I'm not sure that the chart is correct. They don't have Blount's new contract up, so the Pats are currently at 5 lost, 3 gained, for a net of 2. So Long shouldn't be up there, but somehow he is. (The cancellation chart is correct.)
I think the chart is correct.
Prior to Blount's signing, Mingo cancelled out Guy, and Long cancelled out Burkhead - and Margus Hunt was worth the Mr. Irrelevant pick.
NOW, Blount cancels out Guy, Mingo cancels out Burkhead and Long becomes the Mr. Irrelevant pick, kicking Hunt out of the top 32.
Remember, though, these are merely the current educated guess
projections. They're subject to change. For a player to count in the formula, he has to complete a certain amount of his contract, IIRC. E.g., if Long is cut at the end of Camp, he no longer counts as part of the formula for either team.
The guys at OverTheCap had speculated last week, right after Blount was tendered, that the Pats made the move more to protect their 4th and 5th round comps than to gain a 7th.
For instance, in the absence of a Blount signing, if Long was cut in Camp, and no longer part of the formula, the Pats would have actually lost only 4 free agents against 3 gained and would lose probably the fifth for Bennett.
Also, these projections are based on the total contract value, regardless of incentives. For instance, if Long plays and earns his entire $2.25M, but Blount fails to achieve many of his incentives and nets only $1.8M, then Blount drops out of the top 32 and the 7th for Long goes away.
The reason that comp picks aren't officially awarded until after the end of the season is so that actual earnings can be tallied.