The road to the playoffs, the only way in is the AFC East

[upstater1]

If the Jets win out, they would have a better divisional record. If Jets win out, or mia wins out, we are out of the playoffs.

Not if the Ravens lose 2. If we win out and the Ravens lose 2, we're in.

 

[fumbrunner]

Not if the Ravens lose 2. If we win out and the Ravens lose 2, we're in.

Correct. But the way the Ravens are playing.....

 

[upstater1]

Bottomline
if jets and fins win next 2 and balt wins 1 of 2, pats last game at Buf is kinda meaningless regardless if we win next two....i think
if balt drops 2 then jets need to beat miami in the last game for us to go in as WC

No. If Baltimore drops 2 than New England and the winner of Jets/Miami go to the playoffs in your scenario. The team that loses the miami/Jets game is out of the playoffs.

 

[upstater1]

Let me clarify something. Assume the Patriots win all 3.

1. If the Ravens lose 2, the Patriots are in.

2. If the Jets lose 1 and beat the Phins, the Patriots are in.

3. If the Phins lose 1 and beat the Jets, the Patriots are in.

4. If the Patriots lose to Arizona, they can win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and then beat the Jets.

In that case (and I know it's a longshot) the Patriots get in over Miami because div. and common opps and conference record are even, and we go to strength of wins. Currently, the Patriots are ahead of the Phins 99 to 71 on the fifth tiebreaker.

I've given you 4 scenarios for the Patriots getting in, one of which allows a loss to the Cardinals.

If the Phins lose to Kansas City, the Patriots have a 50/50 shot of getting in even with a loss to Arizona.

 

[upstater1]

Correct. But the way the Ravens are playing.....

I hear you, I saw the game last night. On the other hand, I'm hoping it was the Redskins. The Cowboys and Steelers will give them more difficulty.

 

[fumbrunner]

Let me clarify something. Assume the Patriots win all 3.

1. If the Ravens lose 2, the Patriots are in.

2. If the Jets lose 1 and beat the Phins, the Patriots are in.

3. If the Phins lose 1 and beat the Jets, the Patriots are in.

4. If the Patriots lose to Arizona, they can win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City or SF and then beat the Jets.

5. If the Patriots lose to Arizona, they can win the division IF the Jets lose to Buf and beat the Phins.

a couple more scenarios

 

[tombonneau]

We very well may be staring an 11-5, no playoff, scenario in the face.

I don't agree with this. What gives me solace, is that only once in the past 20 years or whatever has an 11-5 team missed the playoffs. (It was Denver way back when ...).

So that tells me that if the Pats just hunker down and win their games, history overwhelmingly favors that other factors will occur that will result in their making the playoffs.

In fact, my guess is if Vegas offered a bet of "If the Patriots Finish 11-5 They Make the Playoffs" your odds would be something like -500 if not better.

 

[mesoslo]

talk about heart breaker, the patriots loose TB in the first quarter of the first week, and they finish 11-5 and dont make it into the playoffs.

 

[SVN]

to summarize our chances right now are not very good.
next week both jets and fins play 1pmgames so by the time pats play the situation might improve or move closer to the end but we can talk about all the scenarios but we all know our chances dont look good. i dont know why when we lost to the steelers i felt if we win the next 3 we will be in but yet after winning yesterday and jets losing we end up being 3rd right now in the standings and chances look slimmer.

 

[mesoslo]

I just hope the jets dont make it into the playoffs

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I just hope the jets dont make it into the playoffs

Normally I'd agree with you, but the pleasure of watching yet another year of Lord Favre tossing pick after pick in a demoralizing playoff loss is to much to forgo.

 

[Disco Volante]

4. If the Patriots lose to Arizona, they can win the division IF the Phins lose to Kansas City and then beat the Jets.

That's actually not all too crazy of a scenario.

 

[upstater1]

to summarize our chances right now are not very good.
next week both jets and fins play 1pmgames so by the time pats play the situation might improve or move closer to the end but we can talk about all the scenarios but we all know our chances dont look good. i dont know why when we lost to the steelers i felt if we win the next 3 we will be in but yet after winning yesterday and jets losing we end up being 3rd right now in the standings and chances look slimmer.

I think our chances look pretty good, at least 50/50.

 

[alamo]

Does anyone know what the "Strength of Victory" is? I have no idea? But it is the 5th tiebreaker.

The sum total of points you beat your opponents by. This is why the cries about running up the score crap is BS. Running up the score can play a factor in the tiebreakers.

As has been pointed out already, this is completely wrong. It is "strength of schedule" for your victories only.

Edit - someone says above that we win the tie-breaker with the Jets at 11-5 b/c of more wins over common opponents.

As has been pointed out already, this is also wrong. If either the Jets or the Dolphins win their three remaining games they win the division, no matter what the Patriots do.

It's depressing that this was covered in a couple of threads last night, and for some reason everyone starts new ones rather than reading the old ones.

 

[upstater1]

As has been pointed out already, this is completely wrong. It is "strength of schedule" for your victories only.



As has been pointed out already, this is also wrong. If either the Jets or the Dolphins win their three remaining games they win the division, no matter what the Patriots do.

It's depressing that this was covered in a couple of threads last night, and for some reason everyone starts new ones rather than reading the old ones.

Last night's threads didn't cover all the scenarios. They didn't cover losses by the Jets, Phins, to AFC teams, and New England losing to Arizona. This is why we are discussing tiebreakers below conference record, because it's possible that the teams could be tied up to the 5th tiebreaker.