The 3-Pick Plan: CB, DT, OL?

[mayoclinic]

For me, Goldman simply doesn't fit any of my big 3 needs. He's not an "athletic DT," he's an old-fashioned space-eating NT. That's not a position I'd like to spend a 1st-round pick on.

I'm not sure what your definition is. I wouldn't consider Malcolm Brown to be any more athletic than Goldman. But I'm fine waiting until Hardison.

 

[patchick]

I'm not sure what your defition is. I wouldn't consider Malcolm Brown to be any more athletic than Goldman. But I'm fine waiting until Hardison.

That's fair, I went back and forth on Brown. I see him as just enough of a better athlete, and just enough more scheme flexible, to make the list. But I'd be surprised if he ended up a Patriot.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm not sure what your defition is. I wouldn't consider Malcolm Brown to be any more athletic than Goldman. But I'm fine waiting until Hardison.

I think Brown has the quicker feet whereas Goldman relies on strength. Brown is a penetrator, Goldman is more of a 2-gapper and clogger he's good at it, just not first-round good.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think Brown has the quicker feet whereas Goldman relies on strength. Brown is a penetrator, Goldman is more of a 2-gapper and clogger he's good at it, just not first-round good.

I don't think of Brown as a penetrator at all.

I'm fine leaving both out, or including both. If anything, I think Goldman is more athletic than Brown (though not at 336#!).

 

[manxman2601]

I don't think of Brown as a penetrator at all.

I'm fine leaving both out, or including both. If anything, I think Goldman is more athletic than Brown (though not at 336#!).

I don't see that at all. We disagree on Goldman which is fine.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't see that at all. We disagree on Goldman which is fine.

Again, I don't really want a DT at #32 at this point, so it's pretty much moot as far as I'm concerned.

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments

1. I'm growing a little concerned about what I'd call the "CB panic". It seems almost everyone thinks whatever CB is left at 32, we need to pick him. Really?

2. From what I'm reading this doesn't seem to be a great draft for CB's in the first place, and trying to force a pick at 32 seems to go against previous policy.

3. As someone mentioned, we are already pretty competent and deep at the CB position. We just lack that obvious #1 guy. Its almost like our WR syndrome. We've had one of the best offenses in the league year after year, yet everyone is constantly demanding we add that true #1 WR.

4. Maybe the answer is NOT reach for a CB at 32 when we could get a much better value at OL or DL.

5. Do you guys really think that Johnson or Jones could be a #1 CB on this team. IIRC, Jones was thought to be a 3rd round prospect before the combine

6. What we lack at CB is size, and I don't see that issue being solved in this coming draft.

 

[patchick]

1. I'm growing a little concerned about what I'd call the "CB panic". It seems almost everyone thinks whatever CB is left at 32, we need to pick him. Really?
...
Do you guys really think that Johnson or Jones could be a #1 CB on this team. IIRC, Jones was thought to be a 3rd round prospect before the combine

Ken, I think this is more of a difference in talent evaluation than a "panic." I do consider Jones, Johnson and Peters to be worth considering at #32, and I expect one of them to be available there. If they're all gone, I'd look to other positions rather than reach for a lesser CB.

 

[manxman2601]

Some comments on the comments

1. I'm growing a little concerned about what I'd call the "CB panic". It seems almost everyone thinks whatever CB is left at 32, we need to pick him. Really?

2. From what I'm reading this doesn't seem to be a great draft for CB's in the first place, and trying to force a pick at 32 seems to go against previous policy.

3. As someone mentioned, we are already pretty competent and deep at the CB position. We just lack that obvious #1 guy. Its almost like our WR syndrome. We've had one of the best offenses in the league year after year, yet everyone is constantly demanding we add that true #1 WR.

4. Maybe the answer is NOT reach for a CB at 32 when we could get a much better value at OL or DL.

5. Do you guys really think that Johnson or Jones could be a #1 CB on this team. IIRC, Jones was thought to be a 3rd round prospect before the combine

6. What we lack at CB is size, and I don't see that issue being solved in this coming draft.

I'm not sure who this "CB panic" statement is directed at, but for my part:

1. I didn't evaluate CBs properly before we lost Revis so any grading of CBs by myself as first rounders now is not about panic, but because I'm now properly evaluating them.

2. Byron Jones is my #1 CB. I had him graded as a first rounder before Revis left so I'm confident with that grade.

3. Kevin Johnson and Marcus Peters are the two other CBs I'd take in the first. That's only three. Like Patchick, I wouldn't "reach" for a CB if those three are gone.

4. Daniel Jeremiah graded Byron Jones as a top 50 pick before the combine. Let's not forget, Chandler Jones was graded as a third rounder pre-combine in 2012 (I believe). His rise up the boards was a quick and late one.

5. Still don't believe there's better value at DT. In fact, I think the value at DT in the first is not good.

 

[VrabelJr]

I'd go full-on Marcus if I could.

1st - Marcus Peters
2nd - Marcus Hardison
3rd - Marcus... errrr. Damn. We're all out of Marcuses. Arie Kouandjio I guess?

If Cameron Erving were actually going to be available at 32 I'd change this around quite a bit, but only because he's the type of player I think has "Bill Belichick" written all over him.

 

[manxman2601]

I'd go full-on Marcus if I could.

1st - Marcus Peters
2nd - Marcus Hardison
3rd - Marcus... errrr. Damn. We're all out of Marcuses. Arie Kouandjio I guess?

If Cameron Erving were actually going to be available at 32 I'd change this around quite a bit, but only because he's the type of player I think has "Bill Belichick" written all over him.

You could have Markus Golden.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not sure who this "CB panic" statement is directed at, but for my part:

1. I didn't evaluate CBs properly before we lost Revis so any grading of CBs by myself as first rounders now is not about panic, but because I'm now properly evaluating them.

2. Byron Jones is my #1 CB. I had him graded as a first rounder before Revis left so I'm confident with that grade.

3. Kevin Johnson and Marcus Peters are the two other CBs I'd take in the first. That's only three. Like Patchick, I wouldn't "reach" for a CB if those three are gone.

4. Daniel Jeremiah graded Byron Jones as a top 50 pick before the combine. Let's not forget, Chandler Jones was graded as a third rounder pre-combine in 2012 (I believe). His rise up the boards was a quick and late one.

5. Still don't believe there's better value at DT. In fact, I think the value at DT in the first is not good.

I agree with a lot of this, with some slight differences.

- Most of us didn't evaluate the CB class carefully before we lost Revis and Browner.
- Like you, but in slightly different order, I have Peters, Jones and Johnson as my top 3 CBs, and consider all 3 worthy of the #32 pick. I wouldn't "reach" for other guys at #32, though I might trade back.
- EDGE is less of a need since we signed Jabaal Sheard, and (like you) I'm not overwhelmed by the DTs likely to be within range at #32.

As I mentioned in my post above, right now I have only Todd Gurley rated ahead of Marcus Peters. And I don't have too many guys ahead of Jones or Johnson.

 

[patfanken]

I'm not sure who this "CB panic" statement is directed at, but for my part:

1. I didn't evaluate CBs properly before we lost Revis so any grading of CBs by myself as first rounders now is not about panic, but because I'm now properly evaluating them.

2. Byron Jones is my #1 CB. I had him graded as a first rounder before Revis left so I'm confident with that grade.

3. Kevin Johnson and Marcus Peters are the two other CBs I'd take in the first. That's only three. Like Patchick, I wouldn't "reach" for a CB if those three are gone.

4. Daniel Jeremiah graded Byron Jones as a top 50 pick before the combine. Let's not forget, Chandler Jones was graded as a third rounder pre-combine in 2012 (I believe). His rise up the boards was a quick and late one.

5. Still don't believe there's better value at DT. In fact, I think the value at DT in the first is not good.

I wasn't directing it at anyone, Manx. But I found it odd that before Revis left, CB wasn't even a consideration for this draft, and now suddenly it has become "must have". IIRC, you were the person who stated that the Pats have some decent CB's now, just not any stars, or a true #1. That struck me as a truism. And it made me think. For years around here, despite the fact of having a top 5 offense year in and year out, people have decried the lack of a "true #1 WR". We've proven for a long time, you can have a top offense, WITHOUT having that true #1.

So it got me to thinking, that maybe, you can have a competent defense (top 10 in scoring D), WITHOUT having a true #1 CB

2. Here's a question I have. Are any of the top 3 CB's out there really any better than the 2 CB's BB picked up in FA. Or maybe a better question would be, would any of those 3 guys be better than Fletcher or Chickwa.... for next season?

The thing is we've seen so many much higher regarded CB's like Milliner and Gilbert, disappoint early in their careers. What chance do we have that whomever we get at #32 can step right in and start on this team.

 

[mgteich]

In another thread today, I wrote:


Beyond that I have some positional preferences, but I can imagine the draft unfolding in a variety of ways.

Below is my list of preferred prospects for each of the three top target positions, in alphabetical order. (Obviously, feel free to improve on my suggestions!) What I'm pondering is, assuming you want to walk away with a player from every list, what's the best strategy for achieving that? E.g., is a first pick at CB simply a necessity?

CB
Kevin Johnson
Byron Jones
Marcus Peters

DT
Malcolm Brown
Carl Davis
Marcus Hardison
and maybe Grady Jarrett

OL
T.J. Clemmings
La'el Collins
Cameron Erving
Jake Fisher
D.J. Humphries
Ali Marpet
and maybe Cedric Ogbuehi, Donovan Smith

CORNER
Yes, I believe that we need to use our 1st for a corner. This could he with a trade up, or down a bit if the run on corners doesn't happen. I would even use our second to move up if necessary.

DT and OL
Two of your players might be available at 96 and 97. Draftek has us getting Marpet and Jarrett with those picks. It would seem that it reasonable to believe that the end of the 3rd would be the place to draft a DT and an OG.

Obviously, we could move up if Belichick didn't want to wait. We have pick 101 to play with to move up in the third.

BOTTOM LINE
As of now, we could get a top corner at 32 and both a DT and an OL by the end of the 3rd.

ALTERNATIVE
Use #32 for Fisher and use 101 and/or 96 to move up in the second to get a corner, and sit tight at 97 for an OL
===========================

 

[Brady6]

I wasn't directing it at anyone, Manx. But I found it odd that before Revis left, CB wasn't even a consideration for this draft, and now suddenly it has become "must have". IIRC, you were the person who stated that the Pats have some decent CB's now, just not any stars, or a true #1. That struck me as a truism. And it made me think. For years around here, despite the fact of having a top 5 offense year in and year out, people have decried the lack of a "true #1 WR". We've proven for a long time, you can have a top offense, WITHOUT having that true #1.

So it got me to thinking, that maybe, you can have a competent defense (top 10 in scoring D), WITHOUT having a true #1 CB

2. Here's a question I have. Are any of the top 3 CB's out there really any better than the 2 CB's BB picked up in FA. Or maybe a better question would be, would any of those 3 guys be better than Fletcher or Chickwa.... for next season?

The thing is we've seen so many much higher regarded CB's like Milliner and Gilbert, disappoint early in their careers. What chance do we have that whomever we get at #32 can step right in and start on this team.

You find it odd that we lost are 2 starting CBs one of which was the top CB in the game and now most view CB as the biggest need on the team? Really? What is odd about that, I find it odd that you do not see any need to prioritize drafting a CB early given the current group of CBs we have.

You named 2 questionable picks but gazed over the teams they played on and the situation, also you overlook players like Kyle Fuller, Bradley Roby, Desmond Trufant, Tyran Mathieu, and others who have stepped in and contributed right away. Besides we don't need the CB to start day one, we can progress him slowly just like with Jamie Collins as a rookie. What matters is how he plays at the end of the year and the playoffs.

Not sure if I need to remind you that if not for a rookie CB we likely wouldn't have won the SB.

 

[Brady6]

CORNER
Yes, I believe that we need to use our 1st for a corner. This could he with a trade up, or down a bit if the run on corners doesn't happen. I would even use our second to move up if necessary.

DT and OL
Two of your players might be available at 96 and 97. Draftek has us getting Marpet and Jarrett with those picks. It would seem that it reasonable to believe that the end of the 3rd would be the place to draft a DT and an OG.

Obviously, we could move up if Belichick didn't want to wait. We have pick 101 to play with to move up in the third.

BOTTOM LINE
As of now, we could get a top corner at 32 and both a DT and an OL by the end of the 3rd.

ALTERNATIVE
Use #32 for Fisher and use 101 and/or 96 to move up in the second to get a corner, and sit tight at 97 for an OL
===========================

I'm all in for Marpet. I think Fisher is a good looking player but unless you don't think we are going to keep Solder I'm not sure I see a tremendous need, except if you moved him inside but I would be fine waiting and taking Marpet.

I have no interest in Jarrett. I think he is a terrible fit for this team and would not even be as good as Chris Jones.

 

[mgteich]

I'm all in for Marpet. I think Fisher is a good looking player but unless you don't think we are going to keep Solder I'm not sure I see a tremendous need, except if you moved him inside but I would be fine waiting and taking Marpet.

I have no interest in Jarrett. I think he is a terrible fit for this team and would not even be as good as Chris Jones.

Many NFL left guards played LT in college. I would draft Fisher, expecting him to start at LG.

 

[mgteich]

I'm all in for Marpet. I think Fisher is a good looking player but unless you don't think we are going to keep Solder I'm not sure I see a tremendous need, except if you moved him inside but I would be fine waiting and taking Marpet.

I have no interest in Jarrett. I think he is a terrible fit for this team and would not even be as good as Chris Jones.

Jarrett is a placeholder. Many think that he is a good fit for us. HOWEVER, the point of this thread is to consider draft strategies that would yield us a top corner, and an early round OL and DT. I believe that we can get a DT in the last half of the third, likely with one of our three existing picks. I'll trust Belichick's choice with regard to which individual player figures to be better than Chris Jones. I have no secret knowledge that the analysts are wrong in their evaluation of Jarrett. However, that isn't the point. The point is that I believe that we can get a contributor at DT in the first 101 picks of the draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

I found it odd that before Revis left, CB wasn't even a consideration for this draft, and now suddenly it has become "must have".

There was lots of discussing about CBs on the draft board prior to losing Revis and Browner. Go look at the defensive blueprint thread, for example. Many people advocated using a day 3 pick or even a late day 2 pick on a developmental CB to pipeline, given that Revis and Browner would both be on the wrong side of 30. Quentin Rollins, Eric Rowe, Byron Jones, Josh Shaw and Nick Marshall all were discussed. So were Alex Carter, PJ Williams, Ronald Darby, and others. There was also some discussion about whether the Pats should take Marcus Peters if he fell. But all of the discussion was in the context that with Revis and Browner, CB was a "luxury" rather than a short-term need.

I don't think it's unreasonable to shift the discussion given the loss of Revis and Browner in FA. Free agency affects draft plans. There was discussion last year of drafting a CB early, which pretty much disappeared once Revis and Browner were signed. The signing of Jabaal Sheard certainly decreased the value of an EDGE rusher/rotational DE like Owamagbe Odighizuwa, who was a very popular potential choice on this board up to 2 weeks ago. There is no "must have" scenario, IMO, but there is certainly a greater impetus to focus on the CB position as one that could be addressed early in the draft.

IIRC, you were the person who stated that the Pats have some decent CB's now, just not any stars, or a true #1. That struck me as a truism. And it made me think. For years around here, despite the fact of having a top 5 offense year in and year out, people have decried the lack of a "true #1 WR". We've proven for a long time, you can have a top offense, WITHOUT having that true #1.

So it got me to thinking, that maybe, you can have a competent defense (top 10 in scoring D), WITHOUT having a true #1 CB

I don't know if you need to have a true #1 CB. But you need good ones. The Bills had a very good defense last year without a dominant CB (though they had 2 top-11 draft picks in Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin). The Steelers had a top defense for years without a shutdown CB; Ike Taylor and William Gay were solid, but not spectacular.

What I DO think that you need are big, physical CBs who can match up with the bigger WRs, as well as smaller, quicker guys. And I think that those guys have value. They don't have to be 1st rounders, but good ones are valuable, at any point in the draft.

2. Here's a question I have. Are any of the top 3 CB's out there really any better than the 2 CB's BB picked up in FA. Or maybe a better question would be, would any of those 3 guys be better than Fletcher or Chickwa.... for next season?

The thing is we've seen so many much higher regarded CB's like Milliner and Gilbert, disappoint early in their careers. What chance do we have that whomever we get at #32 can step right in and start on this team.

I think it's a cardinal mistake to draft for an immediate starter. To quote Patchick, "The draft isn't primarily about plugging holes for this fall, it's the ongoing talent pipeline that is the lifeblood of any well-run team."

 

[manxman2601]

I have no interest in Jarrett. I think he is a terrible fit for this team and would not even be as good as Chris Jones.

What! So wrong. And even if it wasn't, what's wrong with getting a two year starter in the third round?