The defense is progressing just fine!

[pats1]

So, we both agree that we need a 3-4 DE, an OLB and a veteran corner. This is NOT a large shopping list going into the offseason, especially since one of the options is already on the team and could be re-signed (Bodden).

I agree with OLB and CB/Bodden. I'm not sold on the Pats necessarily bringing in a full-time 3-4 DE in FA. If they wanted to do that they would keep Green. I think the final eight plan will keep them from bringing in anyone else at that position in FA. So I can definitely see them picking up a DE in Day 1 of the Draft. However, they did that with Brace last year.

If Brace had developed as planned, then he would be the ideal candidate to step in at RDE. Wilfork will be franchised, and Wright will back up both positions, and Pryor will backup NT. However, I think given Brace's slow progression, Wright and Brace's roles may be flip-flopped.

The Pats could still bring in another man through the draft. That way, Wright could start at DE for now, let that draft pick develop at backup DE. Then Brace would be able to develop at backup NT/DE (hopefully), and if/when Wilfork walks in 2011 you have a replacement.

Bottom line is, Burgess doesn't factor in anywhere here, which is what your original post implied.

The discussion Burgess does factor in is the OLB discussion. Personally, I think the Pats dump Thomas and let Burgess and maybe even Woods walk. That leaves them with Banta-Cain, Crable, and Ninkovich at OLB; the latter two would be 4th options/STers. That leaves, in fact, TWO holes to fill at OLB (if Banta-Cain is your Willie, then you still need a Rosie and a Vrabel). That's where the draft comes in, hopefully, or an outside FA like Chike Okeafor, using the chip you get from losing Burgess.

 

[pats1]

"Clearly" nothing...

Green is gone, contract wise, leaving Warren and Wright. Wright is more of a DT/NT than a 3-4 DE. That's the need for one due to contract and another due to the failure to adequately replace Seymour to this point. There's nothing pessimistic about that.

Springs will be a year older and, at his age, it's a sensible thing to assume that there will be some dropoff, given that he'll be a 35 year old cornerback. If you don't think the Patriots have done so, at least as something to ponder when determining needed targets in the upcoming offseason, you must think they are idiots.

Wheatley has fallen to the back of the CB pack. Expecting him to make the leap is nice and all, but it's not a sensible approach to take given his apparent inability to stay in front of rookies or to unseat his fellow second year CB. This isn't pessimism, it's common sense. I grant you that seems to be in short supply around here this year.

I do, however, expect common sense to return to the team and, to a lesser extent, to this board, once this season is over. Hell, I'm still hopeful that they'll win the Super Bowl despite the year of living foolishly.

You can't leave Brace out of that discussion, though. Sometimes you have to take a leap of faith, start an unproven player and hope he floats.

Don't forget about Pryor, either. He's been impressive as a backup NT. I wouldn't want him replacing Wilfork in 2010, or even 2011, but he's a nice option to have.

 

[mgteich]

I indicated three needs, but am open to how we secure the players, other than believing that the corner needs to be a veteran.

I am fine with drafting both the DE and the OLB.

I have just one nitpick with your post. I never projected Brace as a RDE, no matter how fast he was expected to develop. He would be the slowest RDE int he league. Wilfork is a much better RDE than Brace. To me, Brace was always a one-dimensional NT, and therefore not a very good use of a top draft choice.

I agree with OLB and CB/Bodden. I'm not sold on the Pats necessarily bringing in a full-time 3-4 DE in FA. If they wanted to do that they would keep Green. I think the final eight plan will keep them from bringing in anyone else at that position in FA. So I can definitely see them picking up a DE in Day 1 of the Draft. However, they did that with Brace last year.

If Brace had developed as planned, then he would be the ideal candidate to step in at RDE. Wilfork will be franchised, and Wright will back up both positions, and Pryor will backup NT. However, I think given Brace's slow progression, Wright and Brace's roles may be flip-flopped.

The Pats could still bring in another man through the draft. That way, Wright could start at DE for now, let that draft pick develop at backup DE. Then Brace would be able to develop at backup NT/DE (hopefully), and if/when Wilfork walks in 2011 you have a replacement.

 

[pats1]

I indicated three needs, but am open to how we secure the players, other than believing that the corner needs to be a veteran.

I am fine with drafting both the DE and the OLB.

I have just one nitpick with your post. I never projected Brace as a RDE, no matter how fast he was expected to develop. He would be the slowest RDE int he league. Wilfork is a much better RDE than Brace. To me, Brace was always a one-dimensional NT, and therefore not a very good use of a top draft choice.

I was at a handful of training camp practices this year, and I saw Brace working at both 3-4 DE and even 4-3 DE (which surprised me at the time, I thought he was a pure NT). I agree, he's big for the position, but speed isn't exactly a 3-4 DE trait; Warren doesn't have much, nor did Seymour - you're not looking for a Freeney or Mathis. You're looking for a big body who can two-gap - not all that different from a NT, except less attention from blockers.

The thing is, Pryor is a good 30 lbs. lighter than Brace, but his bodytype is more suited as a NT, which is where we have seen him. Brace, despite being 330 lbs., has a slimer build - not as slim as Seymour, but closer to Warren - and seems to be in play at RDE.

 

[Deus Irae]

You can't leave Brace out of that discussion, though. Sometimes you have to take a leap of faith, start an unproven player and hope he floats.

Don't forget about Pryor, either. He's been impressive as a backup NT. I wouldn't want him replacing Wilfork in 2010, or even 2011, but he's a nice option to have.

But Mg pointed to DE and CB when bashing me for alleged pessimism. I think we can agree that Brace isn't likely to step up and start as a 3-4 DE next season, since he hasn't been getting rotation time there this year. I don't think Mg's response was particularly well thought out, and I know it was an inaccurate portrayal of the reasoning behind my post.

Also, if we were to go to the Wilfork replacement route, I think we can agree that neither Brace nor Pryor are likely the 2010 answer for starting NT, unless the team sees something that nobody else is seeing. All leaps of faith included, you don't screw around with the 3-4 NT spot unless you want to become the 2009 Chiefs defense.

 

[pats1]

But Mg pointed to DE and CB when bashing me for alleged pessimism. I think we can agree that Brace isn't likely to step up and start as a 3-4 DE next season, since he hasn't been getting rotation time there this year. I don't think Mg's response was particularly well thought out, and I know it was an inaccurate portrayal of the reasoning behind my post.

Also, if we were to go to the Wilfork replacement route, I think we can agree that neither Brace nor Pryor are likely the 2010 answer for starting NT, unless the team sees something that nobody else is seeing. All leaps of faith included, you don't screw around with the 3-4 NT spot unless you want to become the 2009 Chiefs defense.

Your options are still limited. The final eight plan is going to handcuff you from signing any significant free agent. You can draft somebody early in the draft, but OLB is a more pressing need - maybe even OG if Neal leaves. So you can draft a DE or NT in the first round or second round, but what does that leave for Brace? If he wasn't already a wasted 2nd round pick, putting another in front of him would doom his fate. And what's the guarantee that said high pick would be any better than Brace, starting at RDE? Thankfully you have Wright as insurance.

In the end, I see BB concentrating more on OLB and hoping the DL situation will shape itself out. Not the first time he's done that. He may just throw Wright, Brace, Pryor, Wilfork, Warren, and Richard into a hat and hope he draws three decent starters. There's a lot of big-bodied talent in that pool.

 

[upstater1]

Pryor might be more of a NT but I saw him fire off quickly with speed quite a few times, and it makes me think he can pressure the QB from the DE position and be stout against the run. Seymour was not more than that, he was not a guy to come blazing around the tackle.

I can easily see Pryor starting at DE.

 

[pats1]

Pryor might be more of a NT but I saw him fire off quickly with speed quite a few times, and it makes me think he can pressure the QB from the DE position and be stout against the run. Seymour was not more than that, he was not a guy to come blazing around the tackle.

I can easily see Pryor starting at DE.

Well, that's not what a 3-4 DE's role is. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but you don't want your 3-4 DE's speed-rushing tackles. Besides, they rarely have a chance to do that; on most passing situations your 3-4 DEs are going to move inside to 4-2 nickel DTs. That's where I think Pryor does have some potential. But in the base 3-4, I think he is better suited as a NT.

 

[RayClay]

I agree with OLB and CB/Bodden. I'm not sold on the Pats necessarily bringing in a full-time 3-4 DE in FA. If they wanted to do that they would keep Green. I think the final eight plan will keep them from bringing in anyone else at that position in FA. So I can definitely see them picking up a DE in Day 1 of the Draft. However, they did that with Brace last year.

If Brace had developed as planned, then he would be the ideal candidate to step in at RDE. Wilfork will be franchised, and Wright will back up both positions, and Pryor will backup NT. However, I think given Brace's slow progression, Wright and Brace's roles may be flip-flopped.

The Pats could still bring in another man through the draft. That way, Wright could start at DE for now, let that draft pick develop at backup DE. Then Brace would be able to develop at backup NT/DE (hopefully), and if/when Wilfork walks in 2011 you have a replacement.

Bottom line is, Burgess doesn't factor in anywhere here, which is what your original post implied.

The discussion Burgess does factor in is the OLB discussion. Personally, I think the Pats dump Thomas and let Burgess and maybe even Woods walk. That leaves them with Banta-Cain, Crable, and Ninkovich at OLB; the latter two would be 4th options/STers. That leaves, in fact, TWO holes to fill at OLB (if Banta-Cain is your Willie, then you still need a Rosie and a Vrabel). That's where the draft comes in, hopefully, or an outside FA like Chike Okeafor, using the chip you get from losing Burgess.

I believe burgess has been working at OLB. Of course he's not a 3-4 lineman, so that's his only chance of being more than a sub package 4-3 DE.

I agreee with Deus that we need two DEs if Green goes. Brace is slow as snit, the slowest in his draft class. Myron is a nice find at 4-3 tackle, but he's not really a fit in our 3-4.

Could be a great penetrator if we use 4-3 more, but he's short for an end. Need at least one end and maybe we use Wilfork and Brace together with Wilfork at end.

 

[Deus Irae]

Your options are still limited. The final eight plan is going to handcuff you from signing any significant free agent. You can draft somebody early in the draft, but OLB is a more pressing need - maybe even OG if Neal leaves. So you can draft a DE or NT in the first round or second round, but what does that leave for Brace? If he wasn't already a wasted 2nd round pick, putting another in front of him would doom his fate. And what's the guarantee that said high pick would be any better than Brace, starting at RDE? Thankfully you have Wright as insurance.

In the end, I see BB concentrating more on OLB and hoping the DL situation will shape itself out. Not the first time he's done that. He may just throw Wright, Brace, Pryor, Wilfork, Warren, and Richard into a hat and hope he draws three decent starters. There's a lot of big-bodied talent in that pool.

I agree that the options are limited. I was merely noting the issues that the team will have to face in response to Mg's post. With Green, Burgess, Wilfork and Bodden seeing the end of their contracts, spaces are open. With Springs aging a year, adjustments may need to be made. Most people don't project Thomas to be in the plans for next year, so that's another spot to fill. With Guyton continuing to be a liability against the run, that's another position of need. Seymour was never replaced since the team just moved Green into his slot and went with a LB replacement (Burgess), so that's another spot to fill.

That's 2 DEs, 1 NT, 2 OLBs, 1 ILB and 1-2 CBS, which is what my original post noted. How they massage it is something I leave to those getting paid to decide. They showed this year that they are willing to undercut themselves, so maybe they'll do it again.

FWIW, I expect Wilfork to be back, either with a shiny new contract or under the franchise tag.

 

[pats1]

I believe burgess has been working at OLB.

Working so much at 3-4 OLB that Thomas, the village malcontent, is back to starting alongside Banta-Cain.

Of course he's not a 3-4 lineman, so that's his only chance of being more than a sub package 4-3 DE.

I agreee with Deus that we need two DEs if Green goes. Brace is slow as snit, the slowest in his draft class. Myron is a nice find at 4-3 tackle, but he's not really a fit in our 3-4.

Could be a great penetrator if we use 4-3 more, but he's short for an end. Need at least one end and maybe we use Wilfork and Brace together with Wilfork at end.

Again, I'm not sure where speed plays a role as a 3-4 DE. Size does.

 

[mayoclinic]

SECONDARY
The secondary is set for a couple of years. We will need to re-sign Bodden or sign another free agent or two, as we do every year. This need should not obscure the fact that we have a solid core of seven signed defensive backs through 2011: Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Meriweather, Sanders, McGowan and Chung.

LINEBACKERS
This group has been doing much better than posters give them credit for. Banta-Cain, Mayo and Guyton are the core. Ninkovich and McKenzie are the young 2010 prospects (and perhaps even Crable). Woods is the stable veteran backup and top special teamer. Thomas may or not be coming back. It seems much more stable for him to stay for a couple of years as the youngsters (drafted and to-be-drafted) develop.

DEFENSIVE LINE
I suspect that we will re-sign Burgess as a veteran backup (especially with Green gone) and retain Wilfork as a franchisee or through an extension. This gives us a mixture of veterans and youngsters: Warren, Wilfork, Wright, Burgess, Brace, and Pryor. We even have Practice Squad quality players Adams and Richard.

BOTTOM LINE
The defense is NOT a mess. There are NOT needs at many positions. The transition is complete. We now need the normal number of additions in this offseason. This year the need is at DE, OLB and at CB. Sure, we might have filled the DE/OLB need in the 2009 draft. However, the 2010 draft seems very strong at this position, as was anticipated. Perhaps it did make sense to wait until 2010 to find the replacements for Seymour and Vrabel. Burgess is already the replacement for Green.

I agree in part with what you say.

1. The defense is NOT a mess, as many called it a few weeks ago. It has always been a work in progress, and it is progressing fine given what we have to work with in 2009. Agree.

2. The nucleus of a strong secondary is largely in place. The safety position is virtuall set, with Meriweather, Chung, Sanders and McGowan the strongest and deepest group we've ever had at the position. The CB situation is a little less settled depending on whether we can extend Bodden, but Springs has begun to show why we brought him in, and Butler/Wilhite/Wheatley is a strong young group to develop. Agree.

3. The DL situation needs to be addressed. The big question is whether Wilfork stays for the long term. If not, the DL is a major issue for 2010 and beyond. Assuming he does, there is a strong core with Wilfork, Warren, Wright, Pryor and Brace. Green is probably gone, and Burgess is NOT a replacement at 3-4 DE by any stretch of the imagination. I don't see us going the FA route, but I do see bringing in at least one more 3-4 DE via the draft. Partially disagree.

4. While I agree that the linebackers have been doing much better than some have suggested, I don't think the position is by any means set. Mayo is the anchor of the group, though he really could benefit from having a true SILB next to him allowing him to play his natural weakside role. Guyton as solid, but he's really a WILB like Mayo. Assuming McKenzie heals from his injury, we should have a good inside nucleus, though we could still use a true SILB. But OLB is far from set. TBC has been a major plus, but he is mostly a situational pass rusher, and there is plenty of need for 3-4 OLBs. Pierre Woods has not stepped up. Ninkovich and possibly Crable may provide long-term depth, but I don't think anyone wants to see them projected as starters at this point. Adalius Thomas is likely gone. Burgess has not been particularly effective adapting to an OLB role. There is a lot of room for improvement at this position. Partially disagree.

5. The transition is NOT complete. The transition is still in transition. I think the defense has done very well given that we don't have all of the pieces in place, and I agree that it is progressing nicely. But we need to address those pieces which are lacking, and looking at things through rose colored glasses doesn't hide the fact that we are lacking major pieces before the transition can be called "complete". There has also been at times a major lack of defensive leadership, which needs to be developed. Strongly disagree.

What I would like to see in order to complete the defensive transition is the following:

1. Solidify the DT position for the long term, preferably by extending Wilfork.
2. Bring in at least one developmental 3-4 DE prospect.
3. Solidify the CB position, preferably by extending Bodden. If Bodden leaves and no FA replacement is signed, then drafting a CB will become a priority.
4. Bring in at least 2 pass rushers at DE/OLB. Possibly one via FA, and one via the draft. Shawn Merriman and Aaron Kampman are attractive options via FA. There are a ton of talented prospects in the draft, if BB is ever willing to take one.
5. Ideally, find a solution to SILB that allows Mayo to play his natural WILB position. This could be done by moving AD to SILB, by signing a FA (Dansby), or via the draft (McClain, Norwood).

That's a lot to do in one offseason, and it's probably unrealistic to expect all of those to be fully accomplished. We've never had total stability, and I don't really expect it. But until we've addressed at least the majority of those issues, I wouldn't call the defensive transition "complete".

 

[RayClay]

Working so much at 3-4 OLB that Thomas, the village malcontent, is back to starting alongside Banta-Cain.



Again, I'm not sure where speed plays a role as a 3-4 DE. Size does.

Warren and Seymour aren't athletic? There's a reason we spent fairly high 1st rounders on our defensive ends. If all we needed was a fat guy, we could have used Terdell

I think Brace needs to concentrate on Nose tackle, that's what will give him a career...

Working so much at 3-4 OLB that Thomas, the village malcontent, is back to starting alongside Banta-Cain.

I said Burgess was working some at OLB. Where did I say "Burgess has been working night and day at OLB to the point he is now better than former All Pro expensive free agent Adalius Thomas"?

 

[pats1]

Warren and Seymour aren't athletic? There's a reason we spent fairly high 1st rounders on our defensive ends. If all we needed was a fat guy, we could have used Terdell

You're confusing "speed" with "athletic." Just because Brace ran a slow 40 doesn't mean he isn't athletic. Again, you're not looking for a Dwight Freeney; you need someone who can occupy a blocker and two-gap.

I think Brace needs to concentrate on Nose tackle, that's what will give him a career...

I agree, but the Pats could sure use him at DE at this point.

I said Burgess was working some at OLB. Where did I say "Burgess has been working night and day at OLB to the point he is now better than former All Pro expensive free agent Adalius Thomas"?

I mis-understood your meaning of "working." I thought you meant it was "working," like the Pats' Brady-to-Moss connection in 2007 was "working." Not "do not disturb me, I am working."

 

[mgteich]

There is a significant difference between a major transition and normal year to year additions.

While I agree with your plan, I do NOT consider this by any means unreralistic for this wish list to be accomplished in one offseason. If one your priorities is not accomplished, it will only be because Belichick disagrees on the importance of one of your five needs.

Of your five defensive needs, I expect 1, 3 and 5 to be resolved before the draft. One option is to franchise Wilfork, extend Bodden and either move Thomas inside or sign a free ILB (or decide that no investment is needed on an ILB.

That would leave us with the draft to focus on a DE and a DE/OLB or two, along with the obviously needed OG. This is not an impossible list at all.

.
5. The transition is NOT complete. The transition is still in transition. I think the defense has done very well given that we don't have all of the pieces in place, and I agree that it is progressing nicely. But we need to address those pieces which are lacking, and looking at things through rose colored glasses doesn't hide the fact that we are lacking major pieces before the transition can be called "complete". There has also been at times a major lack of defensive leadership, which needs to be developed. Strongly disagree.

What I would like to see in order to complete the defensive transition is the following:

1. Solidify the DT position for the long term, preferably by extending Wilfork.
2. Bring in at least one developmental 3-4 DE prospect.
3. Solidify the CB position, preferably by extending Bodden. If Bodden leaves and no FA replacement is signed, then drafting a CB will become a priority.
4. Bring in at least 2 pass rushers at DE/OLB. Possibly one via FA, and one via the draft. Shawn Merriman and Aaron Kampman are attractive options via FA. There are a ton of talented prospects in the draft, if BB is ever willing to take one.
5. Ideally, find a solution to SILB that allows Mayo to play his natural WILB position. This could be done by moving AD to SILB, by signing a FA (Dansby), or via the draft (McClain, Norwood).

That's a lot to do in one offseason, and it's probably unrealistic to expect all of those to be fully accomplished. We've never had total stability, and I don't really expect it. But until we've addressed at least the majority of those issues, I wouldn't call the defensive transition "complete".

 

[RayClay]

You're confusing "speed" with "athletic." Just because Brace ran a slow 40 doesn't mean he isn't athletic. Again, you're not looking for a Dwight Freeney; you need someone who can occupy a blocker and two-gap.



I agree, but the Pats could sure use him at DE at this point.



I mis-understood your meaning of "working." I thought you meant it was "working," like the Pats' Brady-to-Moss connection in 2007 was "working." Not "do not disturb me, I am working."

Yeah, he's working a bit. They have a lot of talent that's a little mismatched at this point, which some work on schemes and individually should help. Pryor is an explosive 4-3 tackle. Not sure where or if he fits in in the 3-4.

Comparing Brace to Freeney is silly. Compare him to Warren, Seymour, Green or even Wilfork who is playing some end because he has superior athleticism to most
nose tackles. He was also a more explosive 4-3 tackle than Brace. I'm sure they hope Brace can show some versatility, i just doubt they are counting on him at end.

 

[goheels22002]

Thomas is gone, Springs might as well follow him. Pats re-sign Bodden, and put Butler, Wilhite, and Wheatley behind him. Keep in mind you still have four quality safeties to take sub package reps away from the CBs; nobody said you need to go 4 or 5 deep with starting-quality CBs. Just ask the 2003 or 2004 Pats - they had 7 starting quality DBs (Law, Poole, Samuel, Wilson, Rodney), and the rest were special teamers (Akins, Cherry, Harris, Mayer, Reid). When one of the starters got injured, they went to FA pickups (Poteat, Moreland), a convert (Troy), or struck gold with a UDFA (Gay).

2011 is an uncapped year unless the owners get their sh*t together and agree on revenue sharing which many teams don't do fairly. That makes all of this speculative. Bob Kraft is not going to spend based on hypotheticals and will go for value and lowest cost until the CBA is signed.

Adalius Thomas is definitely out of here - BB is not going to put up with his douchebaggery for another season. Uncle Junior is also gone leaving the Pats with the need to fill two LB spots via draft or free agency. The transition continues. The Pats must sign Wilfork and Bodden IMO but won't unless both guys take a home town discount. Bodden should do that in gratitude for his first playoff appearance and rescue from Detroit. If they keep both, the biggest issue is LB - a position that is very hard to fill with smart, disciplined guys who can lead.

 

[pats1]

2011 is an uncapped year unless the owners get their sh*t together and agree on revenue sharing which many teams don't do fairly. That makes all of this speculative. Bob Kraft is not going to spend based on hypotheticals and will go for value and lowest cost until the CBA is signed.

Adalius Thomas is definitely out of here - BB is not going to put up with his douchebaggery for another season. Uncle Junior is also gone leaving the Pats with the need to fill two LB spots via draft or free agency. The transition continues. The Pats must sign Wilfork and Bodden IMO but won't unless both guys take a home town discount. Bodden should do that in gratitude for his first playoff appearance and rescue from Detroit. If they keep both, the biggest issue is LB - a position that is very hard to fill with smart, disciplined guys who can lead.

Wilfork will be franchised. Bodden would be franchised too if they could; Bodden has a clause in his contract that they can't. The Pats still have a second tag to use because of the uncapped year.