The Official Julian Edelman Bandwagon

[JJDChE]

The franchise team requires the team applying to bargain in good faith, the Patriots never did that and had Welker challenged it then through arbitration then it would have been removed and he would have gotten a deal that reflects his value, 5-6 years 50 million would have been fair market value for a player who has outproduced every other receiver in football for the past 5 years. people hear can be as outraged as they want by my saying that but no-one can look at his production and argue otherwise. The Patriots put the franchise tag on him because they knew other teams would offer him deals they would not be willing to match and they were not going to take that chance, good move on their part, where they failed was in living up to the requirements of that tag under the CBA and never bargaining in good faith, scumbag move o their part. The franchise tag was designed to give teams an extended opportunity to make a deal with their best players, not to simply deny those players the opportunity to test the open market, which is what the Patriots did. The drunks, crackheads, and fanboys around here are those who suggest they did live up to their obligations under the CBA and shriek that he should have taken whatever he was offered.

How would you know whether they bargained in good faith?

 

[BradyManny]

So you're comparing an outside receiver who runs deeper routes with a QB who can throw deeper routes against one used in the slot with a QB who can't throw deeper routes (look up the stats). And you're comparing one season's stats for a sub but ignoring previous seasons (you know, when Edelman did perform when asked to step up). I don't think 16 catches in three years for an outside receiver would be considered good production by posters on this board (exibit A is Brandon Tate).

Well, actually, you are the one who began the comparison to Barden. Not me.

Next, no one is debating Edelman's merit as a slot receiver. We're debating the merit of using him as the 2nd WR in the base 2WR2TE, where he will be asked to do more than run underneath and catch bubble screens.

I don't know how many posts I have to make where I declare Edelman is an effective slot receiver but has been (statistically) one of the least effective in the receivers in the league the last two seasons otherwise before people stop confusing my posts with Edelman bashing.

Last, I have to take those deep ball stats with a grain of salt. The one time in Brady's career when he had a legitimate deep threat, he lit up the deep portion of the field. He still throws a well thrown deep ball and still has a huge arm. Consider he's missed on three deep throws this year that would've been TDs. Two of those were the receivers inability to get under the ball, and the third was a miscommunication.

 

[Sciz]

and he would have gotten a deal that reflects his value, 5-6 years 50 million would have been fair market value for a player who has outproduced every other receiver in football for the past 5 years.

Those numbers are laughable. That'd be a horrendous contract for any team.

 

[JJDChE]

Well, actually, you are the one who began the comparison to Barden. Not me.

Next, no one is debating Edelman's merit as a slot receiver. We're debating the merit of using him as the 2nd WR in the base 2WR2TE, where he will be asked to do more than run underneath and catch bubble screens.

I don't know how many posts I have to make where I declare Edelman is an effective slot receiver but has been (statistically) one of the least effective in the receivers in the league the last two seasons otherwise before people stop confusing my posts with Edelman bashing.

Last, I have to take those deep ball stats with a grain of salt. The one time in Brady's career when he had a legitimate deep threat, he lit up the deep portion of the field. He still throws a well thrown deep ball and still has a huge arm. Consider he's missed on three deep throws this year that would've been TDs. Two of those were the receivers inability to get under the ball, and the third was a miscommunication.

Seriously, though, those production v. snap count numbers are useless without some other information. You at least need some idea of down and distance and play call. These aren't guys who are on the field for the majority of plays, they are put on the field in very select situations. If Barden is on the field in 3-wide sets on 3rd and 8 or more and Edelman is in on 2WR2TE on 2nd and 5 or less, who are you expecting to be more productive? That information needs to be there for situational players to make any kind of comparison.

 

[Ivan]

Those numbers are laughable. That'd be a horrendous contract for any team.

Sciz, you wanted to trade him 2 years ago and claimed he wasn't worth a good deal then, and he's certainly worth as much as Santonio Holmes and Pierre Garcon, feel free to argue otherwise.

 

[JJDChE]

Those numbers are laughable. That'd be a horrendous contract for any team.

Unless the base salary was severely backloaded. I think an average of 8-9 mil/yr for the first three years and everything after that pretty much at the team's discretion would be a reasonable deal.

 

[Kontradiction]

The whole point is that there is no data. Use snap counts from the last few years if you want, but that data is garbage.

How has the data that has been presented garbage? They're completely relevant as they apply how effective he was as a contributor in the passing offense.

First of all, were all those snaps pass downs? Second, what option was he when he was in the game? How many times was he the first or second option when he was on the field? Brady is great at going through is progressions, but in reality the play is going to the #1 or #2 option 90% of the time. Particularly when the top few options are great players.

You're coming dangerously close to a red herring here. As far as the options go, your original contention was that Edelman can't perform to Welker's level because he has so many different options around him. You've then igored that Welker has performed at that level even while being double bracketed on top of the fact that defenses keying on those options (including Welker) should have opened up things even more for Edelman. According to Brady, his favorite target is the open receiver. In that case, why is Welker having more success than Edelman even though he is trying to shake two defenders vs. Edelman's one? If Edelman was truly the replacement for the best slot receiver in the game today, wouldn't we have seen more out of him?

Two games. He's caught all but one of his targets, I think. Give him a legit shot.

He's had legit shots since 2009. He's simply not the best option to be on the field with Lloyd.

Who is saying he's Wes Welker? I don't think ANYONE has EVER said that.

People are inferring that he could be Wes Welker when they say that he can replace Welker seamlessly.

Your assessment is premature.

No, it really isn't. I'm working with three years of evidence.

'By all accounts'...puh-lease. I'm certain that isn't Bill Belichick's account of the situation. What do you think?

Belichick isn't infallible, as much as you'd like to believe he is. That's evidenced by moves such as trading Seymour and his assessment of the WR position as early as this offseason.

 

[Sciz]

Sciz, you wanted to trade him 2 years ago and claimed he wasn't worth a good deal then, and he's certainly worth as much as Santonio Holmes and Pierre Garcon, feel free to argue otherwise.

You can't use two bad contracts to rationalize a hypothetical third. But the biggest issue you're ignoring is age. Holmes was 27 when he signed his contract and will be 31 for the final year (if he gets there). Garcon is 26 and will be 30 for the last year. Welker is 31 and would be 35 in the last year of a five year deal. Do you see the difference?

 

[Kontradiction]

There have been many threads that advocate cutting Edelman and other young players (Tate, Brace, Cunningham, and just about every other young player who doesn't make the pro bowl out of their first camp). It's one of the primary topics on this board.

New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

Perhaps you could locate one for me?

 

[Ivan]

You can't use two bad contracts to rationalize a hypothetical third. But the biggest issue you're ignoring is age. Holmes was 27 when he signed his contract and will be 31 for the final year (if he gets there). Garcon is 26 and will be 30 for the last year. Welker is 31 and would be 35 in the last year of a five year deal. Do you see the difference?

You wanted to get rid of him when he was 28-29 for the same reasons, and market value is market value, I was reasonable and did not invoke Calvin Johnson's deal. The Patriots knew another team would offer him that kind of money so they tagged him, it was then their responsibility to come up with a fair market offer, which they never did, that is what my issue with all of this is. If they don't value him and don't want him then fine, dumb as that may be, however they did not have the right to simply deny him his shot at that deal, which is what they did. no matter how much I love the Patriots and respect Belichick's abilities that does not give them the right to flat out scum bag a player, and that is what they have done here.

 

[Sciz]

You wanted to get rid of him when he was 28-29 for the same reasons, and market value is market value, I was reasonable and did not invoke Calvin Johnson's deal. The Patriots knew another team would offer him that kind of money so they tagged him, it was then their responsibility to come up with a fair market offer, which they never did, that is what my issue with all of this is. If they don't value him and don't want him then fine, dumb as that may be, however they did not have the right to simply deny him his shot at that deal, which is what they did. no matter how much I love the Patriots and respect Belichick's abilities that does not give them the right to flat out scum bag a player, and that is what they have done here.

Who was the last 31 year old receiver to get a 5 year deal at all, much less for $10M a year?

 

[Deus Irae]

Edelman at 26 and $1.5 million/yr is a better value to the TEAM than Welker at 33 and $8 million/yr.

I don't think there are many at all claiming Edelman is a better WR (or even in the same universe at WR) than Welker at this time.

If this were Major League Baseball or the NBA, the Pats would have Welker, Megatron, Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz lining up with Gronk and Hernandez in the 4 WR/2TE "End of the World Offense".

.....but this is the NFL.

You have absolutely no idea if the bolded claim is true. In fact, to this point in their careers, the opposite has pretty obviously been the case. And the "but this is the NFL" line is meaningless. The Patriots clearly have the money for Welker. If they didn't, he wouldn't be fitting under the cap and would be gone already, because of NFL rules.

 

[Ivan]

Who was the last 31 year old receiver to get a 5 year deal at all, much less for $10M a year?

Who was the last 30-31 year old receiver to produce at the level Welker has?

You didn't want to pay him when he was 28, why would you want to pay him now?

 

[BradyManny]

Seriously, though, those production v. snap count numbers are useless without some other information. You at least need some idea of down and distance and play call. These aren't guys who are on the field for the majority of plays, they are put on the field in very select situations. If Barden is on the field in 3-wide sets on 3rd and 8 or more and Edelman is in on 2WR2TE on 2nd and 5 or less, who are you expecting to be more productive? That information needs to be there for situational players to make any kind of comparison.

OK. I'll repost these stats.

Let's use FootballOutsiders metrics, which account for targets and usage. Let's use Welker for frame of reference. Keep in mind 2010 was Welker's worst year coming off the ACL.

Julian Edelman 2010 DVOA: -29.1%
Julian Edelman 2011 DVOA: -46.8%
Welker 2010 DVOA: 4.1%
Welker 2011 DVOA: 20.4%

AdvancedNFLStats metrics, which also accounts for targets and game situation:

Julian Edelman 2010 EPA (Expected Points Added): -.04
Julian Edelman 2011 EPA (Expected Points Added): -17.5
Welker 2010 EPA (Expected Points Added): 36.8
Welker 2011 EPA (Expected Points Added): 115.8 (led all receivers)

Julian Edelman 2010 Success Rate: 44.4%
Julian Edelman 2011 Success Rate: 33.3%
Welker 2010 Success Rate: 57.1%
Welker 2011 Success Rate: 66.2%

Short of going back and watching every snap these guys took, this is as close as you can get to what you want to see. And this is what it shows.

If you took Edelman's EPA per play in 2011, for instance, it is -.83, which is so bad it doesn't even register on their website, since the worst receiver they show is Andre Caldwell at -.39, which itself is historically low compared to other seasons.

Again, if we go back a year earlier, we see Edelman was a pretty effective slot receiver. 2009 stats: -.5% DVOA; 15.5EPA in limited play, which is good; 52.3% success rate. But he hasn't done that since.

Conclusion, and I don't know how to make this any simpler:

Edelman played well in the slot in 2009. He has performed rather poorly in limited snaps since.

What is there to argue with there? We all hope the guy improves and becomes the jack-of-all-trades we want him to be. But to deny his noteworthy ineffectiveness in the last two seasons is foolish.

 

[Deus Irae]

You don't get it.

Hernandez and Edelman for the next 8 years >>>>>>> Welker for the next 8 years.

This is a red herring. The 8 years portion is completely irrelevant, and the pairing of Edelman with Hernandez is nonsensical.

 

[Ivan]

Who was the last 31 year old receiver to get a 5 year deal at all, much less for $10M a year?

Why on earth would they use a franchise tag on a player who was never going to see a big deal anyways?

 

[Sciz]

Who was the last 30-31 year old receiver to produce at the level Welker has?

Randy Moss was 31 years old in the offseason following his 2007 season. He got 3 years at $9M a year, and didn't even get to play that out.

 

[Sfpat]

New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

Perhaps you could locate one for me?

You're either joking or have never been on this board (and your number of posts would state otherwise)

 

[Deus Irae]

Randy Moss was 31 years old in the offseason following his 2007 season. He got 3 years at $9M a year, and didn't even get to play that out.

Steve Smith is 33 years old. He just signed a 4 year, $38 million dollar extension (18 million guaranteed, last year is a team option) with the Panthers.

 

[JJDChE]

How has the data that has been presented garbage? They're completely relevant as they apply how effective he was as a contributor in the passing offense.

It's not useful. Garbage. They haven't been putting Edelman on the field to catch passes the last two years. He's been a situational offensive player. I think we can all agree that he was never a top 2 or 3 option on any given play, so it's not surprising at all that he hasn't been productive.

The last two games he's been on the field more as an option. His production hasn't been great, but it's been better than zero and this is his first time playing in that outside receiver role. He needs a chance to get comfortable.

You're coming dangerously close to a red herring here. As far as the options go, your original contention was that Edelman can't perform to Welker's level because he has so many different options around him.

That wasn't my contention. My contention was he is always going to be farther down in the progressions when Gronk, AH, Wes and Lloyd are on the field with him. That limits his legitimate looks even if he's on the field for a lot of snaps. I.e. he hasn't really had 'legit shots' until this year.

You've then igored that Welker has performed at that level even while being double bracketed on top of the fact that defenses keying on those options (including Welker) should have opened up things even more for Edelman. According to Brady, his favorite target is the open receiver.

I've ignored nothing. You're having this argument with yourself. Nobody is saying Edelman is better than Welker.

The old 'open receiver' line isn't true anymore. Brady forces it in to Welker and Gronk far too often. Hard to blame him, but it's true. Welker doesn't have one of the worst reception/target ratios in the league because he's a bad receiver (though his hands aren't great), it's because Brady forces it to him so often.

If Edelman was truly the replacement for the best slot receiver in the game today, wouldn't we have seen more out of him?

AGAIN (Seriously, dude, pay attention), no one is saying he's a 1-for-1 replacement for Wes. That doesn't mean he won't be our slot receiver next year.

No, it really isn't. I'm working with three years of evidence.

No, you're not. You're working with two games.

If you think he's been on the field as a legit passing option prior to two weeks ago (and 2009), then you're lying to yourself.

Belichick isn't infallible, as much as you'd like to believe he is. That's evidenced by moves such as trading Seymour and his assessment of the WR position as early as this offseason.

This isn't about infallibility. I don't mind him trying Edelman out early in the season to see what he has in real time, even at the expense of Welker's snaps. Nor do I have a problem with replacing Wes with Edelman if it comes to that. Edelman probably won't live up to Wes's production, but he doesn't have to. That's for AHern to live up to.