The NFL's Final Four (Indy,NE,Dallas,GB) - A certainty?

[Oswlek]

I'm saying that the run the Colts had versus

Balt
NE
Chi

is SIMILAR to the run NE had in '04.

Pitt
Colts
Philly

We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. As I said before, neither Baltimore or Chicago would have stayed within 14 points of either Pitt or Philly. Indy's run defense was a big achiles heel that season, but if I had to put my life on it I would say that they were better than Baltimore or Chicago as well.

 

[italian pat patriot]

I hear you - they are certainly the four best teams, but rarely does it ever work out that way.

this is my exact feeling.

PIT could be a dangerous team in the AFC for example.

 

[desi-patsfan]

this is my exact feeling.

PIT could be a dangerous team in the AFC for example.

I dont know why but i really think the Browns can/will beat PIT in the playoffs. The Browns then have no chance of beating the Pats or the Colts.

 

[makewayhomer]

I know that the Patriots in 2004 had the most difficult stretch of playoff games ever (in terms of opponent winning percentage):

Indy (12-4)
Pitt (15-1)
Philly (13-3)

I just did a quick scan of the history of the playoffs (http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/results/championships) and going off memory (and it's not very good or very long) I can't see a year that would beat the potential of this season.

Pittsburgh, the very next year had a harder path in part they had to win 1 extra game, and not counting the WC game their opponents had the same record as the 2004 Pats

Cinci (11-5)

Indy (14-2)
Denver (13-3)
Seattle (13-3)

so, the "winning %" is lower, but winning those 4 games was harder than the 3 the Pats had to win. it was about equal if you throw away the WC game

 

[MrTibbs]

http://www.rushvillerepublican.com/statenews/cnhinsall_story_345170701.html

I am not so convinced this will be the exact 4 teams playing for the AFCCG/NFCCG - Especially in that NFC which any team can get hot at any time,And from what I have seen lately from the incredibly talented Adrian Peterson led Minnesota who is playing as well as any team in that conference right now.

Agree/Disagree? - and if you disagree,What team in these final four are you convinced is in the most danger?

I say Green Bay is in the most danger - Favre is due for that horrendous game which he has not really had this year and for a 38 year old QB running the offense,nothing is certain.

I'd say the Cowboys will get ousted. I swear so many of their games comes down to the opposing team shooting themselves in the foot. I think their luck runs out in the playoffs. I can mention too many teams that should have beat them.

In the AFC the Browns scare me the most and the Jags with their effecient ball control offense might take someone out. The Jags don't turn it over much when Garrard is at QB. They also run the ball well and control the clock. The Browns can just explode at any time on offense and the defense can do just enough to keep it close.

 

[Xzibit23]

Dont sleep on my Vikings fellas...hottest team in the NFC right now

 

[A.C Vegas]

I think Indy will get upset and not make the final four

 

[He Ban Me]

We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. As I said before, neither Baltimore or Chicago would have stayed within 14 points of either Pitt or Philly. Indy's run defense was a big achiles heel that season, but if I had to put my life on it I would say that they were better than Baltimore or Chicago as well.

Well, if you SAY so. LOL. WTF?? How can you possibly say that?? Both of those defenses were VERY good. Who's to say Philly or Pitt SCORE more than 14??

The kicker is, at 12-4, it wasn't good enough for a bye, so throw in an extra PO game for the Colts. Trumps your '04

 

[TIMEsteelersfan]

A certainty??? No such thing in the NFL.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think the Seahawks could make some noise in the playoffs.

 

[Oswlek]

Well, if you SAY so. LOL. WTF?? How can you possibly say that?? Both of those defenses were VERY good. Who's to say Philly or Pitt SCORE more than 14??

The kicker is, at 12-4, it wasn't good enough for a bye, so throw in an extra PO game for the Colts. Trumps your '04

Anyone with half a brain and no bias can see that the Pitt team of 2004 and especially Philly were better than the two teams that I referenced. Frankly, the 2004 Philly team was the best team in the league since 2004 (except the Pats in the same year, of course) until this year's Indy and NE teams.

I will grant you that not having the bye is a legitimate reason to put Indy's run over NE's.

 

[He Ban Me]

Anyone with half a brain and no bias can see that the Pitt team of 2004 and especially Philly were better than the two teams that I referenced. Frankly, the 2004 Philly team was the best team in the league since 2004 (except the Pats in the same year, of course) until this year's Indy and NE teams.

I will grant you that not having the bye is a legitimate reason to put Indy's run over NE's.

because you are a Pats fan on a Pats forum, you will no doubt not be repremanded for this. Otherwise, it IS against policy to "insult" other members.

 

[italian pat patriot]

I dont know why but i really think the Browns can/will beat PIT in the playoffs.

mmm...Desi: i do not know if CLE, in a play-off game, feeling an heavy
pressure, could beat PIT but as we know never say never in the Nfl...

CLE-BUF looks allready this week a big challenge

 

[makewayhomer]

Anyone with half a brain and no bias can see that the Pitt team of 2004 and especially Philly were better than the two teams that I referenced. Frankly, the 2004 Philly team was the best team in the league since 2004 (except the Pats in the same year, of course) until this year's Indy and NE teams.

I will grant you that not having the bye is a legitimate reason to put Indy's run over NE's.

per DVOA

Baltimore 2006: 32%
NE 2006: 23%
Chicago 2006: 24%

total of: 79%

Indy 2004: 34%
Pitt 2004: 35%
Philly 2004: 23%

total of: 92%

and

Indy 2005: 34%
Denver 2005: 31%
Seattle 2005: 26%
+ Cinci 2005: 19%

total of: 91% + 19% for cinci

add them up, and the Pats 2004 path was the hardest IF you only consider the divisional playoff, conference championship, and SB. add in the WC game, and Pitt 2005 path becomes the hardest

also, I think you overrate Philly 2004, that was not the best team of the "McNabb era". they were maybe the 4th best team in the league that year

 

[Oswlek]

because you are a Pats fan on a Pats forum, you will no doubt not be repremanded for this. Otherwise, it IS against policy to "insult" other members.

Considering I was countering your classy response of

Well, if you SAY so. LOL. WTF??

I don't think you are in position to pass judgement.

Baltimore 2006: 32%
NE 2006: 23%
Chicago 2006: 24%

total of: 79%

Indy 2004: 34%
Pitt 2004: 35%
Philly 2004: 23%

total of: 92%

This goes part of the way to telling the story, but what it neglects is that every single one of those teams took the final week completely off resting at least 10 starters with Philly resting 15+ for the final two weeks.

Philly's DVOA was around 40% prior to those two games and Indy's was near there as well. Since Pitt's backups beat Buffalo soundly, I don't recall there being a drop from that game.

And yet there is still a sizable difference.