The Official Julian Edelman Bandwagon

[Ivan]

Randy Moss was 31 years old in the offseason following his 2007 season. He got 3 years at $9M a year, and didn't even get to play that out.

And his deal was constricted by attitude issues that plagued him throughourt his career and ended that deal prematurely. So you are comparing welker to a first ballot HOF WR but don't think he should be paid like Holmes and Garcon?

As I said before they should not have tagged him at all if they weren't going to pay him, they did so because they knew someone else would pay him, that's indisputable.

Had they taken your advice they would have had another 2nd las year and would never have sniffed the Super bowl last season, great advice.

 

[JJDChE]

OK. I'll repost these stats.

Let's use FootballOutsiders metrics, which account for targets and usage. Let's use Welker for frame of reference. Keep in mind 2010 was Welker's worst year coming off the ACL.

Julian Edelman 2010 DVOA: -29.1%
Julian Edelman 2011 DVOA: -46.8%
Welker 2010 DVOA: 4.1%
Welker 2011 DVOA: 20.4%

AdvancedNFLStats metrics, which also accounts for targets and game situation:

Julian Edelman 2010 EPA (Expected Points Added): -.04
Julian Edelman 2011 EPA (Expected Points Added): -17.5
Welker 2010 EPA (Expected Points Added): 36.8
Welker 2011 EPA (Expected Points Added): 115.8 (led all receivers)

Julian Edelman 2010 Success Rate: 44.4%
Julian Edelman 2011 Success Rate: 33.3%
Welker 2010 Success Rate: 57.1%
Welker 2011 Success Rate: 66.2%

Short of going back and watching every snap these guys took, this is as close as you can get to what you want to see. And this is what it shows.

If you took Edelman's EPA per play in 2011, for instance, it is -.83, which is so bad it doesn't even register on their website, since the worst receiver they show is Andre Caldwell at -.39, which itself is historically low compared to other seasons.

Again, if we go back a year earlier, we see Edelman was a pretty effective slot receiver. 2009 stats: -.5% DVOA; 15.5EPA in limited play, which is good; 52.3% success rate. But he hasn't done that since.

Conclusion, and I don't know how to make this any simpler:

Edelman played well in the slot in 2009. He has performed rather poorly in limited snaps since.

What is there to argue with there? We all hope the guy improves and becomes the jack-of-all-trades we want him to be. But to deny his noteworthy ineffectiveness in the last two seasons is foolish.

The stats are useless to describe Edelman's performance, and pretty much any situation player. If he was on the field more for his blocking prowess than his receiving prowess (which I think we can all agree is probably the more likely reason he was on the field), then these stats do him a disservice.

It's like using a screwdriver to put in a thumbtack. Wrong tool for the job.

 

[Ivan]

The stats are useless to describe Edelman's performance, and pretty much any situation player. If he was on the field more for his blocking prowess than his receiving prowess (which I think we can all agree is probably the more likely reason he was on the field), then these stats do him a disservice.

It's like using a screwdriver to put in a thumbtack. Wrong tool for the job.

Couldn't agree more, completely biased binky fantasies are a much more accurate gauge.

 

[JJDChE]

Why on earth would they use a franchise tag on a player who was never going to see a big deal anyways?

You really need to think about that question yourself.

 

[BSR]

Couldn't agree more, completely biased binky fantasies are a much more accurate gauge.

Oh the irony...

 

[JJDChE]

Couldn't agree more, completely biased binky fantasies are a much more accurate gauge.

Pipe down, the adults are talking now.

 

[Deus Irae]

The stats are useless to describe Edelman's performance, and pretty much any situation player. If he was on the field more for his blocking prowess than his receiving prowess (which I think we can all agree is probably the more likely reason he was on the field), then these stats do him a disservice.

It's like using a screwdriver to put in a thumbtack. Wrong tool for the job.

If it was about run blocking, it would be Slater out there.

 

[Sciz]

Steve Smith is 33 years old. He just signed a 4 year, $38 million dollar extension (18 million guaranteed, last year is a team option) with the Panthers.

Let's just call that contract what it really is. It's a 3-year, $21.75M contract plus a year at $7 that Smith probably won't see and a year at $9M that he's definitely not going to see. Definitely not a bad deal for an old WR, but Welker would be insulted if the Pats offered him the same thing.

 

[Ivan]

Who was the last 31 year old receiver to get a 5 year deal at all, much less for $10M a year?

When a team puts a franchise tag on a player they are conceding that player is worth a fair market deal for their production at their position and they have a requirement under the CBA to make a good faith offer, the Patriots failed to do so and his detractors here are arguing that to do so would be "crazy.".

 

[Sciz]

So you are comparing welker to a first ballot HOF WR but don't think he should be paid like Holmes and Garcon?

How many more years do you think Welker can play like a $9M receiver?

If you say 5 or more, then you're delusional.

If you say 4 or less, then stop comparing him to guys who got 5 year deals.

 

[Deus Irae]

Let's just call that contract what it really is. It's a 3-year, $21.75M contract plus a year at $7 that Smith probably won't see and a year at $9M that he's definitely not going to see. Definitely not a bad deal for an old WR, but Welker would be insulted if the Pats offered him the same thing.

He gets $28.75 million in the first 3 years.

 

[JJDChE]

If it was about run blocking, it would be Slater out there.

Your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Ivan]

Pipe down, the adults are talking now.

You have backed up your argument with nothing, don't consider that "adult." The facts are completely on my side, that's "adult," not your Edelman fantasies. Welker's production and the Patriots use of a Franchise tag on him demonstrate his value, regardless of your madden skewed fantasies.

Much as i love this team i'm still able to call bullsh.t when they act in a manner that deserves it, and this is bullsh.t. they should not have tagged him if they weren't going to make him a real offer.

 

[Deus Irae]

Your guess is as good as mine.

Slater is the best blocker of the Patriots WRs. If it was really about run blocking, he'd be on the field. I'm not sure what you think is supposed to be a "guess" there.

 

[JJDChE]

You have backed up your argument with nothing, don't consider that "adult." The facts are completely on my side, that's "adult," not your Edelman fantasies. Welker's production and the Patriots use of a Franchise tag on him demonstrate his value, regardless of your madden skewed fantasies.

Much as i love this team i'm still able to call bullsh.t when they act in a manner that deserves it, and this is bullsh.t. they should not have tagged him if they weren't going to make him a real offer.

You don't even know what my argument is. Why are you even talking about Welker's contract? That has nothing to do with Edelman's production. Go spew your agenda somewhere relevant.

 

[Ivan]

How many more years do you think Welker can play like a $9M receiver?

If you say 5 or more, then you're delusional.

If you say 4 or less, then stop comparing him to guys who got 5 year deals.

lmao, this from the guy who said they should get rid of him 2 years ago.

Gotta say, you nailed it when you said he was just going to get worse and they should dump him a couple of years ago. How did that work out for you?



keep on moving those goalposts, someday you are sure to be right.

 

[DaBruinz]

In three seasons plus two games in 2012, (2009-2012) he has a total of 54 receptions and only one touchdown scored as a receiver (2009).

Numbers that are not very impressive.

What were Welker's numbers for his 1st 3 seasons?

Also, was Welker learning a new position? No. Welker had played the position all through college.

 

[JJDChE]

Slater is the best blocker of the Patriots WRs. If it was about run blocking, he'd be on the field. I'm not sure what you think is supposed to be a "guess" there.

You've seen a lot of side-by-sides of Edelman and Slater blocking, have you?

In any case, it's clearly not ALL about blocking. That wouldn't make much sense now, would it?

 

[Ivan]

You don't even know what my argument is. Why are you even talking about Welker's contract? That has nothing to do with Edelman's production. Go spew your agenda somewhere relevant.

Your point was that Edelman beat out Welker, which means he is a better player, and that is 100% garbage.

 

[JJDChE]

Your point was that Edelman beat out Welker, which means he is a better player, and that is 100% garbage.

:nooo:


Strike one.