TMQ on Pats running game

[Patsfanin Philly]

I can't believe this guy actually gets paid to write about sports.

Here's some stats he forgot to mention
**28.9% of Patriot rushes get first downs- 1st in the league
** Pats have 96 rushing first downs- 1st in the league
**Pats have 12 rushing TDs- 3rd in the league
** Pats have only rushing fumbles- 3rd in league
**Pats average 30.2 rushing attempts per game- 8th in league

 

[Ring 6]

This is my opinion on this.

#1 I have always believed (and from what I have seen believe BB shares this opinion) that the way to build an offensive gameplan goes something like this:

1) Determine where you have the largest mismatch. Simplistically passing or running.
2) Create a game plan that maximizes your ability to exploit that mismatch.
3) If the mismatch is in the passing game, you need to run the ball in order to be passing against a defense that is not overcompensating to cover up that mismatch. For example, if my advantage is throwing the ball, and I pass every play, I will face nickel and dime all day, and the corners will get help. If I run enough, I will throw against a base D, and carve it up.
4) The gameplan is not designed for every single play to be the best play I can run. It is designed to create scoring opportunities by making them defend their biggest weakness without overcompensating.
5) Throughout the game, each play I call has its impact on the rest of the plays I am going to call under consideration.

The idea is that you aren't going to score on every drive. It will be much more difficult to score if you allow the other team to cover up their weaknesses, so I have to attack their strengths in order to expose their weaknesses.

I think that this year BB has seen evidence to suggest that it doesnt really matter what the other team does, when we throw the ball we are nearly unstoppable.
If that is the case, the strategy changes, and you call the play you like best regardless of what the defense is going to do. In other words, no matter how they defend our passing game, we still have a huge mismatch, so their is no need to do anything else to set up the exploitation.

I tend to think that this thought process is about 75% correct. There are many teams that we could throw on every single down against and score 50 points. There are others that we could throw on every down and score 35, but they are smart enough to scheme a way to make it difficult.
IMO, in the games where we really cant be stopped, why not throw it 50-60 times, but when we face defenses that are WELL COACHED we should be more balanced, because the good coaching puts a little balance into our huge mismatch in talent in the passing game.

 

[Ring 6]

Honestly, I worry about a high wind game or a game like Pitt-Fish.

Yes, the Pats have the 11th best ypc avg. But how much of that is because of a great RB and o-line and how much of that is because nobody defends NE rush? Other teams def coordinators know that the Pats throw the ball a lot more than they run and also know the Pats get a lot more yards on passes than runs.

So they triple team Moss and double team Welker, that doesn't leave many folks left to defend the rush.

But I don't know if b/c of weather the long pass was eliminated if the Pats could move the ball well if the other team was actually focused on defending the rush. Getting a few yards rushing when the entire defense is focused on the pass is not the hallmark of a great rushing offense.

Unfortunately though, thats not the way defense works.
Wouldn't it be great if teams took 5 players and told them to cover Moss and Welker and take a nap if its a run?
The reality is that those guys who are doubling (and it really is very rarely a double team but a corner with deep safety help in a zone) are coming from a position on the field where they are playing run support, then drop into coverage if its a pass.
The truth is our run game is HINDERED by our scheme, because we almost never have a FB on the field, play 1 TE, and 3 WRs. We are much, much more susceptible to run blitzes, and DBs coming up to make plays at or near the los than if we had a FB in the game and/or 2 TEs. Without a lead blocker one missed block up front creates a loss. With a lead blocker, you account for one missed block, or the extra block to spring them.

How many run oriented teams come out with no FB and 3 wides to make their running game go? NONE.

 

[sebman2112]

Well, that part doesn't naturally follow because the Pats have a total of more offensive plays than any other team. So above avg number of total running plays doesn't automatically translate into a higher than league norm of the Pats plays being run vs. pass.

So I did some number crunching, 55% of all plays are passing plays. 18th highest in the league so slightly less than avg. The most was the Lions who throw 64% of the time, the least Steelers 44%.

I would dispute you claim that teams know the run is coming when we are up. See multiple discussions on "running up the score" the Pat continue to throw the ball when they are up by a large lead.

There are times when it's been obvious the Patriots were going to run though. Look at the Eagles game, it was pretty obvious Maroney was going to run before the snap each time he got the ball, and the Eagles had their run blitz in effect. If the Patriots could take away at least some of their predictability their rushing attack and their passing attack (to a slight extent) would be even tougher to control.

 

[Metaphors]

I am sure he is aware of it. And I am sure he will have a game plan to cope with it. But, I am not sure if he has the personnel to execute an all ground game.

5 OL that are at least capable run blockers
2 mountainous TEs (Brady and O'Callaghan)
1 blocking FB
1 RB (plus quicker or bigger backups as needed)
1 WR that you have to double-cover even in a hurricane
1 QB uniquely qualified to throw in wind/precipitation

What are the Pats missing?

Will the Pats rollover and die? - NO. But a very windy day against a very good team, that also has an excellent game plan could be the doom of the Patriots.

If the Pats are forced to run exclusively because of insanely high winds, what would the opposing gameplan be that would qualify as "excellent"? I suppose the winds could stop when the opposition has the ball, but I doubt God hates the Pats that much.

And even if BB had concluded that the Pats would be better off in a dome in January than at the Razor, what is he going to do, tell the team to throw the game against the Colts? That would be insane.

I agree that Belichick would not tell the Pats to lose to Indy so that they could play in the dome in January to avoid the New England weather. Roger that.

I expect that the Pats will come out with great game plans each game, but I am more worried about a high wind game then any other scenario. And the Pats are a great team, but not invincible.

Assuming the conditions are the same for both teams, I expect the Pats to be better suited (5th in run defense, 7th in run offense) to win than:

1) Indy - Outdoors? Can't pass? Puhleeze
2) Pitt - 3 points at home in the rain against the winless Fins. Nuff said.
3) SD - Seems it never rains in Southern California...
4) JAX - Florida team
5) Cleveland - 28th in run defense, 8th in run offense
6) Denver - 29th in run defense, 16th in run offense

Who is better suited to win in adverse winter conditions in Foxborough than the Pats? The Pats aren't invincible, but they certainly aren't more vulnerable on the frozen Razor field turf.