The Lee Smith conundrum

[DaBruinz]

After looking at the 53 man roster from 2010 and 2009, there were only 3 ST-only positions anyway. (Obviously not counting K, P, and LS)

2010: Slater, White, Murell

2009: Slater, Aiken, Alexander

-------------------

So, in 2010 Arrington replaced Aiken as the other gunner, and White replaced Alexander as the 'ghost' ILB. Belichick went with 3 both years, yet it looks like he went to a bigger group in 2010 than in 2009. Do you think that the wedge rule change that went into effect in 2010 had any impact on this decision?

It's also interesting to note that along with the kickoff change to the 35 (going back to the 1994 rules), absolutely no players are allowed to line up more than 5 yards behind the kickoff, so that they cannot get a running start ahead of time. The NFL feels this will eliminate some of the bigger collisions to some extent. So, do we now go back to a 'regular' size ST-only group, like in 2009 and past years? I think so, b/c we will need speedier guys who are more 'mid-size' but can hit--something like a safety-sized guy in my opinion.

So, it's quite possible that depending on the re-signing (or not) of Tracy White once free agency starts, that we could be going to :

--Slater (wondering if he doesn't stick now, especially considering the changing of one of our gunners to Arrington the year before. I think it may be a little higher than my original 50/50 thought now)

--White or Murrell (or someone of that position and stature if neither of them, as noted White is a FA--so he may not even be here)

--and now a regular starter, or at least someone who plays spot duty/role player, such as Jarrad Page/Brandon McGowan etc. (In other words, someone who actually plays..)

---------------

I have now said many times that I think that one of the ST-only players will be cut down in exchange for one of the younger/faster recent draftees who can actually help by not 'wasting' a roster spot...after looking at the ST-only players from the past 2 years, and considering the rule change w/ kickoffs and not being able to line up more than 5 yds behind the kickoff, I wonder if this isn't adding to this theory now even more?

Murrell wasn't even on the team for most of 2010.

Dane Fletcher made the team because of his STs play. And he was, primarily, a STs player until about mid-season.

Kyle Arrington was on the team for the last 8 games of the 2009 season and used exclusively on STs. He replaced Brett Lockett who was also used, exclusively, on special teams.

Sergio Brown made this team because of his special teams play. He was only used in game situations due to injuries ahead of him.

So, in 2009, the Pats actually had 4 guys who were special teams only.

 

[Ring 6]

Also of major note (and somewhat surprise), I noticed that the team only kept a total of 7 LB in the year 2009.

Just for comparison, they kept a total of 10 in the 2010 season.

BOTH yrs saw 4 OLB's, but in 2009 there were only 3 ILB's (Mayo, Guyton, Alexander), as opposed to last yrs' 6 ILB's (Mayo, Guyton, Fletcher, T.White, Spikes, and McKensie).

Just something to think about for those who are questioning the addition of a player or two (TE, QB), and also for those who are predicting 10 LB again. It is more than obvious that Belichick will mix and match until his heart is content, and he is able to keep everyone who can contribute. ILB could be another position that gets trimmed to 5 (Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Fletcher, and possibly White, depending on his FA status), for a total of 9 LB, instead of last yr's 10.

--------

Since this all indirectly (or directly, depending on how you view it) ties in to the thread about the "Lee Smith/Alge Crumpler conundrum," I see it very possible that both can be kept, because room can be made in a lot of places.

McKenzie was cut. White really isnt an ILB.

 

[supafly]

McKenzie was cut. White really isnt an ILB.

I'm well aware about McKenzie being cut, and White 'really' not being an ILB and a ST-only player, however that is where he was listed.

They had a total of 6 ILB's on Sept.4 last year, after the roster cuts.

2010 Patriots 53-man roster following roster cuts | masslive.com

 

[supafly]

Murrell wasn't even on the team for most of 2010.

Dane Fletcher made the team because of his STs play. And he was, primarily, a STs player until about mid-season.

Kyle Arrington was on the team for the last 8 games of the 2009 season and used exclusively on STs. He replaced Brett Lockett who was also used, exclusively, on special teams.

Sergio Brown made this team because of his special teams play. He was only used in game situations due to injuries ahead of him.

So, in 2009, the Pats actually had 4 guys who were special teams only.

I'm counting opening day rosters, so that is where I got 3 and you got 4.

2010 Patriots 53-man roster following roster cuts | masslive.com

Snapshot of Patriots' Initial 53-Man Roster - New England Patriots - NESN.com

 

[TheSolderKing]

YouTube - ‪New England Patriots 2011 Draft Class‬‏



draft video... go to Lee Smiths part. So phucking BIG and he looks good catching short passes. 6'6 vs crumps 6'2


Imagine Smith and Gronk on field at same time

 

[BlueThunder]

Smith has to EARN it ......Crump already has..


Wait until he actually DOES something :rocker:

 

[mgteich]

I count 4 ST-only players to start each year. As you say, this excludes three positions: K, P, and LS. I would note that PR and KR are also excluded.

2010: White, Fletcher, Slater and Brown
Murrell came in later when Fletcher was getting reps as an OLB.
Brown did get some reps late in the seasons after a lot of injuries.

2009: White, Alexander, Slater, and Aiken
Arrington replaced Lockett as a STer.
Aiken became the #3 receiver at times during the season.

All of four players listed each year made the team as special teamers. These positions were so important that replacement special-teams only players were signed mid-season in each year when one of the four went down.

We were down to three ST-only players each year when one of the players stepped in as an emergency backup (Aiken and Brown). Still, there were always 3 ST-only players on the roster.

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has always had 3-4 ST only players. I see no reason to see a change now. I would be surprised if Slater were beaten out for ALL the ST-only positions.

I would also note that the last four or so positions can be players from almost any position. However, I don't think tha Belichick considers players like Slater and White to be among the bottom four. These ST positions are very important to him.

49 MAN ROSTER
(the STers can be from any position. The last 4 can be from any position).

OFFENSE (22)
QB 2
RB 4
WR 5
TE 2
OL 9

DEFENSE (22)
DL 6
LB 8
DB 8

SPECIAL TEAMS (5)
K 1
P 1
LS 1
ST 2
==========

After looking at the 53 man roster from 2010 and 2009, there were only 3 ST-only positions anyway. (Obviously not counting K, P, and LS)

2010: Slater, White, Murell

2009: Slater, Aiken, Alexander

-------------------
.

 

[supafly]

I count 4 ST-only players to start each year. As you say, this excludes three positions: K, P, and LS. I would note that PR and KR are also excluded.

2010: White, Fletcher, Slater and Brown
Murrell came in later when Fletcher was getting reps as an OLB.
Brown did get some reps late in the seasons after a lot of injuries.

2009: White, Alexander, Slater, and Aiken
Arrington replaced Lockett as a STer.
Aiken became the #3 receiver at times during the season.

All of four players listed each year made the team as special teamers. These positions were so important that replacement special-teams only players were signed mid-season in each year when one of the four went down.

We were down to three ST-only players each year when one of the players stepped in as an emergency backup (Aiken and Brown). Still, there were always 3 ST-only players on the roster.

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has always had 3-4 ST only players. I see no reason to see a change now. I would be surprised if Slater were beaten out for ALL the ST-only positions.

I would also note that the last four or so positions can be players from almost any position. However, I don't think tha Belichick considers players like Slater and White to be among the bottom four. These ST positions are very important to him.

49 MAN ROSTER
(the STers can be from any position. The last 4 can be from any position).

OFFENSE (22)
QB 2
RB 4
WR 5
TE 2
OL 9

DEFENSE (22)
DL 6
LB 8
DB 8

SPECIAL TEAMS (5)
K 1
P 1
LS 1
ST 2
==========

After looking at the 53 man roster from 2010 and 2009, there were only 3 ST-only positions anyway. (Obviously not counting K, P, and LS)

2010: Slater, White, Murell

2009: Slater, Aiken, Alexander

-------------------
.

Nice breakdown and assessment. You are one of the posters whom I enjoy discussing the roster breakdowns with the most.

However, I was going by initial 53 man rosters, after the final cuts..they may have changed in the next few days. Otherwise, Sergio Brown was not on this particular one, he was likely added with the injury of McGowan last year. However, my point is the same. When rosters were cut down to 53 guys, we only had 3 ST-only players.

Both years---

In 2010 : Sergio Brown was not on the original, or 'initial' 53 man after cuts. Due to the McGowan injury, he was likely added.

In 2009 : Tracy White was not on the original, or 'initial' 53 man after cuts. Due to the Tyrone McKenzie situation, White may have been added.



Snapshot of Patriots' Initial 53-Man Roster - New England Patriots - NESN.com

2009


2010 Patriots 53-man roster following roster cuts | masslive.com

2010


The bottom line is that Belichick has only chosen to keep 3 ST-only players when making his final cuts. Due to depth players, and guys who would be normally expected to certainly contribute on some level (McGowan in 2010, McKenzie in 2009) Belichick was THEN forced to re-place those guys with lesser-known depth players who...had only been known for ST's at the time.

He only chose 3 both of the past couple of years.

 

[TheSolderKing]

Smith has to EARN it ......Crump already has..


Wait until he actually DOES something :rocker:

Crump hasn't earned ****. 1 year left on his contract... when smith is able to do ALL crump can do this year (it is a no brainer who to keep)


YOUTH>1 N Done

 

[Sciz]

Crump hasn't earned ****. 1 year left on his contract... when smith is able to do ALL crump can do this year (it is a no brainer who to keep)


YOUTH>1 N Done

It's thoughtless statements like this that make you the laughingstock of the forum. Crumpler is arguably the best blocking TE in the NFL. Smith is a 5th round draft pick. Crumpler has been in the NFL for 10 seasons. Smith has never worn an NFL jersey that actually had his name on the back. The post that I just quoted of you is absolutely ridiculous and completely wrong.

 

[spacecrime]

It's thoughtless statements like this that make you the laughingstock of the forum. Crumpler is arguably the best blocking TE in the NFL. Smith is a 5th round draft pick. Crumpler has been in the NFL for 10 seasons. Smith has never worn an NFL jersey that actually had his name on the back. The post that I just quoted of you is absolutely ridiculous and completely wrong.

It's weird. I agree with your assessment, but agree with a modified version of solderking's bottom line (Lee has as good a chance at sticking as Crumpler). If solderking had phrased it differently, as in, "Few players are guaranteed roster spots based on past performance. Aging players in particular need to prove they still have it, and can only prove it by fending off a younger player. Lee probably will never be the player that Crumpler was, but eventually as Crumpler gets older and Lee gets better (asuming he has what he showed in college), at some point Lee will be a better player than Crumpler. If that is this year, then Crump is gone, but if not this year, then certainly next year," then I'd be onboard with him.

 

[mgteich]

I'm fine with 2-6 special teams only players. We keep having this discussion because so many posters would like to cut them all. Every year, posters want us to stop "wasting" roster positions on special teams only positions.

For me, the realistic minimum is two special teams only players. Somehow, one of these two is almost a player listed as a linebacker, the 9th linebacker who never gets on the field as a linebacker. For now, I expect these positions to go to Slater and either Murrell or White. Of course, either or both of these players can be beaten out for their roster position.

And, no I don't expect 4 this year. I listed 49 positions. I think that we all expect a 3rd QB and a 3rd TE. A 7th DL and a 9th DB seem likely. A 4th TE is possible, but that would mean finding a spot elsewhere, perhaps from a player who starts on the PUP list. Or there may be rookie roster exemptions for part or all of the year) perfect for Smith).

Nice breakdown and assessment. You are one of the posters whom I enjoy discussing the roster breakdowns with the most.

However, I was going by initial 53 man rosters, after the final cuts..they may have changed in the next few days. Otherwise, Sergio Brown was not on this particular one, he was likely added with the injury of McGowan last year. However, my point is the same. When rosters were cut down to 53 guys, we only had 3 ST-only players.

Both years---

In 2010 : Sergio Brown was not on the original, or 'initial' 53 man after cuts. Due to the McGowan injury, he was likely added.

In 2009 : Tracy White was not on the original, or 'initial' 53 man after cuts. Due to the Tyrone McKenzie situation, White may have been added.



Snapshot of Patriots' Initial 53-Man Roster - New England Patriots - NESN.com

2009


2010 Patriots 53-man roster following roster cuts | masslive.com

2010


The bottom line is that Belichick has only chosen to keep 3 ST-only players when making his final cuts. Due to depth players, and guys who would be normally expected to certainly contribute on some level (McGowan in 2010, McKenzie in 2009) Belichick was THEN forced to re-place those guys with lesser-known depth players who...had only been known for ST's at the time.

He only chose 3 both of the past couple of years.

 

[supafly]

I'm fine with 2-6 special teams only players. We keep having this discussion because so many posters would like to cut them all. Every year, posters want us to stop "wasting" roster positions on special teams only positions.

For me, the realistic minimum is two special teams only players. Somehow, one of these two is almost a player listed as a linebacker, the 9th linebacker who never gets on the field as a linebacker. For now, I expect these positions to go to Slater and either Murrell or White. Of course, either or both of these players can be beaten out for their roster position.

And, no I don't expect 4 this year. I listed 49 positions. I think that we all expect a 3rd QB and a 3rd TE. A 7th DL and a 9th DB seem likely. A 4th TE is possible, but that would mean finding a spot elsewhere, perhaps from a player who starts on the PUP list. Or there may be rookie roster exemptions for part or all of the year) perfect for Smith).

Yes, I agree entirely that the team needs to keep at least 2 ST-only players. I also agree with the thinking that Slater should certainly be one of them, especially when you consider that we pretty much just changed the other gunner last yr (approx.) from Aiken to Arrington. I don't see a changing at both in such a short period of time, + Slater obviously offers a lot for his specialty.

I agree that there will also be a LB, whether we keep White as a FA or not remains to be seen. I imagine that the team will try hard to do that. If that's the case then he should have no problem beating out Murrell or recent draft pick Carter.

I still think there's a decent chance that there could be ONE less ST-only player on this year's roster--but of course only time will tell.

Looking forward to some of the future roster discussions. As of now, I tend to agree with all of your numbers at the above listed positions.

7 DL
9 DB
3 QB
Either 4 TE--OR--5 RB (one or the other)

-----

I would have to guess that OL would be a place to look for a lessened position spot, the possibility of ST-only being lessened by a player (depending upon BB's thinking of rule change implications, and the supposed 'quicker and smaller' guys that tended to change after the 2009 season. I expect Dowling to be a possible ST addition and sub package contributor, so that may take a spot away from a ST-only player--who knows??)

The impending FA status' of both Page and McGowan will also come into play, as I'd have to guess that we'll go harder after Page and probably let McGowan walk.

 

[mgteich]

Page is an RFA and is ours unless oemone wants to give us a 2nd.

Yes, I agree entirely that the team needs to keep at least 2 ST-only players. I also agree with the thinking that Slater should certainly be one of them, especially when you consider that we pretty much just changed the other gunner last yr (approx.) from Aiken to Arrington. I don't see a changing at both in such a short period of time, + Slater obviously offers a lot for his specialty.

I agree that there will also be a LB, whether we keep White as a FA or not remains to be seen. I imagine that the team will try hard to do that. If that's the case then he should have no problem beating out Murrell or recent draft pick Carter.

I still think there's a decent chance that there could be ONE less ST-only player on this year's roster--but of course only time will tell.

Looking forward to some of the future roster discussions. As of now, I tend to agree with all of your numbers at the above listed positions.

7 DL
9 DB
3 QB
Either 4 TE--OR--5 RB (one or the other)

-----

I would have to guess that OL would be a place to look for a lessened position spot, the possibility of ST-only being lessened by a player (depending upon BB's thinking of rule change implications, and the supposed 'quicker and smaller' guys that tended to change after the 2009 season. I expect Dowling to be a possible ST addition and sub package contributor, so that may take a spot away from a ST-only player--who knows??)

The impending FA status' of both Page and McGowan will also come into play, as I'd have to guess that we'll go harder after Page and probably let McGowan walk.

 

[Joker]

Every day I log on and read....since January when we lost..and every day there's new threads and/or posts about the roster...who will stay, what we need where, who should make a jump from their rookie year...I gotta admit, it's very interesting reading all the different viewpoints and for the most part it's easy to see that people put a lot of time reading up and dissecting various stats, contract issues and other ancillary concerns.

I don't normally post any opinions because, quite frankly, even though I've been a Pats fan for decades,I wouldn't know where to begin constructing an NFL roster.I do, however,have one desire that I personally would LOVE to see upgraded/addressed/paid attention to...and that is the outside edge rush.The one thing that infuriated me to no end at the Razor in the playoff game, out of a good number of maddening occurences, was the lack of pressure and hits on that little gloryboy punk, Sanchez. What I want is for the Patriots to acquire/develop a player that will HIT this little jerk hard in the pocket in under four seconds. I want him to drop, plant and "OOOOFFFF!", get planted, forearm to chest...and if the forearm moves up into his face guard as a result of momentum, that's fine by me. I want that punk to know he's going to get hit HARD when he looks to pass. I want him to FEAR the edge the entire game.

Make no mistake about it, for us to have success in the postseason, we're probably going to have to go through these green turds. I saw a little confused,frontrunning gloryboy chest thumper running to the sidelines and Daddy Rex on that 4th and one at the goal line in Pitt. THAT is what I want to see out of this little creep when he plays in OUR stadium.NEVER comfortable...always nervous...and you do that first, by hitting the bejeezus out of him early and often.Who is THAT player on our roster as it stands right now?

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Crump hasn't earned ****. 1 year left on his contract... when smith is able to do ALL crump can do this year (it is a no brainer who to keep)


YOUTH>1 N Done

That worked well for the Jets...McKnight over Woody...
Worked well for us.

 

[supafly]

Page is an RFA and is ours unless oemone wants to give us a 2nd.

No, not anymore MG, not with the expected free agency going back to 4 years again. You are quite wrong about this one.

You are right though , he would HAVE been an RFA, and we all assumed that he'd be here, but that is not the case any longer as there have been discussions about Page ever since the leaking of the 'back to 4 yrs info' that we have heard as of a couple/few weeks ago. Right after the news came out about that part of the negotiations being agreed to already, they talked about it on Reiss' mailbag etc. You may be able to find it if you go back 3-4 weeks.

I remember distinctly, as Page is just about the only other player on the team (at least for a name that you'd remember) that would be affected on the Pats with the rules going back to 4 years.

Here is a direct quote :

"Under the 2010 rules, Jarrad Page is considered a restricted free agent."

-------------------------

Here, you go--I found it for you. KFFL forums from the end of June.

"Page is the only Patriot player that this relates to. The Jests, OTOH, have a bunch of guys that this would impact: Cromartie, Brad Smith, Holmes, and like 5 or 6 other guys.

Read more: http://forums.kffl.com/threads/286841-4-year-vet-UFA-with-new-CBA?#ixzz1RmRxHlN1

 

[supafly]

I do, however,have one desire that I personally would LOVE to see upgraded/addressed/paid attention to...and that is the outside edge rush.The one thing that infuriated me to no end at the Razor in the playoff game, out of a good number of maddening occurences, was the lack of pressure and hits on that little gloryboy punk, Sanchez. What I want is for the Patriots to acquire/develop a player that will HIT this little jerk hard in the pocket in under four seconds. I want him to drop, plant and "OOOOFFFF!", get planted, forearm to chest...and if the forearm moves up into his face guard as a result of momentum, that's fine by me. I want that punk to know he's going to get hit HARD when he looks to pass. I want him to FEAR the edge the entire game.

Make no mistake about it, for us to have success in the postseason, we're probably going to have to go through these green turds. I saw a little confused,frontrunning gloryboy chest thumper running to the sidelines and Daddy Rex on that 4th and one at the goal line in Pitt. THAT is what I want to see out of this little creep when he plays in OUR stadium.NEVER comfortable...always nervous...and you do that first, by hitting the bejeezus out of him early and often.Who is THAT player on our roster as it stands right now?

I believe that 'player' isn't known yet, Joker.

I think (at least it's my opinion) that Belichick feels pretty strongly about meshing the back line, the middle line, and the front line into ONE working and cohesive unit, as a whole.

He went right out again and immediately looked past all of the 'expert' picks at DE/OLB, and went right to one of the highest rated CB's. I really believe that he is confident that better coverage is highly important in this league, and that will surely lead to more pressure.

Exactly WHO that will come from remains to be seen, but with the 'Patriot way' sunk into their heads all year ("Do...your...job"), I believe that Bill Belichick does not care about 'WHO' it will be. I truly think that we have seen an incredibly predictable pattern from him that puts great emphasis on the back line holding their own/doing their jobs to help give that extra second to the front 7 pressure.

I don't even think we need to concern ourselves with a name of 'who' it will be. It could be Cunningham, it could be Ninkovich, maybe middle collapse pressure from Wright, Pryor, Warren, Wilfork. It could be mixed blitzes with Chung creeping closer to the line, or Arrington..It could be a free agent that we have not received as of yet.

One thing is for certain though, I truly feel that our coach looks at it as a 'big picture' situation, and all of the pieces of the puzzle working together cohesively. The improvement of the back/front lines, will almost certainly improve the middle line, and I think you will be happily surprised, as we go back to our added pressure results from recent yrs past

 

[supafly]

Page is an RFA and is ours unless oemone wants to give us a 2nd.

Along with Jarrad Page from New England, these are some other well known names that would have been RFA's under the 2010 rules, but will now be UFA's again since we are going back to the normal 4 year rule.

Some big names of players that would have been RFAs that will be UFAs:

DeAngelo Williams
Charles Johnson
James Jones
Sidney Rice
Malcom Floyd
Mathias Kiwanuka

Read more: 4 year vet = UFA with new CBA

 

[DaBruinz]

Nice breakdown and assessment. You are one of the posters whom I enjoy discussing the roster breakdowns with the most.

However, I was going by initial 53 man rosters, after the final cuts..they may have changed in the next few days. Otherwise, Sergio Brown was not on this particular one, he was likely added with the injury of McGowan last year. However, my point is the same. When rosters were cut down to 53 guys, we only had 3 ST-only players.

Both years---

In 2010 : Sergio Brown was not on the original, or 'initial' 53 man after cuts. Due to the McGowan injury, he was likely added.

In 2009 : Tracy White was not on the original, or 'initial' 53 man after cuts. Due to the Tyrone McKenzie situation, White may have been added.



Snapshot of Patriots' Initial 53-Man Roster - New England Patriots - NESN.com

2009


2010 Patriots 53-man roster following roster cuts | masslive.com

2010


The bottom line is that Belichick has only chosen to keep 3 ST-only players when making his final cuts. Due to depth players, and guys who would be normally expected to certainly contribute on some level (McGowan in 2010, McKenzie in 2009) Belichick was THEN forced to re-place those guys with lesser-known depth players who...had only been known for ST's at the time.

He only chose 3 both of the past couple of years.

Tracy White was added via trade during TC of the 2010 season. He wasn't a part of the Pats for the 2009 season.

McKenzie was injured in 2009. That was the year he tore his ACL during rookie drills. He wasn't a part of the initial 53 since he was already on IR.

2009 - Aiken, Lockett, Slater, Alexander

2010 - Slater, White, Arrington, Fletcher

By my count, it's 4 both years..

Also, using the "initial" 53 from NESN isn't a good idea since that is published after the "final" cuts of training camp. Using the Week 1 roster is a better idea.

2009
http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/54481/NE_Gamebook.pdf

2010
http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/54868/NE_Gamebook.pdf

I tried finding these on the Pats website and couldn't. The changes to the "Games & Stats" section have made it a lot less user friendly.