The Pats will go 19-0 this year if healthy

[supafly]

The 95% chance in every game was just an exaggerated example showing how hard it would be to go undefeated. Nobody in their right mind actually thinks the Pats would be that favored.

Regards,
Chris

Thanks, man. I actually thought the number came from some media outlet projection. I didn't realize that you were just using that as a random example. No wonder I was having difficulty grasping it.

 

[K. Dog]

Here's what I worry about, in order of worry

(1) Ninkovich is one year slower and wasn't that fast last year either, Long is gone, Sheard is gone, Ealy is unblooded and Flowers cant do it alone

(2) we forget how good Marty Bennett was

(3) we may find that Logan Ryan was much better than we thought at the time

(4) a bad hamstring at OT (knock wood) could be real trouble for Brady

(5) turnovers happen

(6) Belichick may trade just about anyone at the most inopportune moment, like he did with Milloy, Collins, Mankins...and some roster spot that we think is all sewn up may suddenly have a gaping sink hole

(7) Patrick Chung...I'm just not sure

(8) will the culture take with the newcomers, Gilmore, Cooks, Allen, Gilleslee? I don't worry about Burkhead for some reason. Bennett and Long were instrumental in adopting and setting the culture among the incoming veterans

A rare voice of common sense.

 

[K. Dog]

Thanks, man. I actually thought the number came from some media outlet projection. I didn't realize that you were just using that as a random example. No wonder I was having difficulty grasping it.

The number comes from the fact that if the Pats had a 95% chance to win each game they played then the odds they go 19-0 are about 38%.

It's a numeric measure of how preposterous the idea of planning on the Pats going 19-0 is.

 

[supafly]

The number comes from the fact that if the Pats had a 95% chance to win each game they played then the odds they go 19-0 are about 38%.

It's a numeric measure of how preposterous the idea of planning on the Pats going 19-0 is.

Yes, I understand that. I didn't know where the 95% figure came from, though. That's what I had a hard time grasping. I've seen media outlet projections who use specific percentages for each game (like ESPN), and somehow assumed they may have come up with that.

I certainly agree that it's a ridiculous discussion and have made that clear, but the 95 and subsequent 38 percent figures were baffling to me. Thanks to both of you for clarifying.

 

[supafly]

A rare voice of common sense.

It isn't necessarily those specific concerns that worry me, as many are similar in one form or another, from year to year. The names may change, but the same general concept remains constant. Every team has questions and weaknesses.

I'm more concerned with the 2 games in a row in mile high (plus) altitude, the 5/6 game road streak ending in Pittsburgh, the usual harder than expected divisional games, and the fact that we play good teams like ATL, DEN, PIT, and OAK in 1/4 of the schedule.

 

[BTTA]

This thread is the capstone of the term someone here coined - "Patriots' Privilege"....no other fan spot would even thing about posting this thread. I love it.

Let's argue about it some more!

 

[fnordcircle]

19-0, if you don't agree gfy

 

[fnordcircle]

GFY @archstanton543 !!!!!!~!!!