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In rewatching this amazing game yet again last night, I kept a running tally of all of the times where all hope was lost, basically, unless the very next play were to pan out.
Some are obvious: the 4th down pass to Amendola when down 28-3, and the two 2 point conversions. But there seemed to be to be 10 plays in total that I'd put into that category, where not making a play would make winning nearly impossible. Most were 3rd and long conversions, or defensive plays to stop a FG attempt.
The list. Plays where the Patriots faced a do-or-die situation, on either offense or defense, where failure in that one play would make winning the game almost impossible:
1) Patriots 4th & 3 at NE 46 (6:04 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to D.Amendola pushed ob at ATL 37 for 17 yards (D.Campbell). Failure would have meant turnover on downs, 25 points behind.
2) Patriots 3rd & 8 at ATL 35 (4:49 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady scrambles up the middle to ATL 20 for 15 yards (R.Alford). Failure would have meant 4th and 8 and a 53 FG attempt or a low percentage 4th down attempt.
3) Falcons 3rd & 11 at NE 42 (0:52 - 3rd) (Shotgun) M.Ryan sacked at ATL 49 for -9 yards (sack split by K.Van Noy and T.Flowers). Allowing even a short gain of 5 or more yards would have permitted a FG attempt with a reasonable chance of success.
4) Patriots 4th & Goal at ATL 15 (9:44 - 4th) Stephen Gostkowski 33 Yd Field Goal. Missing this would have meant a lead larger than 2 scores.
5) Falcons 3rd & 1 at ATL 36 (8:31 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan sacked at ATL 25 for -11 yards (D.Hightower). FUMBLES (D.Hightower) [D.Hightower], RECOVERED by NE-A.Branch at ATL 25. A.Branch to ATL 25. Conversion of 3rd and short would have cost 2+ minutes on the clock and would have cost 50+ yards of field position, relative to the fumble recovery.
6) Patriots 3rd & 11 at ATL 26 (7:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to M.Mitchell to ATL 14 for 12 yards (C.Goodwin). Failure would have meant 4th and 11 and a very low percentage 4th down attempt.
7) Patriots 2 point conversion attempt (5:56 - 4th). J.White rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Missing this would have meant 2 scores were required to win.
8) Falcons 3rd & 23 at NE 35 (3:50 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short left to M.Sanu pushed ob at NE 26 for 9 yards (L.Ryan). PENALTY on ATL-J.Matthews, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 35 - No Play. If Chris Long had not drawn holding, ATL would have had a 43 FG attempt. The hold, plus a sack on the following play, prevented even trying.
9) Patriots 3rd & 10 at NE 9 (3:17 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to C.Hogan to NE 25 for 16 yards (J.Collins). Failure would have meant 4th and 10 and a very low percentage 4th down attempt.
10) Patriots 2 point conversion attempt (0:57 - 4th) T.Brady pass to D.Amendola is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Missing this would have meant another score was required to win.
OT there were no 3rd down or 4th down plays. One could say that the coin flip was pretty important, though!
What are the chances of pulling off all 10 plays? Pretty low, I'd think.
Some are obvious: the 4th down pass to Amendola when down 28-3, and the two 2 point conversions. But there seemed to be to be 10 plays in total that I'd put into that category, where not making a play would make winning nearly impossible. Most were 3rd and long conversions, or defensive plays to stop a FG attempt.
The list. Plays where the Patriots faced a do-or-die situation, on either offense or defense, where failure in that one play would make winning the game almost impossible:
1) Patriots 4th & 3 at NE 46 (6:04 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to D.Amendola pushed ob at ATL 37 for 17 yards (D.Campbell). Failure would have meant turnover on downs, 25 points behind.
2) Patriots 3rd & 8 at ATL 35 (4:49 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady scrambles up the middle to ATL 20 for 15 yards (R.Alford). Failure would have meant 4th and 8 and a 53 FG attempt or a low percentage 4th down attempt.
3) Falcons 3rd & 11 at NE 42 (0:52 - 3rd) (Shotgun) M.Ryan sacked at ATL 49 for -9 yards (sack split by K.Van Noy and T.Flowers). Allowing even a short gain of 5 or more yards would have permitted a FG attempt with a reasonable chance of success.
4) Patriots 4th & Goal at ATL 15 (9:44 - 4th) Stephen Gostkowski 33 Yd Field Goal. Missing this would have meant a lead larger than 2 scores.
5) Falcons 3rd & 1 at ATL 36 (8:31 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan sacked at ATL 25 for -11 yards (D.Hightower). FUMBLES (D.Hightower) [D.Hightower], RECOVERED by NE-A.Branch at ATL 25. A.Branch to ATL 25. Conversion of 3rd and short would have cost 2+ minutes on the clock and would have cost 50+ yards of field position, relative to the fumble recovery.
6) Patriots 3rd & 11 at ATL 26 (7:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to M.Mitchell to ATL 14 for 12 yards (C.Goodwin). Failure would have meant 4th and 11 and a very low percentage 4th down attempt.
7) Patriots 2 point conversion attempt (5:56 - 4th). J.White rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Missing this would have meant 2 scores were required to win.
8) Falcons 3rd & 23 at NE 35 (3:50 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short left to M.Sanu pushed ob at NE 26 for 9 yards (L.Ryan). PENALTY on ATL-J.Matthews, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 35 - No Play. If Chris Long had not drawn holding, ATL would have had a 43 FG attempt. The hold, plus a sack on the following play, prevented even trying.
9) Patriots 3rd & 10 at NE 9 (3:17 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to C.Hogan to NE 25 for 16 yards (J.Collins). Failure would have meant 4th and 10 and a very low percentage 4th down attempt.
10) Patriots 2 point conversion attempt (0:57 - 4th) T.Brady pass to D.Amendola is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Missing this would have meant another score was required to win.
OT there were no 3rd down or 4th down plays. One could say that the coin flip was pretty important, though!
What are the chances of pulling off all 10 plays? Pretty low, I'd think.