Re: thoughts on Staley
When you are considering value, do you also consider other factors as well, like:
1) Who is the incumbent at that position?
2) When can the incumbent be a free agent?
3) How much is the incumbent being paid?
4) How long has the incumbent been in the system?
etc.
If the Pats don't take Staley this year, what will the OT position look like in 2007? 2008? Pretty much the same as it looks now. Does Staley help this team improve to another level or even prevent it from otherwise regressing? If so, hard to argue with the pick.
If the Pats don't take Revis/Houston/Ross/Nelson/Griffen/etc., what will the DBs look like in 2007? 2008? Half of the 2007 Pats DBs are coming off injury. 2/3 of the Pats DBs may not be around in 2008.
Seems like the Pats make 1st round picks considering players they just lost (Mankins), anticipate losing the next year (Seymour,Warren,Wilfork,Maroney) or they just have an obvious need (Graham). Watson is a little harder to qualify (really wanted to use a 2 TE set? Fauria not cutting it? Assume Graham would leave as a FA?), but I think it would be a stretch to call him a "value" pick at #32. Granted he would likely have been gone before their next pick, but I find it hard to believe that if the Pats were drafting from scratch, they would have selected Watson at #32.
I think an ideal scenario would be for the Pats to take a CB at #24 (or trade up), trade out of #28 into the 2nd round and take a LB and take a S at #91 (or trade up). Obviously could go any number of ways, but that combination seems to get maximum value for the positions without reaching. Especially looking at the possible makeup of the team in 2008 with retirements/free agency.