Pat_Nasty said:
I've actually watched 4 of 7 Colts games all the way through this year. I watched @NYG, @NYJ (I live in NYC, it was the 1pm game before the Pats played the Bengals) , @WAS (Was on TV after Pats @ BUF) and the Denver game (went out to a sports bar to watch this one.)
I saw zero stiffening vs. the Jets, Giants, and obviously, vs. the Broncos. These teams all were picking up good yardage, fairly easily, on the ground in the 2nd half of games. This is not an unusual proposition, as teams usually have more success on the ground in the 2nd half, after wearing down the opposing defense.
I agree that the defense can wear down and give up more yards in the second half. I pasted a breakdown of the colts 1st half vs 2nd half rushing yards allowed.
Pat_Nasty said:
If the Colts don't take a big lead and force the other team out of the run, they've been run on very well in the 2nd half of games. The only exception was vs. Jacksonville, where the Colts' D started selling out vs. the run entirely, and Leftwhich was unable to make them pay for it. I think Brady will do just fine if they start putting 9 in the box.
That is only true in the Skins game. They put up 20 points in the 3rd quarter opening up a big lead and they actually ran for more yards in the second half.
The only other game that they blew open or scored quickly in the 3rd quarter was the Broncos game and the Broncos rushed for 180 yards in the second half.
Pat_Nasty said:
As for the "problem" of long runs making us score too quickly to control the clock: it's possible, but I'm not sure I'd call it probable. Against the Colts, clock control is as important in the first half -- where we're less likely to see 20+ yard runs -- as it is in the 2nd half. Teams have mounted 8+ minute drives on the Colts. Others have gotten impatient, and let the Colts' offense pressure them into feeling the need to score quickly. If we can be calm, and rip off some long scoring drives in the first half, we'll be in great shape for the 2nd.
They have only given up three 8+ minute drives all season (Jags 8:55 2H, Jets 8:40 2H, Denver 8:54 2H) and three other drives of over 7 minutes (Giants 7:50, Jags 7:29, Skins 7:35) The Jagaurs were the only team to have two drives of 7 minutes or more.
Here is a breakdown of the Colts first half rushing vs second half rushing.
Giants
1st half 13 carries for 98 yards
2nd half 14 carries for 88 yards
Texans
1st half 13 carries for 51 yards
2nd half 8 carries for 56 yards (27 yard draw when the Colts were in prevent)
Jaguars
1st half 28 carries for 158 yards
2nd half 12 carries for 40 yards
Jets
1st half 19 carries for 61 yards
2nd half 16 carries for 69 yards
Titans
1st half 21 carries for 152 yards
2nd half 10 carries for 62 yards
Redskins
1st half 11 carries for 61 yards
2nd half 13 carries for 67 yards
Denver
1st half 15 carries for 47 yards
2nd half 21 carries for 180 yards
The Giants, Jets and Redskins ran the ball consistently against them in both carries and yards gained.
The Texans ran the ball best in the first half and in the second half had the one draw that went for 27 yards when they were down big in the 4th quarter.
The Jags and Titans had huge differences between the first and second half.
The Broncos are the one abnormality, they had 7 carries for 10+ yards (12,11,10,19,14,28 and 48) in the second half.
In the games where they gave up big yards in the 1st half they came back and gave up less than 50% in the second half, with the exception of the season opener.