Thoughts on Prevent Defense & Why it works

[SEA_Pat]

Thanks for the post, I was thinking of writing something similar during the game thread. This is the way BB ALWAYS plays it, and it's driven the board collectively nuts for years. I hate watching it, but I've come to understand that there must be a significantly higher percentage of victory this way, hence that's why we do it. Good that you brought up the Jordy Nelson play, that's indeed what can happen when we play it straight on.

My question though is "why don't we run the play clock down every single play when we do this?" I suppose one needs to keep the defense off of knowing the snap count if you run it down to 1 every play, but if you go somewhere between 1 to 5 seconds that would solve that problem. But knowing that we're just trading yards for time, I don't see why we don't max out the value of time we're burning.

 

[letekro]

Isn't the fact that it is 99% successful the reason it DOES make sense?

The success of plenty of successful things doesnt make sense to me. Like Starbucks, for example. Doesnt change the fact that they are successful.

 

[Pats2000]

Thanks for the post, I was thinking of writing something similar during the game thread. This is the way BB ALWAYS plays it, and it's driven the board collectively nuts for years. I hate watching it, but I've come to understand that there must be a significantly higher percentage of victory this way, hence that's why we do it. Good that you brought up the Jordy Nelson play, that's indeed what can happen when we play it straight on.

My question though is "why don't we run the play clock down every single play when we do this?" I suppose one needs to keep the defense off of knowing the snap count if you run it down to 1 every play, but if you go somewhere between 1 to 5 seconds that would solve that problem. But knowing that we're just trading yards for time, I don't see why we don't max out the value of time we're burning.

We usually do, when Brady is at the helm. Again, you don't want to wait until the last second every time, because then the defense can pin their ears back. But also, Brady may see something at the line that makes him snap the ball quicker because a guy is out of position, etc.

 

[VrabelJr]

The success of plenty of successful things doesnt make sense to me. Like Starbucks, for example. Doesnt change the fact that they are successful.

Brain addiction to sugar doesn't make sense to you?

 

[letekro]

Brain addiction to sugar doesn't make sense to you?

OK that does makes sense to me. I was focusing on the flavor of the coffee.

 

[PF_SU]

I think in these kind of situations you can play a prevent-type of soft coverage that's designed to stop the opponent from gaining big chunks at one time - if you have a consistent pass rush that can get to the QB in a hurry (like Denver's). In that case the offense rarely has the time to gun it beyond 10 yards and most time they'll come away with underneath stuff that barely move the field while eating up clock.

But our pass rush is not that kind of pass rush. They can get pressure, but they need to be creative about it. Mixing it up with people at the line, have LBs blitz, DEs drop into coverage etc. The issue with the pass rush yesterday was that it was missing a core piece: Dont'a Hightower. Hightower is a very efficient rusher, no matter whether blitzing the gaps or lined up at the edge. Shea McClellin and Freeny can't replicate anything close. Yesterday the two of them combined for zero pressures. Zero. And I also had the feeling that Collins very rarely blitzed the gaps. Perhaps either because of Hightower's absence, or because they wanted Collins in space due to Tannehill's mobility. As it happened, because Tannehill had time in the pocket in the second half he was able to really pick his spots and choose where to gun his passes and they frequently went for easy 10-20 yards.

 

[raduray]

This WaPo article agrees with the OP. Personally, I hate the prevent defense, but I watch the game sitting on a couch, not standing on the sidelines.

Bill Belichick’s brilliance is on full display as Patriots’ QB options dwindle

 

[VrabelJr]

OK that does makes sense to me. I was focusing on the flavor of the coffee.

Yeah, once you think of Starbucks as a dessert place rather than a coffee place everything starts to make sense.

 

[Schmo]

Couple of negatives about the prevent:

It does allow the offense only shorter chunks of yards, but results in more eventual first downs, meaning the D can't get off the field, meaning they will wear down more quickly than getting a 3 and out here and there.

Because the D can't get off the field as easily, it becomes more demoralizing. Momentum is constantly talked about as having a huge impact on the outcomes of games, and watching the opposing team successfully run play after play against you just becomes a downward spiral.

On the left-brained side of things, it IS more efficient when it comes to clock management.

It wasn't fun for both the players and fans during approx the second half of the game... but Bill doesn't give a f**k.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

 

[pats_premi]

I think Chris Long has been the Patriots best player on defense the first two weeks of the season. He has managed to rush the QB from edge and also from the inside. It seems as if the others are only inside rushers. Miami figured out how to block them on the inside and the QB had all day to make the throws.

To this point, it seems as if McClenllin and Freeny are waste of money.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Yeah, not sure giving up almost 400 yards to Ryan F'n Tannehill is "preventing" anything.

 

[moejr]

I would disagree this defense isn't elite. I would say they are in top 10 of talent and ability.

Right now they are ranked #9 in rush defense and #25 in passing. Definitely not top 10

 

[Gallo]

Without an elite defense?

I would disagree this defense isn't elite. I would say they are in top 10 of talent and ability.

The Pats were 9th in total defense last year, 13th in 2014, 26th the year before, and 25th in 2012. Belichick hasn't built an elite defense in years, last season's was above average, and this year's D might hover around the top 10 again (though wouldn't be shocking if they are around 15th-18th), but that's definitely not elite, come on now. You could argue that they played better than that on occasions, and the team could overcome it (as they already did), but saying that they are not elite is simply stating a fact.

 

[Major **********]

Not that quickly, I was watching the clock, the Phins drives were taking about 4- 5 minutes to get down the field and score. That's a long time and it worked. The Pats chewed up the clock and Phins ran out time to score and tie before the game ended.

DOLPHINS DRIVE CHART
START TIME TIME POSS DRIVE BEGAN # OF PLAYS YARDS GAINED RESULT
08:44 2:59 MIA 25 7 75 Touchdown
02:04 2:13 MIA 12 5 88 Touchdown
10:49 4:43 MIA 26 9 74 Touchdown
01:04 1:02 MIA 29 7 42 Interception

As you can see the Pats gave up 3 consecutive long TD scoring drives with only one of them taking more than 4 minutes off the clock. That's not prevent defense. That's ****ty defense.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I think Chris Long has been the Patriots best player on defense the first two weeks of the season. He has managed to rush the QB from edge and also from the inside. It seems as if the others are only inside rushers. Miami figured out how to block them on the inside and the QB had all day to make the throws.

To this point, it seems as if McClenllin and Freeny are waste of money.

Pretty much agree w/ everything. Freeney and McClellin are the guys you want pushed off the team by a young rookie. I see why Freeney made the team because he is a versatile jag but he is possibly the worst blitzer I have ever seen. Shea is just invisible and when I do notice him, he seems to give very little effort. Neither of them seemed to do anything too bad but the dropoff from HT to them is too steep.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Right now they are ranked #9 in rush defense and #25 in passing. Definitely not top 10

The silver lining is we may be able to easily afford Butler and Ryan if this continues lol.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats were 9th in total defense last year, 13th in 2014, 26th the year before, and 25th in 2012. Belichick hasn't built an elite defense in years, last season's was above average, and this year's D might hover around the top 10 again (though wouldn't be shocking if they are around 15th-18th), but that's definitely not elite, come on now. You could argue that they played better than that on occasions, and the team could overcome it (as they already did), but saying that they are not elite is simply stating a fact.

They were 10,8,10,9 in points allowed the last 4 seasons, which means 1000 times more than yards.

 

[The Brandon Five]

DOLPHINS DRIVE CHART
START TIME TIME POSS DRIVE BEGAN # OF PLAYS YARDS GAINED RESULT
08:44 2:59 MIA 25 7 75 Touchdown
02:04 2:13 MIA 12 5 88 Touchdown
10:49 4:43 MIA 26 9 74 Touchdown
01:04 1:02 MIA 29 7 42 Interception

As you can see the Pats gave up 3 consecutive long TD scoring drives with only one of them taking more than 4 minutes off the clock. That's not prevent defense. That's ****ty defense.

Giving up the field goal before the half was also complete B.S. Collins intercepted the ball at 1:49. The Pats threw the ball and only burned :51 thereby allowing Miami to save their 3 timeouts to drive down and kick the FG.

7 1:49 0:58 0:51 Interception MIA 49 3 5 0 5 0 MIA 44 Punt

 

[varjao]

The clowns at 98.5 disagree with the OP author and BB.