Should we anticipate a running back controversy this offseason?

[DaBruinz]

Really? James White? Have you watched him play? He looks great when nobody is near him just like he did in his Wisconsin tape but as soon as he gets tackled he drops like an anchor.

The fact that the Bills DB couldn't tackle White at the end of the half was absolutely pitiful...just pitiful! But I loved seeing how angry wrecks was.

Usually when someone gets tackled, they drop like an anchor. But I have news for you. White has made some good plays where he's broken some attempted tackles and gotten YAC. In fact, he did so on the play that got called back because of the BS call on Martin. But I guess only those of us watching the games would know that.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Iosefa has a spot in camp because he has no choice. He is an ERFA playing for peanuts. I usually start my expectations with those players who are already signed and ERFA's.

Develin may very well be re-signed. However, I would note that he is an UFA coming back from an injury.

He's actually an RFA coming back from injury who, apparently, is well-liked by the entire team. I expect he'll be back.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Blount was averaging 4.3 yards a carry before he got hurt so yeah he was doing pretty good. There's just nothing sexy about Blount's game so we tend to **** on him a lot.

It's not about sexy(at least for me), it's about him looking indecisive and lacking what seems like a more killer instinct seen in past seasons.
I could be wrong and even hope I'm wrong. But unless there is a physical or personal issue going on that has hampered him, what I have observed just isn't the Blount I'd expect. And I assume one viable reason for that is a lack of enthusiasm. Again I hope I am wrong and/or it is an ailment or something along those lines. Otherwise I believe it is fair to wonder if he is losing his enthusiasm (something critical to a job in the NFL).

 

[Love The Drake]

My guess is he is fighting some kind of nagging injury he is running too timid this season.
May bode well to get him in the stable cheap next year.

 

[Love The Drake]

Do you think we stay in house for our new OC or go with a coach vet like Norv Turner?

 

[mgteich]

I think it's much more likely that the Pats draft someone in the 3rd round than it is they bring in a veteran. Why? Because we have a lot of young players that will need to be signed to extensions/new contracts within the next 2 years, including Butler, Collins, Jones, and Hightower, and Ryan. Akiem Hicks number keeps going up with every week that he excels.. There is only so much money to go around. And Miguel already has the Pats at $154M or so.. Granted, they'll free up money with Signing Jones and Hightower to extensions, but I don't see them dropping a ton of cash/cap on a vet RB.

a ton of cash/cap on a veteran? No, of course not. I was thinking of someone like Blount.

With regard to Hicks, I think that he'll make a lot of money somewhere else, as our 2014 heroes did.

 

[meatface]

It's not about sexy(at least for me), it's about him looking indecisive and lacking what seems like a more killer instinct seen in past seasons.
I could be wrong and even hope I'm wrong. But unless there is a physical or personal issue going on that has hampered him, what I have observed just isn't the Blount I'd expect. And I assume one viable reason for that is a lack of enthusiasm. Again I hope I am wrong and/or it is an ailment or something along those lines. Otherwise I believe it is fair to wonder if he is losing his enthusiasm (something critical to a job in the NFL).

I think he is just the type of back who looks for a hole, especially considering that's the kind of back he has always been. I suppose you may just not like that kind of back but you can't really argue with results and he was getting 4.2 ypc which is better than a lot of other backs out there.

 

[supafly]

Do you think we stay in house for our new OC or go with a coach vet like Norv Turner?

In house, all the way. No doubt about it. This is still Belichick and Brady's team, and they'll have use for someone who's had experience/knowledge in the system. I couldn't imagine them going for an outsider, especially one with a big name. No major changes are coming to our system, that's for sure.

 

[supafly]

a ton of cash/cap on a veteran? No, of course not. I was thinking of someone like Blount.

With regard to Hicks, I think that he'll make a lot of money somewhere else, as our 2014 heroes did.

I'm guessing that it'll be the usual blend of low/middle tier FAs and draft picks, especially considering that we didn't take anyone this past spring. Maybe a pick or two AND a guy like Blount for competition? That would be nice.

As far as Hicks goes, yeah--if history repeats itself, we're much more likely to see him as a nice role player that moves on in the spring, just like we see every single year. That said, maybe they can reach a cheap yet fair deal with him? I'm not sure that I'd see the need to spend too much, but that's for Belichick to decide.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I definitely think that we should let Blount go in the off season. He really didn't do anything all year. He looked pretty slow, and danced around too much. He will probably not be any faster next year. Iosefa looked to be a better power back than Blount because he doesn't dance around while looking for a hole. I wouldn't mind signing Ridley after his rehab year with the Jets. Ridley > Blount. I also think that the whole "Ridley has a fumbling problem" is extremely overblown. I'd rather have Ridley who can hit the hole fast and with Power, than Blount who stops in the backfield, and doesn't have the acceleration to get going again most times.


Lewis and White is probably a good receiving duo for next year. Always nice to have a backup.

I don't really get all the Blount hate around here. I guess because Dola started producing, it was time to pick someone new.

Blount isn't a top 5 back, I get it. And I'm not trying to pretend he's Corey Dillon. But when I read things about his dancing or not getting yards consistently, I do wonder what's going on.

Football Outsiders RB stats track something called Success Rate, which is basically a measure of how often a RB gets consistent yards to keep the offense on track to pick up a first down. It is by no means perfect, and doesn't tell whether a RB is good or bad. Just simply how often they pick up a certain number of yards depending on down and distance to keep the offense on pace. By that measure, Blount is 5th in consistency. For all the "dancing" and whatever other accusations people lob that way, he was one of the best backs in the league at getting consistent yardage.

And comparing 2014 to 2015 is tough because Blount only had 60 carries last season. I also looked at 2013 because he had a similar number of carries to this season (153) and you can see he's actually been remarkably similar in many ways. There are 3 areas where there are some big differences:

1. 20+ yard runs: he had 5 in 157 carries in 2013, 4 in 60 carries last year, 4 in 165 carries. Maybe that suggests he's lost a step. Or maybe that's just the law of averages from small sample sizes. In terms of 10+ yard runs, he had 18 in 157 (11%), 8 in 60 (13%) last year vs. 18 in 165 (11%) this year, so I think the sample sizes suggest last year was the outlier due to small number of carries.

2. The OL: Blount had 20 of his 60 runs to the left side (33%) last season, and he averaged 6.8 YPC that direction. The year before, he had 62 of his 157 carries to the left side (39%) and he averaged 6.1 YPC. This year, it was down to 30% and he's only averaging 3.1 YPC. Some of that may have to do with losing Solder, then Vollmer for a bit, then Cannon, and starting a PS 4th-option tackle in Fleming.

3. No fullback: Develin's injury may have affected Blount as well. Blount ran 24% from that formation in 2013, 33% last season, and only 12% this season. And he averaged 5.3 YPC in 2013, 3.9 YPC last season, 2.5 this season. His numbers as lone back are similar (4.6 YPC in 2013 on 97 carries, 4.9 YPC in 2014 on 28 carries vs. 4.5 YPC in 2015 on 140 carries). So the I-formation sets have been less effective overall, and that points directly to Develin's loss.

I'm not voting for Blount for the Pro Bowl or anything like that. But I think people are being overly harsh without justification. He's more or less what he's usually been, other than in some areas where we've had key injuries that have affected his production. For $2M (or half of what Vereen makes on average), I think we got our money's worth from him and I wouldn't mind seeing him come back and compete for the job again if he is willing to take a similar contract.

 

[goheels22002]

Do you think we stay in house for our new OC or go with a coach vet like Norv Turner?

Norv? He never saw a game he didn't play not to lose.

 

[AzPatsFan]

There are three types of RB that the Pats employ, under BB. There is the FB type, Devlin and now Iosefa provide a pair of these. There is the 3rd down receiving HB type also. Now Lewis and White provide a competent pair of these too. Finally there is the traditional big back RB who can survive 20+ carries per game and on which you can build a running game. Ridley and Blount used to provide a competent pair of these. Ridley signed elsewhere, and Blount is hurt. Now that position is vacant.

BB will do as he has always done, draft and also sign vet candidates to compete in this category. It is called "team building" and has little to do with acquiring stars, merely making sure that there are no holes for the opposition to exploit, and adequate depth is maintained.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Draft one, sign one. See who wins in camp.

Follow the leprechaun to the end of the rainbow...click the ruby slippers' heels together...

 

[patriot1136]

I think we gotta keep White and Lewis, they both provide a little something different and complement each other. Not to mention, who knows when Lewis will be 100% plus he is injury prone anyways. I like Blount, despite a down year, and would keep him for the right $$. As someone mentioned earlier, I wouldn't mind finding a way to bring Ridley back actually.

 

[BradyFTW!]

No on Iosefa? What he showed today is pretty close, in part, to what we need. Straight forward, North-South un-fancy power that hits the hole quick-ish, rarely if ever loses yards, most of the time will pick up 2 to 4 yards, and dishes out unmistakable punishment to the secondary when they have to make the tackle. So if he can show he can contribute by picking up a blitzer/catch a couple of shorter throws? Well, isn't this exactly why we have Develin?
Wayyy too early to say yes or no to Iosefa, however, if what he showed today is a sign of things to come? Iosefa is clearly making a case for him instead of Develin. STs and cost will be factors also.

Develin's value came a lot more in his versatility than in his straight-up running. If Iosefa can do all of the other things that Develin does, then sure, that's worth a roster spot. But purely as a runner, I think what we saw from him yesterday is about the best that we're going to see from him, and IMO that's at least part of why they're signing Steven Jackson today.

 

[BradyFTW!]

He looked like a PS player who had a pretty good game? 11 of 14 runs for 2 or more yards.. Compared to Bolden who was 5 for 10..

Smh.. And your slide continues..

One of these days, you're going to learn that you can disagree with people without chucking insults around. Or maybe not, if you've gotten to your age without moving past that third-grade mentality than I dunno why it would change now.

Like I said, we saw the best that Iosefa has to offer, and that pretty much summarizes it. Sure, he'll plow ahead and get you a few yards against a bad run defense (25th in DVOA against the run) when the interior of the line is having its best run blocking game of the season. There is real value in that, absolutely, but it's just not that hard to find, and that's why the Pats have traditionally sought out RBs who can do other stuff in addition to that. The RBs who don't offer more than that (Jonas Gray) tend not to stick around for too long.

So there's two possibilities here: either that's all Iosefa has in his repertoire, in which case he's a PS-type player who won't be here long term, or he has Develin-type versatility (which he certainly didn't show yesterday) that will keep him here long-term. Until/unless we see that he *does* have these other skills, I'm not going to assume that they're there.

If the Pats were half as high on Iosefa as you appear to be, they wouldn't have signed Stephen Jackson today.

 

[hornetfb85]

Lewis
White
Draft a bigger back
Bolden
Develin/Iosefa

 

[RobertWeathers]

One of these days, you're going to learn that you can disagree with people without chucking insults around. Or maybe not, if you've gotten to your age without learning it I dunno why that would be expected to change.

Like I said, we saw the best that Iosefa has to offer, and that pretty much summarizes it. Sure, he'll plow ahead and get you a few yards against a bad run defense (25th in DVOA against the run) when the interior of the line is having its best run blocking game of the season. There are a lot of guys hanging out on various teams' practice squads who can do that. He's a PS-caliber player who was called up for spot duty and performed capably.

If the Pats were half as high on Iosefa as you appear to be, they wouldn't have signed Stephen Jackson today.

I think having a rookie RB be your go-to power back in the playoffs is too much to ask for at this point.

With that said there isn't a lot of suddenness to his game. Could be a Heath Evans-type RB/FB.

SJax is an upgrade.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think having a rookie RB be your go-to power back in the playoffs is too much to ask at this point.

With that said there isn't a lot of suddenness to his game. Could be a Heath Evans-type RB/FB.

SJax is an upgrade.

Yeah, I think the Evans/Develin mold is the roadmap that he should be trying to follow to a sustained NFL career, because it's pretty much the only way he's going to happen. That will require him to be capable (or better) in pass protection, receiving, lead blocking, and on ST.

 

[strngplyr]

Without reading most of the thread yet due to time constraints, my thoughts:

White - isn't a runner. He's proving he has a superb pass catching ability, making tough contested catches and if given space can make guys miss. He won't break many tackles, though, which is why he struggles as a runner without given a hole to hit. Pure get-him-in-space kind of guy. Good, we need one of those.

Lewis - Can do it all, and can do it all better than probably most guys in the NFL, when healthy. He showed that very consistently until he got hurt. Durability is his issue, try to limit him to ~15 all purpose touches and we're golden with him.

Iosefa - Didn't show me anything other than a very impressive bulldozing of a safety. I wasn't expect much, and that's what we go. Granted, the OL wasn't opening many holes for him and he doesn't appear good at making his own (remember, he's a rookie still). If we put together an OL that can get him to the second level where LB's and DB's that are the same size or smaller than he can be a consistent 1,000 yard rusher.

Blount - Looked like toast in pre season, looked a little better in the regular season. He also needs an OL to get him to the second level and he becomes a runaway train. Hasn't happened as often as it has in his past two seasons. Mostly blame the OL, but Blounts first step looks even slower than it has in the past.

I think our top pick almost needs to go to a high quality pounder, someone in the mold of Ridley, 5'11, 220-225, good first step and decent speed. We SHOULD be able to find that in round two, maybe requiring a small trade up. Who do our resident draft guys like?