys are Nate Solder, who has amazing potential but is slipping because he is yet to put it together. Another guy I really like is Joe Barksdale, who I think is really undervalued and underappreciated. It really comes down to who the Pats put the highest grade on that is available at this point.

3b- OC- Rodney Hudson- Florida State
Hudson is hugely talented and should go much higher, but teams will really see his size as an issue. At 285 pounds he is too small to play in the NFL, and teams worry that adding weight may affect his athleticism and mobility, which could drop him to the 3rd or 4th round. If he is there at the end of the 3rd I wouldn’t hesitate to take him. He is the most talented interior lineman in this draft and I don’t think his lack of size would be a huge issue in the Pats system.

4. RB- John Clay- Wisconsin
A big short yardage back that can also play some fullback. He is a really talented player who would be a great compliment to a running back core of Ingram, BJGE and Woody.

5a – DE- Cedrick Thornton- Southern Arkansas
This guy is a big time small school sleeper. He dominates lower competition for Southern Arkansas but also takes his opportunities against tougher competition. He is the prototype 3-4 DE at 6’4, 295 pounds and is hugely talented. He is currently a 5-6th rounder but will likely rise into the 3-4th round range as we get closer to the draft. I would be surprised if he came off the board at the end of round 2. Definitely someone to keep an eye on.

5b – OG- James Carpenter- Bama
A starter at LT for a big time program in the SEC, so you know he is playing at a high level. He will move inside to guard in the NFL where I think he would be a very good fit for the pats. He isn’t a mauler, but he is a very intelligent blocker, and makes very good use of angles and technique to open up running lanes. Adequate size and good athleticism, which allows him to be very successful at getting to the second level. He seems like he would be a great fit for the Pats offence, and given some time with Dante he could be a very good contributor.

6. NT- Kendrick Ellis- Hampton
One area I would like to see the Pats add a player is nose tackle, by adding another legit 340 pound monster, to allow VW#75 an occasional breather, and also play in packages where Wilfork shifts to DE. This seems to be quite successful against very good running teams; however, with a legit 340 pound NT next to Wilfork instead of Mike Wright, this package could be even more effective. Kendrick Ellis is a very talented player, but he is also a major red flag in terms of character. He has already been dismissed for South Carolina, and been suspended at Hampton. His stock will drastically fall coming into the draft and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he went undrafted. However, in the 6th round I would take the risk and ideally give him a year on the Practice Squad.

7. OLB- Ugo Chinasa- Okla State
The prototype OLB, he is 6’5, 255 pounds and very athletic. He seems like he is finally starting to put it together on the field so he may go higher than this on draft day. But he is still very raw and would require some coaching. He likely wouldn’t make the team initially but would make a good practice squad candidate.

UDFA- QB- Greg McElroy- Bama
Game manager QB that is a two year starter in the SEC. He won’t be Brady’s successor but would be a good candidate as a back up and a guy to push Hoyer. Likely another practice squad candidate and QB depth, that would be a good fit for the Pats dink and dunk offence.

UDFA- QB- Mitch Mustain- USC
A really interesting QB that the Pats could see as the next Matt Cassel. He has some talent but has never gotten the opportunity at USC. As an UDFA I would definitely take a shot at him and let him and McElroy battle it out for a spot on the practice squad.
 
2b?

Or...not...2b?

That is the question. :D

Sorry.

***

VERY interesting point.

In your example ~ #29 for #15 ~ the "official" value gap would be #49: 640 points + 410 points for 1050 points. That would actually drop right in the middle of what you two are discussing. And of course is we were to throw in Wheatley, that would obviously affect the equation.

Yeah, I was thinking 2b. Jets 2nd rounder was mid-pack 49. They gave up a 2nd and some jags to move up 12 with a QB on the board.
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

Trade FS Brandon Meriwether for a 2nd (Dallas?)

There's a lot in your post, but this leapt out at me. Remember, Meriweather is in the final year of his contract. A 2nd seems wildly unrealistic.
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

There's a lot in your post, but this leapt out at me. Remember, Meriweather is in the final year of his contract. A 2nd seems wildly unrealistic.

I can definately see where you are coming from, but I think a team like Dallas who is in desperate need of a FS and has an owner like Jerry Jones could pull the trigger on this. While Pats fans are unhappy with Meriweather's attitude and play, around the league he is still a relatively big names, pro bowl free safety that a team going after a superbowl right now could go after. Most reasonable and logical teams wouldnt pay that price for Meriweather, but we are talking about Jerry Jones here, and he wants to win and win now.
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

This is my second mock with a some small changes from a few weeks ago, but my overall philosophy stays the same. I don’t see a whole lot of major needs for the Pats going forward, with most of the problems not personnel deficiencies, but rather youth and inexperience. This leaves the Pats with a huge amount of flexibility to be aggressive and target impact players, especially in the early rounds.

A few weeks ago I posted the idea of trading Meriweather, moving McCourty to FS and drafting Patrick Peterson (more as a hypothetical idea if anything). But the more I think about it and the more I watch Meriweather’s play, the more I would absolutely make this move. Everything I have seen or heard about McCourty leads me to believe he could be an elite FS and leader of the secondary. It would also allow the Pats to draft a shutdown corner like Peterson or Prince Amukamara who have the size to match up with the bigger WR’s in the AFC East. The following is more of a dream scenario where all of these guys fall into place.

I currently project the Oakland pick to be around 3rd, which would allow the Pats to move down 2-3 sports and still have Peterson or Amukamara fall to them. The value of moving from 3 to 5 is worth roughly a high second round pick, and with a rookie wage scale in place and teams fighting over guys AJ Green, Robert Quinn and possibly Jake Locker, there should be good interest to move up to the Pats spot.

Trade FS Brandon Meriwether for a 2nd (Dallas?)
Franchise and trade OG Logan Mankins for a 2nd and 5th (Chicago?)
Trade 1st (3) for 1st (5) and 2(5)
Trade 3 2nd’s for a 1st (8-10 range)
Trade the Pats 1st (32) and a 2nd to move up into the 10-12 range
(The value of these trades are based on the assumption that the Pats will pick 32 and Mankins and Meriwether are traded for mid 2nd round picks (15-20 range).

1a (5) - CB- Patrick Peterson- LSU/ CB- Prince Amukamara- Nebraska
Big time shutdown corner prospects that can potentially be left on an island with a wideout. Adding a Patrick Peterson type corner could unlock an enormous amount of blitzing possibilities with the confidence that the opposing #1 WR is covered. Also allows the Pats to trade Meriweather and move McCourty to FS

1b (8-10)- DE/OLB- Da’Quan Bowers- Clemson
Da’Quan Bowers has been ‘my guy’ since before the season started. He is an unbelievable talent and probably the best fit for a two gap OLB convert. He is great against the run, and already plays with sound two-gap principles; he can rush the passer, drop into coverage and has experience on his feet or with his hand on the ground. He also has the versatility to play 3-4 OLB, 3-4 DE on passing plays an inside of 4-man fronts. Forget Robert Quinn, Da’Quan Bowers is THE BEST DE/OLB in this draft. Instead of looking for the DeMarcus Ware Prototype, 10 years from now people will be looking for the Da’Quan Bowers Prototype. (OK I may be getting a little excited but I really believe this kid will be special).

1c (10-12)- RB- Mark Ingram- Bama
I believe he really is the perfect compliment for the Pats offence. He might not be elite at anything, but he is great at everything. I think he can be the most well rounded back in the NFL. Adding this extra dimension to the offence could lead to limitless possibilities. If the Pats can consistently run for first downs, this offence could be unstoppable.

2 (Car) - WR- Julio Jones- Bama
You can tell from my previous mock I love Julio Jones as a fit for the Pats. He is a big physical target that can add to so many dimensions of the offence. He is currently slipping down draft boards because of some inconsistency issues and the overall strength of WR’s in this class. If he is there in the early 2nd with Carolina’s pick I would jump all over him.

3a (Min) - Best OT available- Nate Solder- Col/ Joe Barksdale- LSU/ Lee Zeimba- Auburn
There are a number of possibilities here with OT. While there is no elite talent at the top of the first, there seems to be decent depth for both RT and LT in the mid rounds. Some of the interesting guys are Nate Solder, who has amazing potential but is slipping because he is yet to put it together. Another guy I really like is Joe Barksdale, who I think is really undervalued and underappreciated. It really comes down to who the Pats put the highest grade on that is available at this point.

3b- OC- Rodney Hudson- Florida State
Hudson is hugely talented and should go much higher, but teams will really see his size as an issue. At 285 pounds he is too small to play in the NFL, and teams worry that adding weight may affect his athleticism and mobility, which could drop him to the 3rd or 4th round. If he is there at the end of the 3rd I wouldn’t hesitate to take him. He is the most talented interior lineman in this draft and I don’t think his lack of size would be a huge issue in the Pats system.

4. RB- John Clay- Wisconsin
A big short yardage back that can also play some fullback. He is a really talented player who would be a great compliment to a running back core of Ingram, BJGE and Woody.

5a – DE- Cedrick Thornton- Southern Arkansas
This guy is a big time small school sleeper. He dominates lower competition for Southern Arkansas but also takes his opportunities against tougher competition. He is the prototype 3-4 DE at 6’4, 295 pounds and is hugely talented. He is currently a 5-6th rounder but will likely rise into the 3-4th round range as we get closer to the draft. I would be surprised if he came off the board at the end of round 2. Definitely someone to keep an eye on.

5b – OG- James Carpenter- Bama
A starter at LT for a big time program in the SEC, so you know he is playing at a high level. He will move inside to guard in the NFL where I think he would be a very good fit for the pats. He isn’t a mauler, but he is a very intelligent blocker, and makes very good use of angles and technique to open up running lanes. Adequate size and good athleticism, which allows him to be very successful at getting to the second level. He seems like he would be a great fit for the Pats offence, and given some time with Dante he could be a very good contributor.

6. NT- Kendrick Ellis- Hampton
One area I would like to see the Pats add a player is nose tackle, by adding another legit 340 pound monster, to allow VW#75 an occasional breather, and also play in packages where Wilfork shifts to DE. This seems to be quite successful against very good running teams; however, with a legit 340 pound NT next to Wilfork instead of Mike Wright, this package could be even more effective. Kendrick Ellis is a very talented player, but he is also a major red flag in terms of character. He has already been dismissed for South Carolina, and been suspended at Hampton. His stock will drastically fall coming into the draft and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he went undrafted. However, in the 6th round I would take the risk and ideally give him a year on the Practice Squad.

7. OLB- Ugo Chinasa- Okla State
The prototype OLB, he is 6’5, 255 pounds and very athletic. He seems like he is finally starting to put it together on the field so he may go higher than this on draft day. But he is still very raw and would require some coaching. He likely wouldn’t make the team initially but would make a good practice squad candidate.

UDFA- QB- Greg McElroy- Bama
Game manager QB that is a two year starter in the SEC. He won’t be Brady’s successor but would be a good candidate as a back up and a guy to push Hoyer. Likely another practice squad candidate and QB depth, that would be a good fit for the Pats dink and dunk offence.

UDFA- QB- Mitch Mustain- USC
A really interesting QB that the Pats could see as the next Matt Cassel. He has some talent but has never gotten the opportunity at USC. As an UDFA I would definitely take a shot at him and let him and McElroy battle it out for a spot on the practice squad.

I like you're thinking about drafting Patrick Peterson. McCourty and Chung appear to be the only young guys developing as we hoped. We do have Bodden coming back. Peterson is 6'1" 220lb. He might be the one who projects to FS. Supposedly runs a 4.3, and from looking at his punt returns for td's. That seems possible. They play Auburn sat. Fairley and Peterson on the same field. I'm pretty sure db and olb are my two slots I'd like to fill. More than a 3-4 de.

I think you're too optomistic on your trade hopes. Mankins will just sit again if we tag him. Let's just move on. We'll get a 3rd in 2012 draft for him. Supplemental pick. I know the debate was cb or fs when Meriweather came out of college. I wonder if someone thinks he projects better as a SS? He seems to make his plays closer to the line of scrimmage than downfield. Like the play against Miami Wildcat where he tackled R.Brown for a loss. 1b, 2b and Meriweather might get us high enough for Quinn/Bowers. I doubt if we'd give that much up for one pick though.
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

W75 - I still have the same objection to your McCourty plan. As smart as he is, which would make him ideal for FS, I still want more of a ball hawk in the job. Devin is a more athletic version of James Sanders, smart and solid, but he was never an interception machine in college and that's what I'd like to see at FS (as long as whomever it is can also play disciplined and manage the secondary assignments and communications like he's Rodney Harrison in his prime).
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

W75 - I still have the same objection to your McCourty plan. As smart as he is, which would make him ideal for FS, I still want more of a ball hawk in the job. Devin is a more athletic version of James Sanders, smart and solid, but he was never an interception machine in college and that's what I'd like to see at FS (as long as whomever it is can also play disciplined and manage the secondary assignments and communications like he's Rodney Harrison in his prime).

We could really use a Fred Marion type of FS. Not a glamour all-pro. Just a guy who understands the position. Everyone wants the next Ed Reed. But, I'd settle for a guy like Marion. Do you think SS if Meriweather's best position Box?
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

We could really use a Fred Marion type of FS. Not a glamour all-pro. Just a guy who understands the position. Everyone wants the next Ed Reed. But, I'd settle for a guy like Marion. Do you think SS if Meriweather's best position Box?
He had a breakout year when he was at SS, the problem is his hitting ability, he's a smaller Safety so he needs to wind-up to pack a punch and he doesn't tackle as cleanly as Chung - Chung has been an improvement at SS for the defense, so I'm no longer in favor of moving Meriweather back. I think Meriweather's issues have all been in the mental part of the game, so there's hope, maybe this fine and BB's sideline glare will be enough to get him to refocus.
 
Re: * Top 64: What Are Your First 4 Picks?? * 2.0

We could really use a Fred Marion type of FS. Not a glamour all-pro. Just a guy who understands the position. Everyone wants the next Ed Reed. But, I'd settle for a guy like Marion. Do you think SS if Meriweather's best position Box?

Brian Lainhart from Kent State. He's bigger than BM, can lay the lumber and is a ball-hawk. His career stats are 15 picks and 9 forced fumbles. Listed at 6'1 and 207 lbs. He is slowly creeping up draft boards. Should be able to get him in the late 4th or 5th.
 
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