The road to the playoffs, the only way in is the AFC East

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The really BIG game for the Pats this week is the Jets-Buffalo game. IF the Bills could somehow win this game, it would give the Jets another division loss. If this happens, then we actually root for the Jets against Miami.

In a three way tie, Miami is going to win, basically because they beat San Diego who has beaten both the Pats and the Jets. As long as it comes down to common opponents the Jets are screwed with losses to San Fran, Oakland, Denver.

If at the end the Pats are tied with the Jets and they have an identical division record as the Pats (let's assume everyone is 4-2 in the division), the Pats will win the tie because of a better record than the Jets versus common opponenets.

So the Pats could go 2-1 and Buffalo beats the Jets, and then the Jets beat Miami, the Pats will win the division.

Of course, all of this could change next week..........

:wha:

 

[BlitzFritz]

Actually, the Pats and Dolphins will have the same common opponent record in a 11-5 tiebreaker situation. Both teams lost to their two games based on last year record. The Pats lost to the Colts and Steelers and the Dolphins lost to the Texans and Ravens. The rest of the game are the same opponents. The Dolphins would win the conference record tiebreaker.

The Pats can't win the tiebreaker with either team at 11-5.

thank you. its amazing how many times we have covered this

 

[NEPatriot]

You need to win the next 3 games and we need to score a lot of points.

yesterday game was too close and i don't like it because we faced a 2-10 team. We won't make to the playoff if we play like this.

 

[PatsDeb]

It seems from all I've read the only way we are going to win the division (and make the playoffs as the WCs seem out of reach at this point) is if we win out and Miami and the Jets each lose one more game. Otherwise, we lose the tie breakers with both if two teams finish 11-5.

Edit - someone says above that we win the tie-breaker with the Jets at 11-5 b/c of more wins over common opponents. My way (Jets and Fins each lose one more as we win out) is easier, however.

 

[mesoslo]

Mia 8-5 - SF, @KC, @ NYJ
NYJ 8-5 - Buf, @Sea, Mia
NE 8-5 - @Oak, Arz, @Buf

If the jets win out and the pats win out, then the pats will get into the playoffs? So that means that on the final week, when the jets play the dolphins, even if they beat the dolphins they still dont get into the playoffs?

In the final week, the patriots and the jets both play the early game, woah talk about suspense, fans from both teams will be score board watching like crazy.

 

[PatsDeb]

If the jets win out and the pats win out, then the pats will get into the playoffs? So that means that on the final week, when the jets play the dolphins, even if they beat the dolphins they still dont get into the playoffs?

In the final week, the patriots and the jets both play the early game, woah talk about suspense, fans from both teams will be score board watching like crazy.

I brought this up some time ago - if there is no way the Jets can get in by week 17, but Miami will be in with a win, do you think Tubby Ratfink would throw the game in order to keep BB out of the playoffs? Just idle sports talk here.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

I thought Romo was supposed to be a superstar QB.

Only in the minds of Dallas people and ESPN. He's in the second tier of NFL QBs, if that.

 

[mesoslo]

Do you think miami will go 5-0 to end the season? I think Miami is due for a loss soon, unless of course the jets hand the game to miami on a silver plater.

 

[Rob0729]

It seems from all I've read the only way we are going to win the division (and make the playoffs as the WCs seem out of reach at this point) is if we win out and Miami and the Jets each lose one more game. Otherwise, we lose the tie breakers with both if two teams finish 11-5.

Edit - someone says above that we win the tie-breaker with the Jets at 11-5 b/c of more wins over common opponents. My way (Jets and Fins each lose one more as we win out) is easier, however.

Sorry, but the Jets will be 5-1 in the division if they win out. They win the tiebreaker.

The Pats could beat the Jets in a tie at 10-6 if they lose to the Bills or Dolphins because the Pats would have a better record vs. common opponents. The Pats can beat the Dolphins in a tie at 10-6 if they lose to the Jets because the Pats would have a better division record.

 

[vandergraafgenerator]

Only in the minds of Dallas people and ESPN. He's in the second tier of NFL QBs, if that.

I thought Tim Tebow and the guy from Oklahoma looked better TBH

 

[fumbrunner]

It seems from all I've read the only way we are going to win the division (and make the playoffs as the WCs seem out of reach at this point) is if we win out and Miami and the Jets each lose one more game. Otherwise, we lose the tie breakers with both if two teams finish 11-5.

Edit - someone says above that we win the tie-breaker with the Jets at 11-5 b/c of more wins over common opponents. My way (Jets and Fins each lose one more as we win out) is easier, however.

If the Jets win out, they would have a better divisional record. If Jets win out, or mia wins out, we are out of the playoffs.

 

[bakes781]

They need to lose to either SF or KC.

The Jets need to lose to either Mia or Buf.

The ideal situation would be for the Jets to lose to Buf but beat Mia. That would give NE the divisional tiebreaker over Mia and the Common Games tiebreaker versus the Jets, even if the Pats lose to Arz.

Ok but if my scenario played out:

Pats: oak=W, ari=L, buf=W
Phins: sf=W, kc=L, jets=W
Jets: buf=W, sea=L, mia=L

then the Pats & Phins would be tied for division, common AND conference record. So then what? lol

 

[fumbrunner]

Ok but if my scenario played out:

Pats: oak=W, ari=L, buf=W
Phins: sf=W, kc=L, jets=W
Jets: buf=W, sea=L, mia=L

then the Pats & Phins would be tied for division, common AND conference record. So then what? lol

You are right. They would be tied in this situation. It would go to strength of victory, whatever that means.

edit: here is the definition of strength of victory:
Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Examples: If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.


My head hurts....

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

If the jets win out and the pats win out, then the pats will get into the playoffs? So that means that on the final week, when the jets play the dolphins, even if they beat the dolphins they still dont get into the playoffs?

No, If the Jets win out then they will make the playoffs, either as the division winner (96% chance) or a wild card (4% chance). they will definitely have something to play for.

New York Jets Playoff Picture - Sports Club Stats

Assuming the Patriots win their next two, we Patriots fans will most likely be cheering for whichever of those two teams (Jets, Dolphins) loses a game in the next two weeks. If neither loses in the next two weeks, we will be cheering against Baltimore or Indianapolis, if either of them loses a game in the next two weeks.

If the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, and Colts all go 2-0 in the next two weeks, we will most likely be sitting at home not matter what when the playoffs start.

The only "save" I know of besides the Ravens or Colts losing twice, or the Jets and Dolphins both losing once, is for the Steelers to lose three times.

New England Patriots Playoff Picture - Sports Club Stats

It's not a pretty reality.

 

[bakes781]

I meant to say sea=W for the Jets, but in that scenario they'd lose out on the common opponents record regardless.

 

[bakes781]

You are right. They would be tied in this situation. It would go to strength of victory, whatever that means.

edit: here is the definition of strength of victory:
Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Examples: If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.


My head hurts....

Well thankfully the Jets wouldn't be apart of this discussion because their win over the Titans would probably trump all.

 

[Spiral]

If the Patriots finish at 11-5 and out of the playoffs, it will be a pretty bitter follow-up to the 2007 season. Get beat in the SB by an 11-5 team, then go 11-5 themselves the following year, but don't even make the playoffs. Ouch.

 

[ivanvamp]

So what we really need is for Miami to some how lose at KC & then for them to win at the Jets. Tall task I'd say.

I think Miami losing to SF is very much within the realm of possibility. I also think Miami beating the Jets is very much within the realm of possibility. And I think that NE winning the last 3 is very much within the realm of possibility. But what are the odds of all these things happening? Not so good.

We very well may be staring an 11-5, no playoff, scenario in the face. And that would be very disappointing, especially considering the fact that there could very well be 3 division winners (AFCW, NFCN, and NFCW) that don't have that many wins.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I still feel our best shot is the WC over Baltimore, man this is going to be a long week. Not just anxiously awaiting the Pats game, but we NEED Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore. If that happens, I'm confident Balti loses @ Dallas.

The Fins and Jets scheds don't have any teams near as hard as the next few the Ravens will be facing.

 

[ivanvamp]

If the Patriots finish at 11-5 and out of the playoffs, it will be a pretty bitter follow-up to the 2007 season. Get beat in the SB by an 11-5 team, then go 11-5 themselves the following year, but don't even make the playoffs. Ouch.

Worse, the Giants were just 10-6 last year, not 11-5.