The Offensive Line

[Box_O_Rocks]

If your #1 priority is to replace Kaczur at RT in 2009 then I agree with you. But if you look at the long term then I think Beatty offers tremendous value.

Beatty is a pure LT prospect. He has unteachable footwork and agility. He needs to get a bit stronger and more physical, but that is teachable. His ceiling is a 10 year pro bowl LT. I disagree with your assessment that only Meredith is considered a potential LT - Beatty is as a pure LT prospect as there is in the draft.

The most likely scenario is that Beatty would back up Light in 2009 while working on his conditioning and strength, but I suspect that by mid-late season he might merit considerable reps at left tackle. Light moving to RT would be an upgrade over Kaczur, and Kaczur could potentially move to RG as a backup long-term solution for Stephen Neal. With Kaczur able to play LT, RT and OG we would have tremendous depth and versatility compared to what we have now. In addition, with all of the OL contracts which expire after 2009 (Kaczur, Levoir, Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Yates) he would give some long-term insurance. We would go into 2010 with Beatty and Light as our starting OTs set.

Okay, your plan is to draft Light's replacement at the end of Round One, groom him behind the current starters this season, then move him into Light's slot and reshuffle the O-line for 2010... Do you really think Scar and BB are thinking that way?

Light is an eight year starting LT on a team that went to five AFCCs and four Super Bowls in that time frame. Kaczur is a four year starting OT on a team that went to two AFCC and one Super Bowl while he was here. Neither looks like they are declining, in fact Kaczur is getting more comfortable the longer he plays at RT.

LeVoir is good insurance, Beatty does not upgrade him that I can see. I'm not buying the "need" or the value for a Day One OT. I see good value in the mid rounds and good projects in the late rounds/UDFA. Beatty is an extravagance I'm not buying - but he might help one of the kids who can help this team last to the next NE pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

Okay, your plan is to draft Light's replacement at the end of Round One, groom him behind the current starters this season, then move him into Light's slot and reshuffle the O-line for 2010... Do you really think Scar and BB are thinking that way?

Quite possibly, if Beatty is available at #23. The chance to pass up a 10 year starter at LOT may be too good to pass up. Light will be 33 going into the 2011 season (his contract expires after 2010). Kaczur and Levoir are up after 2009, as is Neal (who will be 33 this year and is injury prone and has trouble playing a full season). Beatty/Light/Kaczur/Levoir for solidify the OT position, and with Kaczur potentially playing ROG would solidfy the interior line as well, both now and for the future.

I don't have your cyrstal ball into what Scar and BB are thinking, but I don't think this is an unreasonable possibility.

 

[dryheat44]

Interesting challenge, eh? Question for you: Belichick and Pioli & Co. negotiated these contracts that have Neal, Mankins, and Kaczur all reaching a contract year in 2009, do we suppose they had something in mind when planning this? Note how Seymour, Green, and Wilfork all come due in at the end of this season too. That's not a coincidence. We could argue about whether each of their agents was looking ahead to an uncapped season, but the common participant in each negotiation was NE's Front Office - there is a plan.

There may or may not be a plan. I think the "plan" was to maintain flexibility to pursue different plans.

So, there's a plan. Do you honestly expect their answer was the draft? My crystal ball doesn't work that way and I doubt they have a better one - so they had a plan with answers that did not rely on the draft class being so deep. I expect them to take advantage of this pool of picks and this deep OL draft class, but I'm not replacing three starters in this draft.

I'm not replacing three starters either in this draft (although it could accidently happen), but it seems to be a foregone conclusion that we're drafting a guard/center. And I think if the best value is OT at #23, BB won't hesitate to use it. Again, I don't think there's a specific plan. I don't think there could really be a plan when the future was as cloudy as it was when inking all those contracts. The NHL went through the same thing about four years ago. Smart teams tried to maintain flexibility in their payroll commitments so they could adapt to whatever the new market conditions and bargaining conditions were going to be.

Let's look at this another way: does NE hold the right to any OT capable of starting in the absence of Light or Kaczur? Yup, LeVoir, in an uncapped league he's ERFA/RFA for a while. NE loses Kaczur after 2009, LeVoir gets his job. That's 3/5s of the OL covered for 2010. What have you and I been doing all these weeks talking about wanting Eric Wood? Ochmed talking about Max Unger? We are looking to this draft for one OL capable of starting at all three interior OL slots. I don't recall that any of us wanted them to replace one of the three, but we each are talking about improving the depth at the position because 2009 is a contract year for 2 of 3, and Neal's injury history demands a stronger insurance plan then the one Yates provided last Fall. There's one second round draft pick joining LeVoir as a solid plan in the event of OL meltdown. 4/5s covered through 2010 - that gives you the 2010 and 2011 drafts to plug holes at starter and reserve - what me worry?

Then this seems not to jibe with your labeling of offensive line as a Level 3 (out of 4) priority. I'm not assuming anybody not currently under contract for 2010 will be at a later date, with the exception of Mankins. I like Levoir...he was in most of my mock drafts for the Pats three years ago. However, he's done nothing to prove himself good enough that we ignore upgrades if available.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I like Levoir...he was in most of my mock drafts for the Pats three years ago. However, he's done nothing to prove himself good enough that we ignore upgrades if available.

Then by all means, let us upgrade. Whom do you see Day One who is likely to be there when NE picks who upgrades LeVoir? Myself, I just did the exercise above with Beatty, Britton, and Meredith and I don't value any of them over what LeVoir showed me this past season. Frankly, none of them even read like a NE OT - not one mention of "nasty" anywhere in their profiles...pity that.

 

[Water Boy]

I'm not 100% sure if Mankins is a UFA or an RFA in an uncapped 2010? It will be his sixth season so I suspect he will be an RFA and can be tendered at 110% of his 2009 salary.

I hope you're right. Sorry Logan.

 

[Water Boy]

This is one of those yers that Pat's may just surprise everyone. I remember them taking Mankins in rd one- alot of people had no idea who he was.

I'm kind of baffled why so many people were surprised by that pick. I am a complete ham 'n egger draft-nick, but even I saw that pick coming a mile away. The Pats did not resign Andruzzi that year and had a gaping hole to fill in their offensive line. It's not like Mankins was a complete no-name. He was among the top OL in the Draft.

Alex Mack can play center or guard in the nfl from day one-and continue to replace Koppen or Neal. He would be value at 23-a little higher than the experts rate him.

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of taking Mack at No. 23 if the Pats do indeed grade him out as late round 1 talent.

 

[sg14]

Put me in the up-grade at center camp, a center that can handle all these monster Nose Guards. At times Koppen got abused.

The new guy could back-up Neal if/as required if he does not cut the mustard at center.

Don't know what round, but someone with more power.

((OT's can be "helped", G-C-G not so much.))


(I wonder if Pettigrew slid to low round 2 if the Pats would take him just for blocking purposes)

 

[VJCPatriot]

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of taking Mack at No. 23 if the Pats do indeed grade him out as late round 1 talent.

Dude there are about 3 other C/G that carry the same grade as Mack. You can wait till round 2 and get one of those easily. And when you can get a guy like Jamon Meridith in the 3rd round, why would you need to spend a 1st round pick on an OT or an OG for that matter. This draft has a lot of depth at OL. Go for the priority positions in the 1st round, not tertiary needs that might need restocking in 2010.

The primary needs now are OLB and Safety. And the Pats might want to draft some backup players for other positions as secondary needs with an eye for the future.

 

[Seneschal2]

I see the Pats addressing the offensive line twice in this draft. If true, it would make the 6th time he's (BB) doubled up at OL in 10 drafts.

Day two is always a no-brainer; perfect area to draft the developmental prospects, and as usual -- there are some to consider. Day one in this draft however, has some tremendous talent -- especially with OC/OG prospects. We've talked about the Neal insurance, and we've mentioned the contractual scenarios for some of our starters. IMO, selecting one of these OC/OG prospects (at this time), defines what a VALUE PICK is suppose to be. We know their names, and round projections, so the key is not to lose out on one of these potential starters. Oh, it's important to note, that two or three of these interior linemen are not developmental, they can be plugged in as rookies -- they're that good. I'm guessing round two the latest, with one of them as a serious target.

Regarding the OT position in round one (Beatty, etc.). I have no preference. If we do -- he's a highly valued pick -- it's that simple. If not -- so be it. My reasoning has more to do with the #23 candidates having me completely stumped, moreso than the OT position itself, as my preferences and value picks seem to be in the late first-early second area of this draft. Trading down is still my hope...

 

[dryheat44]

G-C-G not so much.))


(I wonder if Pettigrew slid to low round 2 if the Pats would take him just for blocking purposes)

(no. there are better blocking TEs than Pettigrew that can be had 6th-UDFA. Richard Quinn, Anthony Hill, and Dan Gronkowski, to name three)

 

[dryheat44]

Dude there are about 3 other C/G that carry the same grade as Mack. You can wait till round 2 and get one of those easily. And when you can get a guy like Jamon Meridith in the 3rd round, why would you need to spend a 1st round pick on an OT or an OG for that matter. This draft has a lot of depth at OL. Go for the priority positions in the 1st round, not tertiary needs that might need restocking in 2010.

The draft may be deep in OT, but they're going to go quickly. There's not going to be any highly graded OTs after pick 75 or so. It's a trend that's been happening for a couple of years now.