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The Situation At Safety


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Miguel

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2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

Safeties - As of now, the Patriots have seven safeties (Steve Gregory, Devin McCourty, Adrian Wilson, Tavon Wilson, Duron Harmon, Nate Ebner, and Kanorris Davis)signed for the 2014 season. Their respective cap numbers are 3,183,334, $2,115,000, $1,833,333, $1,150,335, $633,900, $594,150, and $495,000.

If the Pats decide that they need the cap space I see them releasing Steve Gregory early in the 2014 League Year.

When he signed his rookie deal Devin McCourty's 2014 salary was scheduled to be $870,000 but with a possible $3.2 million escalator for the 2014 season. Devin has already done enough to increase his 2014 salary by $50,000 to $920,000. One of the biggest cap-related questions for the Patriots is how much of the $3.2 million did McCourty earn. For the time being, my projected 2014 cap space numbers presume that he has done enough to earn all of it. Irregardless of the amount, it is time for the Patriots and Devin to reach an extension. Let's look at some comparables. Devin McCourty who will be 27 when the 2014 starts was on the All-Pro 2nd team. Earl Thomas was also drafted in 2010 and was first team All-Pro. Like McCourty Thomas is signed for the 2014 season. It could be that the Patriots and Seahawks are waiting to see who signs their safety first. Earl Thomas is a year and 9 months younger than McCourty. Eric Weddle, a fellow member of the All Pro 2nd team, signed his current 5 year $40 million deal in 2011. Kam Chancellor, yet another member of the All Pro 2nd team, signed a four-year, $28 million extension in April, 2013. Antrell Rolle signed a five year, $37 million deal with the Giants in 2010 when he was 27. It seems fair to venture that McCourty is in the $7 million per year average range. Right now, I have McCourty's 2014 cap number as $2,115,000. It seems safe to say that it will soon be closer to $5 million, be it an increase through the escalator or be it an increase through an extension.

Like Gregory, I see Adrian Wilson's spot on the Patriots dependent on how much space the Pats need to sign/extend their players like Talib, Wendell, and McCourty. The more cap space spent on that trio significantly increases the likelihood that the older and expensive veterans like Gregory, Tommy Kelly, and Adrian Wilson are all let go.

Tavon Wilson, whose percentage of defensive snaps played went from 43% in 2012 to 1% in 2013, is in danger of losing his roster spot to a rookie or first-year player earning a $420,000 salary. If Tavon is waived after June 1, the Pats would create over $350,000 in cap space.

As part of the new CBA there is a proven performance escalator for draft picks chosen in Round 3 through 7. Duron Harmon is eligible for it in 2016 . An eligible player will qualify for the Proven Performance Escalator in his fourth League Year if: (1) he participated in a minimum of 35% of his Club's offensive or defensive plays in any two of his previous three regular seasons; or (2) he participated in a "cumulative average" of at least 35% of his Club's offensive or defensive plays over his previous three regular seasons. Harmon played in 37% of the defensive snaps in 2013.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

If we are going to cut a safety early, I would hope that it is Adrian Wilson.

I would keep Gregory for the season.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

Gregory's 2014 cap number increased by $375,000 since my original post since he reached a playing-time incentive.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

Brian McIntyre has tweeted - "To clarify, McCourty had over 80% playing-time in EACH of the last years. That feat added $3M to 2014 base. His cap number is now $5.115M"
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

Cut Gregory and Adrian Wilson.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

So, you are fine with depending on Harman as a starter, and with Tavon WIlson and Ebner as our backups?

If not, there is no reason to cut either player without more information. In Adrian's case, he could be done. In Gregory's case, he is a starter. Until he is replaced, he's here.



Cut Gregory and Adrian Wilson.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

So, you are fine with depending on Harman as a starter, and with Tavon WIlson and Ebner as our backups?

If not, there is no reason to cut either player without more information. In Adrian's case, he could be done. In Gregory's case, he is a starter. Until he is replaced, he's here.

When you're cutting people for cap space, you'll always create holes in the roster. It would be better to have Gregory than not to have him, but better still to have $2.5M more in cap space.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

7 guys and only 3 can play football. Thats how you dont build a team right there.
 
Re: 2014 Pats Salary Cap Breakdown - Safeties

If you ignore the cost of filling the holes in the roster, you are under an illusion that you truly have created cap space. IMHO, cutting safety creates a major hole. If the idea is use the money for another safety, then simply cut Gregory when the new safety has been signed.

For me, there is no better use of cap money than for a starting or backup safety, other than re-signing Talib.

When you're cutting people for cap space, you'll always create holes in the roster. It would be better to have Gregory than not to have him, but better still to have $2.5M more in cap space.
 
I presume that we will carry five safeties, including at least one special teamer.

STARTERS: McCourty, Gregory
BACKUPS: Harmon, T. Wilson, A. Wilson
SPECIAL TEAMER: Ebner

Is suspect that we will bring in a couple of free agents for competition. Potential cap-related moves are

EXTEND GREGORY
This would save a little, and would add stability. If Harmon, T Wilson or a free agent take starting reps, then we would have a solid backup for a couple of years in Gregory.

CUT ADRIAN WILSON EARLY
This saves little. However, if Belichick sees him as done, then he should be cut.

CUT AND REPLACE GREGORY
This is a fine strategy if someone can be found who beats Gregory out in the preseason. Even then, you would be counting on Harmon and/or Wilson for major reps, since a #3 safety should be good enough to play some, and start if necessary

EXTEND MCCOURTY
This is the elephant in the room. If this is not done soon, we should be looking to adding a mid-level safety and keeping Gregory as a backup.

BOTTOM LINE
There may be a $1M or so cap help here. In any case, it makes little sense to cut Gregory before the preseason.
 
1. Extend McCourty. No-brainer, and it should lower his 2014 cap hit by $1-2M.
2. Cut Adrian Wilson. No-brainer. Saves $0.7M.
3. Don't do anything with Gregory until FA and the draft have played out. He's easily upgradeable, and depending on how things fall an upgrade may be there. If not, he can be left as it, or extended slightly to lower his cap hit.

I personally think that one of Gregory/T. Wilson probably won't be on the roster next year.
 
Extensions are never a no-brainer. Two parties must agree. Sometimes, such negotiations are easy, sometimes not. In any case, I do not think it a no-brainer that McCourty will be extended.
 
Adrian Wilson already assumes he won't be back, although he intends to play somewhere next season.
 
I really want someone to replace gregory...but that won't happen so oh well
 
1. Extend McCourty. No-brainer, and it should lower his 2014 cap hit by $1-2M.
2. Cut Adrian Wilson. No-brainer. Saves $0.7M.
3. Don't do anything with Gregory until FA and the draft have played out. He's easily upgradeable, and depending on how things fall an upgrade may be there. If not, he can be left as it, or extended slightly to lower his cap hit.

I personally think that one of Gregory/T. Wilson probably won't be on the roster next year.

Mayo, I just want to take this opportunity to give you a thumbs up on your signature. It seems every time you post I watch that runner score. It is amazing and never gets old.
 
To me, replacing Gregory is priority #1 this offseason.
 
I want to see more of Harmon before they go out and put a high pick or big contract into a new SS. Harmon played reasonably well at both FS and SS, and he showed an ability to put hits on WRs attempting catches down the sideline. I know he's not the "intimidating" SS that people want, but it looks like once his brain catches up to his body, he'll be a better player than Gregory.
 
Even if Safety were a high need, cutting Gregory wouldn't be a high need. He'd still be needed to compete for a backup reps.

Agreed. Safety is one of the least worrisome positions on this team.
 
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