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This is a Felger type position. I haven't listened to Felger in quite awhile but I would not doubt that a lot of casual Patriots fans think "something happened but the punishment is overboard" because of listening to the Felgers of the world.
I still don't understand how the missing texts argument still holds water. Jas and McNally turned their phones over and it was demonstrated that Jas had documented correspondence with TB12 over footballs (that Goody manipulated into something else). Brady's two (?) missing texts were corroborated with Jas' texts. Brady turned over his text records to the NFL and identified who the recipients were and invited the NFL to contact these people. They chose not to. They had no reason. They had the story to fit their narrative.
If anything, the wiping of Brady's phone was in fact ill-advised (with all the hub-bub) but does not prove guilt. It only provides a foundation for suspicion.