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Thoughts on Prevent Defense & Why it works


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They were 10,8,10,9 in points allowed the last 4 seasons, which means 1000 times more than yards.

That's still not elite though. Elite should mean top 5, maybe even top 3, definitely not 8th, 9th or 10th.
 
The Pats were 9th in total defense last year, 13th in 2014, 26th the year before, and 25th in 2012. Belichick hasn't built an elite defense in years, last season's was above average, and this year's D might hover around the top 10 again (though wouldn't be shocking if they are around 15th-18th), but that's definitely not elite, come on now. You could argue that they played better than that on occasions, and the team could overcome it (as they already did), but saying that they are not elite is simply stating a fact.
Calling a subjective opinion a fact never actually makes it a fact.
 
Not that quickly, I was watching the clock, the Phins drives were taking about 4- 5 minutes to get down the field and score. That's a long time and it worked. The Pats chewed up the clock and Phins ran out time to score and tie before the game ended.

What game were you watching?

And I keep having to bring Herm up again and again and again around here. People focus on the wrong ****. The goal is not to get the opponent to kill clock. You play to win the game.

I much preferred the first 6 Miami drives of the game, even though none of them lasted longer than 2 minutes or 4 plays. I'd much prefer a Miami offense that goes 3 and out in under a minute than keeps the ball for 3 or 4 or 5 minutes and scores a TD. In fact, if they had continued to do that, I promise it would have been better than forcing Miami to chew up 70 yards in 3 minutes at a time.

Why the **** am I even explaining this???

DOLPHINS DRIVE CHART
START TIME TIME POSS DRIVE BEGAN # OF PLAYS YARDS GAINED RESULT
08:44 2:59 MIA 25 7 75 Touchdown
02:04 2:13 MIA 12 5 88 Touchdown
10:49 4:43 MIA 26 9 74 Touchdown
01:04 1:02 MIA 29 7 42 Interception

As you can see the Pats gave up 3 consecutive long TD scoring drives with only one of them taking more than 4 minutes off the clock. That's not prevent defense. That's ****ty defense.

Totally agree.

+ FG at the end of the half where they drove 77 yards in 58 seconds and settled for the FG because the clock expired, or they might have put up 7 under normal circumstances. I felt like that really gave them a bit of momentum going into halftime.

Then they came out and drove the field easily and picked up a few more 1st downs. The drive ended with a fumble fortunately, but they were driving easily on us, even after starting with a 10-yard holding penalty. Tannehill went 4 for 4 for 50 yards on that drive, so it's not like we were slowing him down even though they didn't score.
 
I've been thinking about the bend but don't break defense employed in the last half of games by BB for however many years. It's an interesting dilemma to me, as a coach. Do you continue to play aggressive knowing that all teams are extremely talented and it's generally only a matter of time before one of those extremely talented and athletic players makes a freak of nature move and breaks the game open? (see GB game 2 years ago when Jordy Nelson put a knife in our hearts at the end of the first half). Or do you play the clock and the odds. Knowing that you generally have the better coached team, the smarter team, and that your opponent will more than likely make more mistakes?

I think BB has decided the big play, knife in the heart, game changer, is more important to stop than letting them chew up clock on relatively long drives. Think about it, this is a game of strategy, you know that they are only going to have so many possessions in the second half, if you make them take 5 or 6 minutes or longer to get down the field on each possession before they score, then chances are they will run out of time to catch up and the game ends. That's a W no matter what the final box score says. What would lose you the game, is to stay ultra aggressive, have a play break down a couple of times and score two really quick TD's and that puts them back in the game. Now you're facing having to come back in the game with your 3rd string QB. Probably not going to happen.

The best thing you can do is chew as much clock as possible, keep the plays in front, limit the big play, and try to run out as much clock as possible with long sustained drives on your end. With Brady at the helm, that's easier, with a 3rd string, it's def harder. But the strategy is the same and as we've seen over the years, it's worked. Maybe not for out blood pressure and sanity, but what team has won more over the years playing the odds ? BB is out there playing chess while most of them are playing checkers. But at the end of the day, when you've got 5 or 6 players that have freakish athletic abilities, kind of like the Queen on the chess board. Even the guys playing checkers can do some huge damage that wasn't planned for or expected.

Just my two cents on the subject and why I think BB employs the strategy he does. As a conclusion, the defense is not so much about protecting the lead, as chewing up clock, and limiting huge game changing plays that put teams back in the game with enough time to win. One more though, lol, then I'll finish, think about how many times teams stayed ultra aggressive on Brady when we were down, and blitzed, etc, and Brady killed them for it to come back from large deficits and win. Although even when teams try to keep Brady in front, he's so good, he will carve you up and run the 2 minute drill the entire time. So yeah, I guess with him it's a double edged sword. There are maybe only 3 or 4 QB's in the league that will kill you like that. So, good strategy on BB's part.

Nice post. I won't question BB but I hate it.
 
Watching the second half a few days after the game (when calm): JB did a good job, scored a TD and ate up a lot of time in a couple of long drives (thank you Blount). If Ghost makes the FG game over. Game was only tense at the end because of the missed FG. You could see the disappointement on BB'S face.
 
What game were you watching?

And I keep having to bring Herm up again and again and again around here. People focus on the wrong ****. The goal is not to get the opponent to kill clock. You play to win the game.

I much preferred the first 6 Miami drives of the game, even though none of them lasted longer than 2 minutes or 4 plays. I'd much prefer a Miami offense that goes 3 and out in under a minute than keeps the ball for 3 or 4 or 5 minutes and scores a TD. In fact, if they had continued to do that, I promise it would have been better than forcing Miami to chew up 70 yards in 3 minutes at a time.

Why the **** am I even explaining this???



Totally agree.

+ FG at the end of the half where they drove 77 yards in 58 seconds and settled for the FG because the clock expired, or they might have put up 7 under normal circumstances. I felt like that really gave them a bit of momentum going into halftime.

Then they came out and drove the field easily and picked up a few more 1st downs. The drive ended with a fumble fortunately, but they were driving easily on us, even after starting with a 10-yard holding penalty. Tannehill went 4 for 4 for 50 yards on that drive, so it's not like we were slowing him down even though they didn't score.

Maybe you can just explain why the best coach ever consistently employs this tactic, along with many other coaches in the league then.
 
Maybe you can just explain why the best coach ever consistently employs this tactic, along with many other coaches in the league then.

Well if you ask him, he's not really doing what most fans think of as prevent defense, as in rolling out the same package with 2 deep safeties and no jamming. If you go by the literal definition of prevent defenses, stuff like quarters and soft zones could also be considered prevent. And if that's the case, then every team is using it even in the first quarter.

When BB was asked about in 2010 (when we had several teams come back late), he denied it, and technically he's right. There's a really interesting breakdown here:

4th Quarter Collapse: Is Prevent Defense the Problem?

If the Patriots were playing prevent, they were doing it wrong. The goal is to sacrifice the underneath stuff for protecting long passes. They gave up 4 long passes of 20+ yards in the second half.

The play calls were more conservative, yes. But that doesn't mean they were in prevent the whole time to kill clock. Some of those play calls were used in every quarter of the game, but perhaps a bit more in the 4th.
 
The anemic pass rush in the 2nd half was a designed strategy? Stop
 
Dolphins also had a couple of amazing one handed catches to help them out.
 
In the Bill Simmons podcast with Lombardi, they talked about Tannehill as a 1st quarter QB, who could be effective until the game sped up in the second half, at which point he is over matched. Seems like the opposite happened in this game.
 
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