side effect of all the passing in Minn.

[zippo59]

That would be a mistake because against the COlts you cant risk errors and keep the game close.

Passing early,and often, putting points onthe board, forcing them to make mistakes is how to win this game.

They expect us to run...so we need to do the opposite.

Why does it have to be one or the other. We shouldn't go run heavy, nor should we go pass heavy. Balance is when an offense is at its best, and this defense can not defend both at the same time.

 

[PlattsFan]

I would think one of the big problems the Colts will face is not just in a general defensive sense, but I just don't see how they stop the Pats in the red zone. The Patriots are a great red-zone running team this year, and they are just gonna blow the Colts off the line down near the goal line.

Conversely, I don't see the Colts doing so well in the red zone. Addai and Rhodes aren't pound-it-in type runners, and the Pats pass defense stiffens immensely near the goal line.

My bet is that the yardage differential won't be that great (it is the Colts in the regular season, after all), but the Pats will win fairly comfortably because of much greater red-zone efficiency. The only thing that Pats have to do on D is avoid TD throws of 25+ yards, and they'll win, imo.

 

[mgcolby]

I've actually watched 4 of 7 Colts games all the way through this year. I watched @NYG, @NYJ (I live in NYC, it was the 1pm game before the Pats played the Bengals) , @WAS (Was on TV after Pats @ BUF) and the Denver game (went out to a sports bar to watch this one.)

I saw zero stiffening vs. the Jets, Giants, and obviously, vs. the Broncos. These teams all were picking up good yardage, fairly easily, on the ground in the 2nd half of games. This is not an unusual proposition, as teams usually have more success on the ground in the 2nd half, after wearing down the opposing defense.

I agree that the defense can wear down and give up more yards in the second half. I pasted a breakdown of the colts 1st half vs 2nd half rushing yards allowed.

If the Colts don't take a big lead and force the other team out of the run, they've been run on very well in the 2nd half of games. The only exception was vs. Jacksonville, where the Colts' D started selling out vs. the run entirely, and Leftwhich was unable to make them pay for it. I think Brady will do just fine if they start putting 9 in the box.

That is only true in the Skins game. They put up 20 points in the 3rd quarter opening up a big lead and they actually ran for more yards in the second half.

The only other game that they blew open or scored quickly in the 3rd quarter was the Broncos game and the Broncos rushed for 180 yards in the second half.

As for the "problem" of long runs making us score too quickly to control the clock: it's possible, but I'm not sure I'd call it probable. Against the Colts, clock control is as important in the first half -- where we're less likely to see 20+ yard runs -- as it is in the 2nd half. Teams have mounted 8+ minute drives on the Colts. Others have gotten impatient, and let the Colts' offense pressure them into feeling the need to score quickly. If we can be calm, and rip off some long scoring drives in the first half, we'll be in great shape for the 2nd.

They have only given up three 8+ minute drives all season (Jags 8:55 2H, Jets 8:40 2H, Denver 8:54 2H) and three other drives of over 7 minutes (Giants 7:50, Jags 7:29, Skins 7:35) The Jagaurs were the only team to have two drives of 7 minutes or more.


Here is a breakdown of the Colts first half rushing vs second half rushing.


Giants
1st half 13 carries for 98 yards
2nd half 14 carries for 88 yards

Texans
1st half 13 carries for 51 yards
2nd half 8 carries for 56 yards (27 yard draw when the Colts were in prevent)

Jaguars
1st half 28 carries for 158 yards
2nd half 12 carries for 40 yards

Jets
1st half 19 carries for 61 yards
2nd half 16 carries for 69 yards

Titans
1st half 21 carries for 152 yards
2nd half 10 carries for 62 yards

Redskins
1st half 11 carries for 61 yards
2nd half 13 carries for 67 yards

Denver
1st half 15 carries for 47 yards
2nd half 21 carries for 180 yards

The Giants, Jets and Redskins ran the ball consistently against them in both carries and yards gained.

The Texans ran the ball best in the first half and in the second half had the one draw that went for 27 yards when they were down big in the 4th quarter.

The Jags and Titans had huge differences between the first and second half.

The Broncos are the one abnormality, they had 7 carries for 10+ yards (12,11,10,19,14,28 and 48) in the second half.

In the games where they gave up big yards in the 1st half they came back and gave up less than 50% in the second half, with the exception of the season opener.

 

[Pat_Nasty]

Wow. Nice, thorough research...

...but I still don't think there's really a significant trend toward the Colts stiffening in the 2nd half.

In 4 out of 7 games, the Colts did not show any stiffening -- @NYG, @NYJ, @WAS, @DEN. (Coincidentally, the four Colts games I watched. Possibly less coincidentally, all road games.)

Of the three in which there is some statistical indiction of their run D improving in the 2nd half, I'll grant you the Jaguars. I watched a lot of video + read enough about that game to know that, after getting gashed by the draw play early, the Colts started really selling out vs. the run, daring Leftwhich to beat them over the middle. He couldn't, and the gambit payed off.

As for the Titans game -- Tennessee still ran the ball at a 6.2 ypc clip in the 2nd half, even without Young breaking off long scrambles, and with Henry getting hurt in the 3rd. Furthermore, at this point, it had become apparent that Vince Young wasn't throwing well, so the Colts were able to once again sell out vs. the run.

 

[mgcolby]

Wow. Nice, thorough research...

...but I still don't think there's really a significant trend toward the Colts stiffening in the 2nd half.

In 4 out of 7 games, the Colts did not show any stiffening -- @NYG, @NYJ, @WAS, @DEN. (Coincidentally, the four Colts games I watched. Possibly less coincidentally, all road games.)

Of the three in which there is some statistical indiction of their run D improving in the 2nd half, I'll grant you the Jaguars. I watched a lot of video + read enough about that game to know that, after getting gashed by the draw play early, the Colts started really selling out vs. the run, daring Leftwhich to beat them over the middle. He couldn't, and the gambit payed off.

As for the Titans game -- Tennessee still ran the ball at a 6.2 ypc clip in the 2nd half, even without Young breaking off long scrambles, and with Henry getting hurt in the 3rd. Furthermore, at this point, it had become apparent that Vince Young wasn't throwing well, so the Colts were able to once again sell out vs. the run.

I was surprised by the results as well, I guess the dramatic differentials stuck out in my mind more than the games where the rushing was consistent.

I agree with you on the Jags game Leftwich just couldn't come through for his team and the turnovers killed them. Tennessee should never have been in that situation to begin with just a terrible game by the Colts (not to take anything away from the Titans).

The research is fun and it is a down day at work so it gave me something to do.

 

[Kdo5]

Basically what this is is...

Peyton Manning vs the Pats

 

[LA Pats Fan]

The Run Offense was rested.

Someone mentioned Graham, but Steve Neil - perhaps the Best Run Oline also was rested.

Think we will run right side?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

if they have klecko playing defensive line they're in trouble

 

[edgecy]

a lot of talks have been focused on what we can do to our D, and a lot of discussions are on how to best attack the Colts' D. We are fairly confident that we can move the ball both ways but one discussion I have not seen is: how do we stop the Colts' offense? I know that some here think that by running the ball we can control the clock, but eventually you will run out of real estate to run the ball and you'd be "forced" to score, in that case the Colts offense will be out scoring TDs again.

So, how do we stop them? To me, the question is not whether we can score or not, the question is whether we can keep Peyton off the field, and if we can't, how can we stop him from scoring?